The most unexpected political story this year was arguably Donald Trump’s domination of the early stages of the Republican 2016 primary. But nearly as fascinating was how the rest of the GOP sought to deal with the real-estate-mogul-turned-reality-star’s unexpected rise.
Embrace him? Contain him? Dismiss him? Fight him? Those were the questions confronting the party since Trump’s entry in the race — at first viewed with mockery — in the summer. While Trump could still fall short at the ballot box, he has left his permanent stamp on the entire race and even the Republican Party as a whole.
Here’s a look at the various ways the GOP coped with the year of Donald Trump:
Donald Trump is not a serious candidate and he won’t last.
At first the idea that a New Yorker known for cheesy hotels, beauty pageants, and a reality TV show could run away with the Republican primary was laughable, literally.
“I don’t think it’s a very serious candidacy, frankly,” Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) said of Trump’s run in August, before calling some of Trump’s statements “offensive” and “simply laughable.”
Stuart Stevens — the strategist who ran Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign — penned a column that month titled “Why Trump Will Never Make the Ballot,” and Romney himself came to the same conclusion on the basis that his “party has historically nominated someone who’s a mainstream conservative.”
The establishment’s ongoing denial about ongoing strength at the polls was bolstered by data journalists who also doubted Trump’s time at the top would last.
I was like Trump before Trump made it cool.
Even before it was clear that the Summer of Trump would turn into Fall, his Republican rivals were eager to ride his initial wave and act as if his ideas were theirs all along.
“A lot of things [Trump] talked about I talked about months ago,” Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — then still in the race — said about Trump’s immigration rhetoric, a claim former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) has also made. When Trump came out — somewhat surprisingly at the time — against birthright citizenship, Carly Fiorina and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) bragged they had been concerned about the issue first.
When Trump moved on to targeting Muslims — in December opposing their immigration into the United States — Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said he had already “called for something similar,” even if he didn’t favor prohibiting immigrants purely on the basis of religion.
THIS crazy remark will be the one that ends Trump.
Trump’s penchant for off-the-cuff, over-the-top, and straight-up offensive remarks would finally catch up with him. Or at least that was the logic that followed every time it was thought Trump had “gone too far” and offended a core electoral contingency: like veterans, Iowa primary voters, or Megyn Kelly fans.
First, it was Trump’s diss that former POW and 2008 GOP nom Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was a “war hero because he was captured.” Then it was his suggestion that Megyn Kelly was mean to him at a debate because she was on her period. Predictions that Trump had somehow crossed the rubicon by insulting Iowa caucus-goers — via a tweet he later blamed on an intern — haven’t fully panned out in the polling.
And while Cruz has risen to become Trump’s major challenger in the Hawkeye State, Trump labeling Cruz a “maniac” has not turned out to be the “huge mistake” that Rush Limbaugh and other conservative radio hosts thought it was this month.
Let’s make a deal.
Fears that opposing Trump outright would prompt him to leave the GOP for a third-party run and take his supporters with him prompted more subversive tactics from the Republican establishment looking to undermine his long-term viability.
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus managed in September to convince Trump to sign a “loyalty pledge” to support whoever wins the GOP nomination (and thus, not run against him or her as an independent). At the time, some believed that Trump might as well have “signed his political death warrant.”
In months since, Trump’s lead has remained strong, pushing party elders to take their maneuvering behind close doors. In December, the Washington Post reported that Preibus, along other party officials and elites, met to discuss the possibility of a contested convention, where “the prospect of Trump nearing next year’s nominating convention in Cleveland with a significant number of delegates dominated the discussion.”
The Establishment (tries to) strikes back.
Not every Republican was afraid of taking Trump head-on. The Club For Growth was one of the first major groups to take a swing at the front runner, with an $1 million-plus ad buy, that so far hasn’t left much of a dent.
Then came the groups that were explicitly formed to destroy Trump, as well the attacks from shadow super PACs supporting Trump’s 2016 rivals.
As concerns about the damage Trump is going to the party reached a fever pitch, most — but not all — of the candidates themselves have now finally shown themselves to be willing to criticize Trump.
Maybe we just don’t understand Republican voters after all.
The ones who predicted Trump’s demise are now humbly admitting they got it wrong months ago, with the caveat that maybe they just don’t understand the modern Republican electorate.
“I have no feeling for the electorate anymore,” John Sununu — the former New Hampshire governor — told the New York Times in October. “It is not responding the way it used to. Their priorities are so different that if I tried to analyze it I’d be making it up.”
George Will is arguing now that a Trump nomination could spell the death of the conservative cause, and Bill Kristol — semi-seriously — floated starting a new conservative if Trump wins the nomination
Acceptance: Trump could win.
It took some longer than others to come to terms with the fact that the candidate who has been leading the polls for half-a-year could in fact win the nomination. For Wall Street, that realization has meant him beating an establishment candidate more attuned to their interests. For congressional Republicans, it means possibly losing GOP control of the Senate.
A leaked RNC memo shows that as early as September, the party was preparing down-the-ballot candidates for a scenario where Trump topped the ticket.
“Let’s face facts. Trump says what’s on his mind and that’s a problem,” the memo said.
That reads somewhat like the 5 stages of grief as put forth by Kübler-Ross and now the GOP is vacillating between depression and acceptance.
EDIT: I just realized it was possible to “like” the author’s posts written here. (I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer.)
I agree with the Obama people that the GOP earned this mess. Too bad we all have to suffer through. Hold out hope that the well over half of the American people would be embarrassed by a Trump Presidency will show up to vote in the GE, if it gets that far.
I remain convinced that there is only one viable solution to the “Trump” problem.
A covert fecal transplant.
I doubt that he would volunteer (thus the need for the transplant to be covert), even though I suspect it would provide enormous relief to him as well as the majority of the rest of the nation.
And even though I’m perhaps (for various unmentionable reasons), not the best candidate, I would be happy to become the donor.
I think that was the point
On a side note, I think the two best events of 2015 here at TPM were Sahil leaving and Tierney arriving.
Taking those 3 things into consideration, where’s the unlikely rise part?