First, on the speech … rock solid. I doubt her advisors and press people thought it could have gone much better. At the beginning I thought it might be understated somehow. Not bad at all, but understated, a bit quieter than we expect from these speeches. But as it progressed I realized she was developing an emotional audience, in person and on television. This came through later in the speech when she ranged from intense to boisterous to categorical. It worked with a mixture of intensity and authenticity. There’s no point in my doing more interpreting of the speech. It hit every point and hit every one well. The most telling comments were those from Republican commentators who couldn’t find their way around saying that it was a strong speech before, of course, reassuring listeners that Harris is obviously terrible and they agree with her about nothing.

Some other points are less obvious.

Some thoughts on the evening shortly.

Let me expand a bit on the RFK Jr. discussion from yesterday. It’s now clear that Kennedy will drop out tomorrow and that he will endorse Trump. I mean, clear as anything with two confirmed weirdos can be. But that’s what all the big publications are reporting, so we’ll assume that’s the case. I went through the numbers again and looked closely at what those most immersed in them think. If we look strictly at the numbers, the odds are likely that Trump gains some modest benefit. But it’s very modest. Elliott Morris, new top guy at 538, has become one of my go-tos on these things. He looked at their data which says that Kennedy dropping out of the race loses Harris two-tenths of a percentage point on her current lead. That’s not nothing in a race we all know will be very close. But it’s not far from nothing.

My only take tonight is that I feel confident that Kamala Harris made the right decision picking Tim Walz. Walz is good in his own right. But he complements Harris, tonally, culturally. This was the right call.

If you haven’t seen, just in the last hour or so there are indications that RFK Jr is planning to drop out of the race and endorse Donald Trump. Kennedy’s campaign has put out word that he’ll be giving a speech about the “path forward” in Phoenix. And people are noting that Trump is supposed to be in Phoenix Friday too. The reporting suggests that the Kennedy people are signaling something like an endorsement. But who knows. That’s what it looks like to me. But we will know Friday, if not sooner.

A few points on this. The first one is that there’s some evidence that Kennedy is now hurting Trump more than Harris. Obviously Trump thinks so or he wouldn’t be trying to get Kennedy to drop out. Polls suggest that the balance changed after Harris got into the race. The more Dem-adjacent supporters basically went to Harris. So in this still very tight race, this could hurt Harris in the horse race numbers.

Well, there it is. We just flew past our goal of raising $500,000 in this year’s annual TPM Journalism Fund drive. We’re currently at $503,822. I want to say just a big, big thank you. We started this year’s drive with a relative confidence we could hit this mark. But you simply never know. Each year people’s moods are different. The economy is different. And these are just very big numbers. Each new time is really like a trust fall all over again. I personally want to thank the whole TPM team whose collective work this result is based on. The site promos will stay up a bit longer. And of course you are very welcome to continue contribute. Every extra dollar will be put to very good use. But this was our critical goal. So this will be my last post pitching you on this year’s drive.

Truly, we thank you. I thank you. We couldn’t be happier and prouder.

We are down to under $35,000 $31,000 $12,000 $10,000 before we hit $500,000. We’re in the final countdown. I’m trying to balance my and our excitement that we’re going to hit the goal with whatever encouragement I can give you to help us get past the finish line. But I’ll just say we’re so pumped and also … well, this is a great time to contribute! Just click here.