One big mystery about today’s events in Israel, which I alluded to in the previous post, is how exactly Israel was caught quite this unprepared. An attack of this scale required very large numbers of people to be read into the preparations if not the operational planning for the attack. Israel has long had a dense network of informants and collaborators in the territories. That’s layered over with signals intelligence and various forms of surveillance. And yet Israel appears to have been caught totally unawares and unprepared. It’s not just that they didn’t know something like this was happening today. They don’t seem to have known that an operation of this scale and audacity was even being considered.

That’s an intelligence failure that’s hard to overstate.

For more on the last day’s events in Israel, I recommend the sources and the list I noted in the post immediately before this one.

The following are just some best guesses on my part and what I would call guidance in where to find the best information and how to think about what is unfolding.

The first point is that Israel has been in a state of political paralysis and stalemate for the better part of a year. Both leaders of the opposition have now offered to join an emergency national unity government for the duration of this conflict. I’ve seen people saying maybe this is how Netanyahu finally puts his political problems behind him because of national unity in the face of war. Alternatively, that the opposition leaders are being craven in offering to join.

If you’re looking for information on the coordinated Hamas attacks in southern Israel I recommend this Twitter list of (mostly) English language news sources from Israel, if you’re on Twitter. The Times of Israel, the English language version of Haaretz and Ynet are also good. This is one of those moments when I need to remind people that often when we don’t cover something that doesn’t mean we don’t think it’s important. Often it’s because we have nothing unique to add. If you’re just waking to this, what happened overnight (US time) in southern Israel is dramatically different from the occasional rounds of rocket fire from Gaza we’ve seen over the last couple decades. The initial reports are still chaotic and incomplete. It’s unclear how much has or will happen in other areas. But the gist is that in addition to rocket fire Hamas was able to launch a big and highly successful operation in which it infiltrated large numbers of paramilitaries into many Israeli towns in the South of the country, mostly but not only in the areas bordering Gaza.

These fighters went into these Israeli towns lighting homes on fire, killing at least dozens of civilians, wounding hundreds and taking a still unclear number of civilians and soldiers hostage. Some appear to have been taken back into Gaza. Some are now part of active hostage situations within those Israeli towns as the IDF streams into these towns in force. Hamas is claiming to have captured “high level” IDF officers. But as yet there have been no details or solid confirmation of that.

As I write the latest numbers are more than 100 killed in Israel and more than 800 wounded. Reports suggest about twice each of those numbers in the Israeli retaliation which followed the attack according to Palestinian authorities, though both sets of numbers should be seen as tentative and almost certain to rise.

Something funny is happening. A bit out of the blue the country’s big media organizations have started noting something peculiar. Ex-President Trump’s rhetoric has grown increasingly violent over the course of 2023 with an escalating round of threats against his perceived political enemies. Those messages go out loud and clear to his supporters. But they’re either muted or ignored by much of the mainstream press which has focused on discussions about President Biden’s age, Kamala Harris’s experience and popularity and the like. This isn’t a new observation. We’ve noted this dynamic repeatedly, as recently as a couple weeks ago. But suddenly the bigs themselves are noting it.

One thing that is becoming clear from the tip sheets is that at least some GOP conference members are waking up and smelling the coffee on Jim Jordan’s record from that college wrestler molestation scandal.

To refresh your memory: Before Jordan got into politics he was an assistant wrestling coach (1987-1995) at Ohio State. He claims he didn’t know the team doctor was sexually molesting team members. But apparently it was an open secret and a number of team members from the time claim Jordan knew. They go on TV and say it.

You probably haven’t heard of “Podiumgate.” I’ve been kicking myself for the last week or so because there’s been so much going on and this story is so convoluted that I haven’t made time to write about it. But it’s the kind of story I’ve always loved. And it’s a big story, even if, for the moment, it’s almost entirely contained within Arkansas. So in this post I’m going to try to give you the outline, to catch you up so we can keep tabs on it going forward. It’s so convoluted that I may get some points wrong or at least get some points of emphasis wrong. But bear with me because you’ll be glad you did.

It all starts back in June when Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas takes a trade delegation to Paris, France to drum up business for Arkansas. She was visiting an aerospace trade show and aerospace and defense actually make up a significant amount of the state’s exports. (And yes, I’m withholding some details about what went down in Paris to build up dramatic tension. You have to keep reading.)

Everyone was rightly shocked at how rapidly events unfolded yesterday. We’re now getting the first signs that the degree of fracture and the centrifugal forces unleashed by McCarthy’s ouster may be more chaotic and protracted in their impact than most first imagined.

Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman said this afternoon that no one in the GOP caucus thinks a new Speaker will actually be elected by next Wednesday, when the election has at least tentatively been scheduled. A look at the news suggests why. At least one House Republican has announced that he will not support any candidate who doesn’t require that the 1 vote motion to vacate rule be changed. Many more are demanding a change without yet making it a categorical demand, though seems like just a matter of time. Marjorie Greene says she will not support any Speaker who supports more Ukraine aid. Meanwhile it’s almost impossible to imagine that Matt Gaetz and his crew would give up this power over any future Speaker. Why would they? The current crisis can’t be ended without their votes.

Do Matt Gaetz and his confederates agree to give up their 1 vote motion to vacate rule for the new Speaker? Hard to imagine. Why would they? On the other hand, what potential Speaker would possibley consent to enter the office on the basis of Kevin McCarthy’s fatal mistake?

I can think of two: Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. But seriously, how do you figure that’s resolved?

Remember too that we’re little more than a month from a replay of the shutdown countdown and at some point a vote to impeach President Biden. So new moments to break a Speakership are thick on the horizon.

We now have two official candidates to succeed Kevin McCarthy: Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan. It seems unlikely we’ll get another candidate, at least another with a real shot at winning.

Despite the fact that Jordan is from the Freedom Caucus and Scalise was in effect McCarthy’s deputy, Jordan is a McCarthy ally. From the outside, we tend to see the House in ideological or partisan terms. But there are factions and alliances that transcend those divisions. Indeed a leader’s faction almost by definition has to span the ideological breadth of the caucus. That’s the only way to win a leadership election. In many ways, this succession fight is between Team Scalise and Team McCarthy, with Jordan being the nominee of Team McCarthy.

TPM Reader PT says Dems should have propped McCarthy up. On balance, I don’t agree. But he makes a good argument.

I realize this is contrary to conventional wisdom, and your own analysis of the situation, but if I had been running the House Democratic Caucus I would have provided Kevin McCarthy with votes to keep the Speakership. My thinking is the following: