With the latest “peace deal” now perhaps receding into what we might call the eternal “two weeks,” I wanted to provide some mix of guidance or thoughts on what is going on. How do we go from a peace deal that is all but inked (despite only being a ceasefire and agreement to negotiate) to now where the deal is drifting off into the distance and Trump is adding new demands on Truth Social?

Let’s go back to the fundamentals.

We’re still getting conflicting reports about what is contained in the memorandum of understanding reportedly about to be signed by the United States and Iran. Both sides are describing different details; neither has released any text and neither is a reliable narrator. But the big picture is fairly clear. It’s not a peace agreement, just a longer ceasefire. And the terms just revert everything to the status quo ante before the war with a promise to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program.

Take this for what you will but in this piece the NYT seems to be coming around to a point I’ve been making for the last three or four months: “Mr. Trump has decided to double down, presenting himself as politically all-powerful even in the face of indications that he is not.”