As far as we know, what happened today is that a gunman, on a roof of a low building (apparently one story) outside the rally security perimeter, shot at Donald Trump and either hit him with a grazing wound to the ear or, according to other reports, shattered the teleprompter plexiglass and shards of plexiglass struck his ear. Sort of same difference, slightly different modality.

It appears this person was firing at a relatively long range, estimates I’ve heard of 200 or 300 yards. The gunman would presumably need to plan in advance and find a rooftop from which he or she could get a direct line of sight to the stage. It’s apparently a low building in an area that is very flat. So you couldn’t assume you’d have a direct line of sight from a one story building. There’s some advance work required. Not everyone can shoot at that distance. (An AR-15 style weapon has reported been recovered at the scene.) So this isn’t a situation like getting a handgun and going into an unsecured environment which almost anyone can do. This requires planning in advance and some level of firearms knowledge. Not everyone could do this.

From our records the Trump campaign announced this event on July 3rd. So the date and location was known for at least ten days. That’s a relatively short window of time.

No particular message here, just my effort to think through the amount of advance work required, the time available to do it, and the kinds of skills required to make the attempt.

Late Update: Newer reports from CNN’s Evan Perez say that the building in question was more like 150 yards from the stage and apparently a building, unsecured, right outside the security perimeter. Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. But there are going to be some pretty big questions why that rooftop wasn’t secured.

8:18 PM: The local DA is speaking now on CNN. We’ve had reports of what he said. He’s been the source of reports about the spectator and the gunman being killed. He’s repeated that. No new news as far as I can tell other than the second bystander being in, I believe he said, “serious” condition. Says he hasn’t been given any information about the identity of the shooter.

8:12 PM: We’re now seeing reports that Trump was hit not by a bullet but by glass fragments from the plexiglass shields which are there to protect the President. This doesn’t dramatically change the nature of what happened. It’s still the result of an attempt to shoot Trump. But it gives a clearer understanding of precisely what happened and shows, if these accounts are true, that one of the basic protective measures worked.

7:52 PM: We’ve had a basic question from the beginning how someone with a gun could have gotten into a presidential event where everyone goes through a magnetometer. We now have what I believe are reliable reports that the shooter was outside the security perimeter. The area is open and flat. There is no high ground for a shooter to fire from. It appears the shooter got onto the roof of nearby, low building and was able to have a line of sight toward the stage. We now have confirmation that it was the Secret Service that returned fire and killed the shooter. So it appears that the shooter was killed in the first moments of the incident.

7:42 PM: We now have clearer confirmation: Shooter dead; one bystander dead; one bystander with serious injuries.

7:33 PM: Just wanted to connect a few dots and address some issues that seemed unclear at first. It now appears that someone opened fire toward and presumably targeting Trump. It appears Trump was grazed on the ear by a bullet fired by that person. He was tackled and covered by Secret Service. There was then a second volley of shots after which a Secret Service agent can be heard saying “shooter down.” That appears to have been when the shooter was shot and killed, presumably by other Secret Service agents. We now have pretty clear reporting that the shooter is dead. That is presumably why Trump was then moved to the limousine and why the crowd was fairly quickly given an all clear, only a couple minutes after the incident.

7:27 PM: I want to speak carefully because in a chaotic situation initial reports are often wrong or incomplete. With those caveats, it seems clear now based on multiple reports that the shooter was likely killed immediately after the initial incident which we can now probably call a shooting. (The term “neutralized” is being used.) Local authorities are saying that one bystander is dead and possibly a second one. Other reports say a second bystander is hospitalized in serious condition. It’s possible two different bystanders are being discussed. Again, it’s a chaotic situation. Finally, we are getting clearer indication of what was suspected, that this was a shooting incident, law enforcement references to a “shooter”, “shooting” etc. Again, seemed clear but any question that this might have been a few firecrackers going off can likely be set aside.

Update III: This is still sketchy reporting. But reporters are going back to listen closely to the Secret Service chatter in real time. They appear to hear one volley of shots, then Trump goes down. Then there’s another volley and Secret Service appear to say “shooter down.” Again, this is all choppy real-time reporting, possibly subject to change. But this would possibly explain why there was such a rapid all clear only a minute or two after the incident happened. CNN’s John Miller said he thought there was someone in custody. But again, early reporting subject to change.

Update II: Further reporting on CNN that Trump is “fine,” apparently getting checked out at a local hospital. But all signs suggest this is just a once over as opposed to getting specific medical treatment. But again, that’s speculation. The statement from spokesperson Steven Cheung is that he is “fine” and getting examined. It’s worth remembering that not infrequently in situations like this there can be injuries that aren’t detected at first. So doctors will want to do a thorough examination.

Update: Secret Service says former president is “safe”.

Original Alert: As you may have seen there appears to have been a shooting of some sort at a Trump rally just a very short time ago. Let me say what we know. A Trump rally was just underway in Butler, PA. There were a series of loud bangs. Trump appeared to grab his right ear and dropped to the ground. Dropped in the sense of jumped for cover, not collapsed. He was then swarmed by Secret Service agents and hustled to his armored limousine. As he was hustled off the stage he was clearly fully alert. He appeared to have blood around his right ear, which is the part of the body he appeared to grab as things were happening.

It appears that someone fired shots at Trump, though we don’t know that yet.

Another detail is that authorities appeared to quickly give an all clear to the crowd after Trump was taken from the scene. That would seem to suggest that whoever did this was captured very quickly. Though to be clear, that part is purely an inference on my part.

At present there is no official word on Trump’s status, though I want to emphasize that Trump did not appear in any way incapacitated or injured as he was taken away beside the blood on the ear. He appeared to be walking fully under his own power but surrounded by Secret Service agents providing a cordon around him as he was evacuated.

We will bring you more information as we learn more.

I’ve done so many big picture posts in recent days I’m going to let myself do a more zoomed in one. In all the antic craziness of the last two weeks we’ve seen a number of people, either cheering or dreading, saying that not only will Joe Biden lose but he’ll bring down Congress and all sorts of down ballot Democrats. I believe, just intuitively, that these claims are almost all the product of media hysteria, in some cases fanned by Trump campaign trash talk. But if you look down at the nitty gritty of public and private polling there’s something more specific happening, a set of data mixed with non-crazy but still possible assumptions.

A fairly vitriolic note from TPM Reader JD …

Just to be clear, I was absolutely on team Biden is the nominee and anything else is crazy before the debate. And I’ve tried to be measured in my emails since, but I’m kind of reaching my limit with the Ridin for Bidens. So this is for all the readers who think the solution is uniting behind Biden because of dominance politics or whatever: you cannot construct some facade of strength around a man who is so evidently, pitifully weak. Not in an election in a democracy where he has to actually appear in public. What do you think the rest of this campaign is going to be like after the Democrats fall in line? Just for starters, what do you think’s gonna happen with this next debate in September?

From TPM Reader WH …

I echo AO’s sentiment. While I agree with yesterday’s Morning Memo that the coverage has morphed into a feeding frenzy that’s lost sight of the bigger picture, the Biden team totally blew any chance they had at a reset following the debate. All of the endorsements and kumbayas came days late, and what we have seen lately feels insipid and clumsy. Leaning heavily upon the big group of Democratic voters that’s currently uneasy about Joe dropping out will not solidify the coalition, whereas the only remaining opportunity to get everybody on the same page isBiden himself making it clear that defeating Trump and his agenda is a collective priority that’s bigger than any individual. 

From TPM Reader SS …

I didn’t watch the debate for various reasons (was on vacation and busy with kids.).    From the clips I saw, yeah it wasn’t good.   When I heard about the subsequent rallies I relaxed a bit and went on with the rest of our vacation.  Then I came back…