Josh Marshall
While the Republican primary got the most attention last night, there was a Democratic contest too.
So let’s look at those results.
President Biden didn’t campaign in the state because New Hampshire refused to abide by the DNC’s new primary calendar which put South Carolina and Nevada at the front of the nomination line. His name didn’t appear on the ballot either. He appears on track to get a bit over 65% of the vote as a write-in. He’s likely one of the few and possibly only presidential candidate ever to win a primary as a write-in.
Read MoreLet’s call this a split decision. Not terrible for Trump. But definitely not great either. Losing would have been terrible. (Terrible on the way to winning the nomination.) At the moment Trump is beating Haley by about 54% to 45%, which isn’t a lot better. That margin may go up two or three points. As we knew last night and a year ago last night, Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. But having a candidate who is basically no more than a stand-in for opposition to Trump pulling upwards of 50% is definitely suboptimal for him, to put it mildly.
Earlier today I said that Haley’s threshold was somewhere between 35% and 40%. She’s coming in at 45%. That’s solid.
Watching Trump speak tonight I got the sense that he was one of the few people watching the results tonight who realized this was kind of embarrassing for him.
Read MoreTonight is the night of the first and very likely the last meaningful primary of the 2024 primary calendar. Polls suggest a similar outcome to what we saw last week in Iowa: a bare majority for Trump, which in a normal contest would be a big win but is less clearly so when the candidate is the party leader and de facto incumbent. The difference is that unlike in Iowa where most of the remaining vote was split between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, now most will go to Haley.
People will be talking all day about just where we should place the thresholds over which Haley overperforms and keeps some semblance of a faux primary campaign going or Trump does the same and gets everyone to finally admit that this thing is completely absolutely done.
I’d put the number for Haley somewhere between 35% and 40%. For Trump, maybe if he goes over 60%. The truth is I have no idea. By any reasonable calculus, if she can’t win in New Hampshire she can’t win anywhere. And really … it doesn’t matter. We’re talking about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when there actually is no pin.
Read MoreLast week I pointed to signs that with Ron DeSantis’s campaign flatlining post-Iowa, Donald Trump was ready to settle scores with everyone who had backed DeSantis when he appeared to many to pose a genuine threat to Trump. The President and his top strategist strongly hinted that he would back a primary challenge (by Virginia ultra-Trumper John McGuire) against Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, who happens to the be newly elected chairman of the Freedom Caucus. Now it’s looking like that really will happen, or at least that Good has a serious problem on his hands.
Yesterday afternoon Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene went on Twitter to endorse state Senator McGuire, Good’s challenger. Among other things she calls Good “an angry, disloyal, MAGA traitor who was caught on camera trashing President Trump and doing everything he could to defeat President Trump. Bob Good is NO GOOD and cannot be trusted.”
Read MoreI wanted to flag to your attention this piece in the Times about the end of Ron DeSantis’s campaign. It contains a lot of themes you’re certainly familiar with. But I found it striking. Because it cuts through a lot of the pablum of conventional news coverage about how Trump operates and what Trump is about. In short, it explains how Trump devoted a solid year to a ritual and often sexualized humiliation of DeSantis which reached its crescendo in demonstrating that DeSantis was — in the face of Trump’s assault — unwilling or unable to defend himself. That last point was key. To the extent Trump was making an “argument” in the form of a performative and cacophonous psycho-sexual assault, it was DeSantis who made the final case about himself.
By taking it. By not fighting back. By making a fool of himself. By being, in the Trump right’s vivid degenerate phantasmagoria, a total cuck.
Read MoreI wrote a few days ago that Ron DeSantis’s long campaign collapse was likely the most ignominious and vertiginous in the presidential primary era, which dates in stages from the 1960s and early 1970s. Some skeptics pointed to Jeb! in 2016 or Rudy Giuliani in 2008. But on a closer inspection neither flameout measures up to Ron’s. As evidenced by his legendary “Please clap” mix of exhortation and lament, Jeb! had an uncanny degree of self-awareness about the impending collapse of his succession plans that would cheat him of the prize. Giuliani had the political press in his hands. But his attempt to corner the 9/11 market was never enough to overcome his heterodoxy on issues like gay rights or serial-philandering in an earlier version of the Republican Party where those things mattered. His strategy of sitting out the early primaries and waiting until Florida, while a nice foreshadowing of Florida’s future as the home of Trumpism, was always correctly identified as a way to post-date the end of his campaign. Even the 9/11 brand was too long in the tooth by 2007. Joe Biden was able to make him a punch line with his famous one-liner.
The truth though is that DeSantis never had a chance. His humiliation was preordained and basically certain. Professional Republicans were at least a bit soured on Trump after the 2022 election, which seemed to make clear what 2018 and 2020 had strongly suggested: that Trump is an electoral loser. For professional Republicans there’s a bit more to it though. They’re completely down with Trump and Trumpism, as the last seven years have shown clearly enough. But they’re always going to have an eye out to move on. Part of what it means to be a political professional is to have a wandering eye for the new political horse, the new candidate, the new rising star, which is the usual path to professional advancement. More generously, it’s why you get into political work in the first place.
A Republican Party ruled by Donald Trump is one in which true advancement and greatness is always stymied and, to the extent it exists, always subject to his whims.
Read MoreYou’ve likely seen there’s now a dispute over what was said in President Biden’s and Prime Minister Netanyahu latest phone call. Unnamed senior administration officials say Netanyahu made clear he’s not necessarily opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state, despite having categorically ruled it out a day before. After those comments from the White House Netanyahu’s office put out a new statement insisting he said no such thing.
This is quite significant but not because of the specifics of what was said or potential support for a two-state solution. Opposition to a Palestinian state is the most consistent and defining element of Netanyahu’s career in politics going back four decades. Given what a schemer he is, though, I think it’s likely he did say some version of this in the call with Biden. But the real issue here is that saying this publicly is something the White House knew would immediately cause Netanyahu trouble with members of his coalition. He would have to respond and deny it. This is best seen as the White House signaling its done with Netanyahu or at least moving toward a more adversarial stance toward his government.
I’m not saying we’re in the process of some big dramatic break. But the consequences of doing this were and are obvious. So best seen in that context.
This is mainly just a goof on Ron DeSantis’s ridiculous presidential campaign. But it’s weird and funny enough that I thought I’d share it with you. Clearly Ron DeSantis’s campaign is flatlining about to go down in the history books as one of the most ignominious and vertiginous collapses in presidential primary campaign history. But TPM Reader RS just let me know that despite filing in a lot of other state’s he’ll never get to, DeSantis’s campaign somehow forgot to file paperwork to be a candidate in the New York State Republican primary.
Read MoreIt’s been clear for some weeks that there is growing division in the Israeli war cabinet. Now it appears to be breaking into the open, with indications that a new election could come sooner than later.
First a bit of stage-setting and context to explain the moving pieces and what this all might or might not mean.
On October 7th, the day of the Hamas massacres in southern Israel, Israel was led by a narrow and very right-wing coalition government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel had been embroiled for most of the previous year in a highly polarized fight over the government’s effort to dramatically curtail the power of the country’s Supreme Court. The massacres shattered the public’s confidence in Netanyahu, which had kept him in power since 2009 with only one intermission in 2021 and 2022. Soon after the outbreak of the current war, Netanyahu was able to bring one of the two main opposition parties, National Union, into his government.
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