I wanted to update you on the mailers story I discussed with you yesterday. Before getting to the details, I want to thank everyone who sent in reports. Really, really helpful. In fact, what I’m doing would be completely impossible without them. I’m going to assume you read yesterday’s post, which has various caveats and context. If not, you can read it here.
First, there are a lot of people talking about this independently in different swing states. Like, it’s really a thing. I was listening in on a Zoom call yesterday about a state legislative race in North Carolina and the topic actually came up — how we’re all getting spammed by these Trump mailers. And to be clear, this was a call where everyone was either a party official or a partisan Democrat or actually a candidate. From this and other discussions with TPM readers it’s clear this is being discussed as a minor mystery among Democrats in each swing state but with everyone thinking that it’s just their town or state and not something that’s happening in all the swing states.
I wanted to share with you some of my findings about the mass mailing of Trump mailers to registered Democrats in swing states across the country. It’s a bit of a rabbit hole. So in part, understand it as such, an entertaining mystery. But I think it’s potentially a bit more than a rabbit hole. It also sheds some light on the dynamics of the campaign, specifically on the Trump campaign, which has firepower heavily weighted toward a series of super PACs and outside groups both for messaging and ground operations.
As I’ve discussed in a few posts, I started hearing from readers who are registered Democrats with long histories of straight-ticket voting who are being inundated with Trump mailers. In some cases it’s as much as two or three mailers a day everyday. Others aren’t quite that level of saturation. But lots of readers who fit in what we’ll call the category of “poor target” are getting them. The reports come from all the swing states, though they’re concentrated in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina. They’re also in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, but it seems to be a bit less there. In all cases the recipients have never seen anything like it before. So it’s not just that this is what always happens in swing states. Getting this many flyers from any Republican campaign is totally new. It all seems to have started in the last couple weeks.
Here are just a few facts and observations to keep in mind as we move toward Election Day.
I have heard from numerous TPM readers in swing states, registered Democrats with long histories of voting for Democrats, who are being deluged by Trump flyers, sometimes as many as two or three new ones a day. I’ve heard from enough of them that I don’t think this is just a few people on the wrong list. I think it’s something more general. In the cases where I’ve been able to ask, it’s either mostly or all from Trump super PACs rather than the campaign itself. I don’t know yet whether this is evidence of very inefficient spending or whether the spending is so mammoth that this is in effect the splash created by unprecedented levels of spending.
I live in Western PA, and do my best to do some driving tours of the areas outside of the metropole I live in during campaign season, and what I see are a lot fewer signs out in those area for Trump. Also can back up this thing about mailers….our household, which should not in any sense be thought of as GOP-curious, is receiving a TON of these pro-Trump and anti-Harris fliers. One of the biggest talking points is that Harris is going to gut Medicare and Social Security (because inflation makes all spending go less far, I guess?) while Trump will defend Medicare and Social Security (these materials actually feature quotes from him telling the GOP to keep their hands off of our entitlements).
The New York state judge presiding over Donald Trump’s hush money case pushed the GOP candidate’s sentencing until past the November election, saying in a Friday order that the upcoming election had played a role in his decision.
In a call with donors, First Liberty Institute’s Kelly Shackelford read the supportive email he said came from Thomas. The leader of the religious-rights group also labeled Justice Elena Kagan “treasonous” for backing a stronger ethics code.
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