From TPM Reader GS, the email that I referred to in the previous post up earlier this evening …

We still know very little about the shooter – but perhaps he has more in common with the way too common mass shooters rather than Lee Harvey Oswald or Sirhan Sirhan. 

There is the young age and apparent social rejection/isolation, and also the obv suicidal nature of trying to kill a heavily guarded former President from an exposed and visible position. 

We do not know that at this point, but if that turns out to be the case, then that is a completely different social context. Then it is not yet another case of political violence but yet another case of the epidemic of mass shootings, usually by young men. 

There are a handful of new polls which have come out in the last 24 hours, all before the events of yesterday afternoon. They each show Biden either one or two points behind or the same margin ahead, with the average leaning toward the former. This is roughly back, though not quite, to where they were the day before the debate.

Political violence and especially electoral violence strike at the heart of the open, free and democratic choice-making upon which our civic democratic system and the legitimacy of its choices are based. We must condemn it in every instance as well as expressing our personal sympathy for its victims. We do so not to box check some vague concept of civility or comity but because it strikes at the taproot of civil peace. It is equally not a license to squelch political speech or in this case threaten or intimidate those calling attention to the real and profound dangers of Donald Trump returning to the White House. We are already seeing this attempt in the making.

A few days ago, at the heart of the Biden bonfire, I told someone: Do you really imagine that the next four months are going to unfold in a straight line from the sentiment of this inflamed moment without half a dozen other things happening you didn’t predict or even imagine?

This still applies.

We now have more information on the questions I discussed below. We now appear to have a better idea of where the shooter was and how Secret Service agents were able to shoot and kill the shooter only a few seconds after he opened fire. It appears the distance between the rooftop and the stage was more like 150 yards. The building in question was a large single story building just outside the security perimeter of the event. Much closer and just to the side of the stage was another building, with a higher roof. On the roof, with a commanding over the whole area was a Secret Service counter-sniper team. It appears that some onlookers noticed that gunman on the roof and began trying to alert police and/or Secret Service agents on the ground. At this point the counter-snipers either saw the gunman on their own or perhaps heard warnings about someone on the roof in their earpieces.

So it appears they were already looking to see what was going on before the gunman fired his first shots. Quite possible this was only a matter of a few seconds. But this helps explain why they were able to shoot the gunman dead only a few seconds after he opened fire. If you see the map of the buildings in question the counter-snipers would have had a direct and unobstructed line of sight toward the shooter.

As far as we know, what happened today is that a gunman, on a roof of a low building (apparently one story) outside the rally security perimeter, shot at Donald Trump and either hit him with a grazing wound to the ear or, according to other reports, shattered the teleprompter plexiglass and shards of plexiglass struck his ear. Sort of same difference, slightly different modality.

It appears this person was firing at a relatively long range, estimates I’ve heard of 200 or 300 yards. The gunman would presumably need to plan in advance and find a rooftop from which he or she could get a direct line of sight to the stage. It’s apparently a low building in an area that is very flat. So you couldn’t assume you’d have a direct line of sight from a one story building. There’s some advance work required. Not everyone can shoot at that distance. (An AR-15 style weapon has reported been recovered at the scene.) So this isn’t a situation like getting a handgun and going into an unsecured environment which almost anyone can do. This requires planning in advance and some level of firearms knowledge. Not everyone could do this.

From our records the Trump campaign announced this event on July 3rd. So the date and location was known for at least ten days. That’s a relatively short window of time.

No particular message here, just my effort to think through the amount of advance work required, the time available to do it, and the kinds of skills required to make the attempt.

Late Update: Newer reports from CNN’s Evan Perez say that the building in question was more like 150 yards from the stage and apparently a building, unsecured, right outside the security perimeter. Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. But there are going to be some pretty big questions why that rooftop wasn’t secured.

8:18 PM: The local DA is speaking now on CNN. We’ve had reports of what he said. He’s been the source of reports about the spectator and the gunman being killed. He’s repeated that. No new news as far as I can tell other than the second bystander being in, I believe he said, “serious” condition. Says he hasn’t been given any information about the identity of the shooter.

8:12 PM: We’re now seeing reports that Trump was hit not by a bullet but by glass fragments from the plexiglass shields which are there to protect the President. This doesn’t dramatically change the nature of what happened. It’s still the result of an attempt to shoot Trump. But it gives a clearer understanding of precisely what happened and shows, if these accounts are true, that one of the basic protective measures worked.

7:52 PM: We’ve had a basic question from the beginning how someone with a gun could have gotten into a presidential event where everyone goes through a magnetometer. We now have what I believe are reliable reports that the shooter was outside the security perimeter. The area is open and flat. There is no high ground for a shooter to fire from. It appears the shooter got onto the roof of nearby, low building and was able to have a line of sight toward the stage. We now have confirmation that it was the Secret Service that returned fire and killed the shooter. So it appears that the shooter was killed in the first moments of the incident.

7:42 PM: We now have clearer confirmation: Shooter dead; one bystander dead; one bystander with serious injuries.

7:33 PM: Just wanted to connect a few dots and address some issues that seemed unclear at first. It now appears that someone opened fire toward and presumably targeting Trump. It appears Trump was grazed on the ear by a bullet fired by that person. He was tackled and covered by Secret Service. There was then a second volley of shots after which a Secret Service agent can be heard saying “shooter down.” That appears to have been when the shooter was shot and killed, presumably by other Secret Service agents. We now have pretty clear reporting that the shooter is dead. That is presumably why Trump was then moved to the limousine and why the crowd was fairly quickly given an all clear, only a couple minutes after the incident.

7:27 PM: I want to speak carefully because in a chaotic situation initial reports are often wrong or incomplete. With those caveats, it seems clear now based on multiple reports that the shooter was likely killed immediately after the initial incident which we can now probably call a shooting. (The term “neutralized” is being used.) Local authorities are saying that one bystander is dead and possibly a second one. Other reports say a second bystander is hospitalized in serious condition. It’s possible two different bystanders are being discussed. Again, it’s a chaotic situation. Finally, we are getting clearer indication of what was suspected, that this was a shooting incident, law enforcement references to a “shooter”, “shooting” etc. Again, seemed clear but any question that this might have been a few firecrackers going off can likely be set aside.

Update III: This is still sketchy reporting. But reporters are going back to listen closely to the Secret Service chatter in real time. They appear to hear one volley of shots, then Trump goes down. Then there’s another volley and Secret Service appear to say “shooter down.” Again, this is all choppy real-time reporting, possibly subject to change. But this would possibly explain why there was such a rapid all clear only a minute or two after the incident happened. CNN’s John Miller said he thought there was someone in custody. But again, early reporting subject to change.

Update II: Further reporting on CNN that Trump is “fine,” apparently getting checked out at a local hospital. But all signs suggest this is just a once over as opposed to getting specific medical treatment. But again, that’s speculation. The statement from spokesperson Steven Cheung is that he is “fine” and getting examined. It’s worth remembering that not infrequently in situations like this there can be injuries that aren’t detected at first. So doctors will want to do a thorough examination.

Update: Secret Service says former president is “safe”.

Original Alert: As you may have seen there appears to have been a shooting of some sort at a Trump rally just a very short time ago. Let me say what we know. A Trump rally was just underway in Butler, PA. There were a series of loud bangs. Trump appeared to grab his right ear and dropped to the ground. Dropped in the sense of jumped for cover, not collapsed. He was then swarmed by Secret Service agents and hustled to his armored limousine. As he was hustled off the stage he was clearly fully alert. He appeared to have blood around his right ear, which is the part of the body he appeared to grab as things were happening.

It appears that someone fired shots at Trump, though we don’t know that yet.

Another detail is that authorities appeared to quickly give an all clear to the crowd after Trump was taken from the scene. That would seem to suggest that whoever did this was captured very quickly. Though to be clear, that part is purely an inference on my part.

At present there is no official word on Trump’s status, though I want to emphasize that Trump did not appear in any way incapacitated or injured as he was taken away beside the blood on the ear. He appeared to be walking fully under his own power but surrounded by Secret Service agents providing a cordon around him as he was evacuated.

We will bring you more information as we learn more.

I’ve done so many big picture posts in recent days I’m going to let myself do a more zoomed in one. In all the antic craziness of the last two weeks we’ve seen a number of people, either cheering or dreading, saying that not only will Joe Biden lose but he’ll bring down Congress and all sorts of down ballot Democrats. I believe, just intuitively, that these claims are almost all the product of media hysteria, in some cases fanned by Trump campaign trash talk. But if you look down at the nitty gritty of public and private polling there’s something more specific happening, a set of data mixed with non-crazy but still possible assumptions.