The Latest
A Quick Survey of Numbers, Vibes and the Inner Lives of Campaigns Prime Badge
05.16.24 | 3:28 pm

In yesterday’s podcast Kate and I discussed that NYT-Siena poll (way overplayed and exaggerated but still not great for Biden) and the debate story which was literally continuing to break and change while we recorded the pod. The two stories intersect in some interesting ways.

The Times said: “The early-debate gambit from Mr. Biden amounted to a public acknowledgment that he is trailing in his re-election bid, and a bet that an accelerated debate timeline will force voters to tune back into politics and confront the possibility of Mr. Trump returning to power.”

A public acknowledgement!

In recent days I’ve been in a running conversation with several Times staffers about Times coverage, some private, some on social media, trying to both keep it real and keep it calm. When I saw this line it struck me as part of that subtext of so much Times coverage, at least going back months and in many ways much longer, of “Joe, stop playing games and admit you’re behind. Admit you’re behind, Joe!”

Listen To This: For Whom The Bell Polls
05.16.24 | 12:24 pm

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh analyze the presidential polling landscape plus some breaking news about the debates.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Detroit Rises From Rock Bottom With Its First Population Increase Since the 1950s
INSIDE: Michael Cohen ... Matt Gaetz ... Clarence Thomas
05.16.24 | 9:28 am
A New, Big Crack in Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Prime Badge
05.15.24 | 6:05 pm

I wanted to update you on an important development in Israel and the Israel-Hamas war. There have been a few of these blow-ups in the far-right Netanyahu coalition. But they’ve all gotten hashed out and patched up eventually because, as we’ve discussed, the government’s very unpopularity is, paradoxically, its greatest adhesive in holding on to power. Since October, coalition members have known they’d lose power in a new election. So no one has really been willing to trigger new elections — the recent polls have shown some limited recovery of Netanyahu’s fortunes.

In any case, here’s the latest thing.

Trump Tries To Appear Aggressive On Debates, Too
This is your TPM evening briefing.
05.15.24 | 5:50 pm
Biden Throws Down Gauntlet In Taunting Trump To Debate
INSIDE: Michael Cohen ... Rudy G ... Angela Alsobrooks
05.15.24 | 9:20 am