Josh Marshall
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about Moms for Liberty and Moms for Liberty-adjacent, right-wing school board moms like Bridget Ziegler and Clarice Schillinger, it’s that they know how to party. You’ll remember that late last year Schillinger, a one-time candidate for Lt. Gov of Pennsylvania and the head of a major anti-woke school board group in the state, was charged with a mix of offenses related to allegedly assaulting and boozing up minors at her daughter’s 17th birthday party. After a preliminary hearing on Monday, Magisterial District Judge Stacy Wertman held Schillinger over for trial on the same charges after hearing reality TV-style testimony about Schillinger’s, her mom’s and her then-boyfriend’s feral behavior corrupting the youth of Bucks County Pennsylvania — and in some cases just beating the crap out of the youth of Bucks County when they simply tried to escape her house.
Schillinger was released on her own recognizance pending trial.
Let’s go to the video (metaphorically speaking)…!
Read MoreHere is a brief postscript to yesterday’s post about UNRWA. As I noted, Israel shared a dossier of intelligence which purported to show that roughly a dozen UNRWA employees were not only affiliated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad but directly participated in the death squad massacres in southern Israel on October 7th. The intelligence appears to have been detailed, precise and basically incontrovertible, as judged both by journalists who have reviewed portions of the dossier and the response of various government funders. A growing list of governments, beginning with the U.S. but now including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and others, have suspended funding in response. As far as I can tell no one connected to UNRWA has disputed the claims about the specific staffers and they’ve all been fired.
But there’s something that doesn’t quite seem to fit about the response. It seems at least a bit more than you’d expect.
Read MoreThe Department of Defense has identified the three soldiers killed in the drone attack on the undisclosed U.S. base in Jordan. They are Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, GA; Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, GA; and Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, GA. The three were assigned Fort Moore, Georgia and deployed near the Syrian border as part of the U.S.’s on-going fight against the Islamic State.
Politico’s “West Wing Playbook” is out tonight with a report about the pro-Palestine “Ceasefire Now’ protestors which are showing up at basically every Biden event.
Here’s the lede of the newsletter which gives a taste of it …
Read MoreYou’ve probably seen the stories about the UN Agency which allegedly had amongst its employees Hamas operatives who directly participated in the October 7th massacres in southern Israel. The story is both more and less than it seems. The background helps illuminate this as well as much of what we’ve seen over the last three months.
United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was founded in 1949 to administer refugee camps for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who had either fled the fighting or were driven out by the Israeli military during both phases of the Israeli War of Independence, what Palestinians call The Nakba. (Most of this happened during the first phase of the war.) There were camps in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. Those camps are still there 75 years later. “Camps” is a misnomer. Over time permanent buildings replaced temporary structures and tents. Schools, hospitals, civic buildings and businesses grew up. They are more like towns, or districts of towns. The vast majority of residents of the camps are third and fourth generation descendants of the original refugees of 1947-48. Under UNRWA’s framework they are also refugees. UNRWA still plays a central role administering these communities — running schools, hospitals, various civil services.
Read MoreIn the lead up to the 2022 midterm, I tried in vain to argue that Democrats needed to frame the election around a concrete promise to pass a law codifying Roe v Wade. Keep the House and the Senate and Democrats would pass a Roe law on a simple majority vote in the Senate. One of my takeaways from the 2022 election ended up being that voters to a great extent didn’t need politicians to spell it out for them. Voters understood the stakes well enough on their own and saw that abortion bans and presidential coups were all part of the same story of MAGA Republican extremism. But I have little question that making the promise more concrete and specific would have had an additional impact.
Yesterday President Biden on Twitter (and presumably via other channels) came pretty close to making that promise for the 2024 election.
This should absolutely be a centerpiece of the 2024 campaign.
Read MoreConventional wisdom can evolve in unexpected and unpredictable ways. Conventional wisdom isn’t necessarily valid, of course. The “conventional” label hints that it’s probably not, or at least that it’s incomplete. But conventional wisdom, regardless of its merits, can shape how real world events are perceived and thus the reality of how they unfold. I say all this as preface to note that the day-after reactions to the New Hampshire primary results seemed a bit different from what we heard and saw that night.
Kate Riga mentioned this in the podcast episode we recorded yesterday. We heard all these wild things on Tuesday night about Trump’s resounding victory, how the nomination race is essentially over. And of course it is over if we’re talking about whether or not Trump is going to be the nominee. But I’m seeing more and more comment from the insider commentators and newsletters finally getting around to the idea that while these results almost certainly lock down the nomination, they show general election weakness rather than strength.
Read MoreLet’s come back to last night’s result. We’ve now had two contests on the Republican side. Donald Trump won 51% of the vote in Iowa (on the GOP side it’s not actually a caucus, just a straight vote) and 54% in New Hampshire. These are at best a thin showing for a former president who remains head of his party. David Kurtz is right that it’s hard to know just what the standard should be when the whole situation is so unprecedented and absurd. The rule in modern American politics is that when you lose a presidential election your career in politics is over. Add to that trying to overthrow the government and facing about a hundred felony indictments and you’d think that would be enough. But that’s obviously not the case. This is the world we’re living in.
Read MoreWhile the Republican primary got the most attention last night, there was a Democratic contest too.
So let’s look at those results.
President Biden didn’t campaign in the state because New Hampshire refused to abide by the DNC’s new primary calendar which put South Carolina and Nevada at the front of the nomination line. His name didn’t appear on the ballot either. He appears on track to get a bit over 65% of the vote as a write-in. He’s likely one of the few and possibly only presidential candidate ever to win a primary as a write-in.
Read MoreLet’s call this a split decision. Not terrible for Trump. But definitely not great either. Losing would have been terrible. (Terrible on the way to winning the nomination.) At the moment Trump is beating Haley by about 54% to 45%, which isn’t a lot better. That margin may go up two or three points. As we knew last night and a year ago last night, Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. But having a candidate who is basically no more than a stand-in for opposition to Trump pulling upwards of 50% is definitely suboptimal for him, to put it mildly.
Earlier today I said that Haley’s threshold was somewhere between 35% and 40%. She’s coming in at 45%. That’s solid.
Watching Trump speak tonight I got the sense that he was one of the few people watching the results tonight who realized this was kind of embarrassing for him.
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