Something funny is happening. A bit out of the blue the country’s big media organizations have started noting something peculiar. Ex-President Trump’s rhetoric has grown increasingly violent over the course of 2023 with an escalating round of threats against his perceived political enemies. Those messages go out loud and clear to his supporters. But they’re either muted or ignored by much of the mainstream press which has focused on discussions about President Biden’s age, Kamala Harris’s experience and popularity and the like. This isn’t a new observation. We’ve noted this dynamic repeatedly, as recently as a couple weeks ago. But suddenly the bigs themselves are noting it.

One thing that is becoming clear from the tip sheets is that at least some GOP conference members are waking up and smelling the coffee on Jim Jordan’s record from that college wrestler molestation scandal.

To refresh your memory: Before Jordan got into politics he was an assistant wrestling coach (1987-1995) at Ohio State. He claims he didn’t know the team doctor was sexually molesting team members. But apparently it was an open secret and a number of team members from the time claim Jordan knew. They go on TV and say it.

You probably haven’t heard of “Podiumgate.” I’ve been kicking myself for the last week or so because there’s been so much going on and this story is so convoluted that I haven’t made time to write about it. But it’s the kind of story I’ve always loved. And it’s a big story, even if, for the moment, it’s almost entirely contained within Arkansas. So in this post I’m going to try to give you the outline, to catch you up so we can keep tabs on it going forward. It’s so convoluted that I may get some points wrong or at least get some points of emphasis wrong. But bear with me because you’ll be glad you did.

It all starts back in June when Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas takes a trade delegation to Paris, France to drum up business for Arkansas. She was visiting an aerospace trade show and aerospace and defense actually make up a significant amount of the state’s exports. (And yes, I’m withholding some details about what went down in Paris to build up dramatic tension. You have to keep reading.)

Everyone was rightly shocked at how rapidly events unfolded yesterday. We’re now getting the first signs that the degree of fracture and the centrifugal forces unleashed by McCarthy’s ouster may be more chaotic and protracted in their impact than most first imagined.

Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman said this afternoon that no one in the GOP caucus thinks a new Speaker will actually be elected by next Wednesday, when the election has at least tentatively been scheduled. A look at the news suggests why. At least one House Republican has announced that he will not support any candidate who doesn’t require that the 1 vote motion to vacate rule be changed. Many more are demanding a change without yet making it a categorical demand, though seems like just a matter of time. Marjorie Greene says she will not support any Speaker who supports more Ukraine aid. Meanwhile it’s almost impossible to imagine that Matt Gaetz and his crew would give up this power over any future Speaker. Why would they? The current crisis can’t be ended without their votes.

Do Matt Gaetz and his confederates agree to give up their 1 vote motion to vacate rule for the new Speaker? Hard to imagine. Why would they? On the other hand, what potential Speaker would possibley consent to enter the office on the basis of Kevin McCarthy’s fatal mistake?

I can think of two: Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. But seriously, how do you figure that’s resolved?

Remember too that we’re little more than a month from a replay of the shutdown countdown and at some point a vote to impeach President Biden. So new moments to break a Speakership are thick on the horizon.

We now have two official candidates to succeed Kevin McCarthy: Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan. It seems unlikely we’ll get another candidate, at least another with a real shot at winning.

Despite the fact that Jordan is from the Freedom Caucus and Scalise was in effect McCarthy’s deputy, Jordan is a McCarthy ally. From the outside, we tend to see the House in ideological or partisan terms. But there are factions and alliances that transcend those divisions. Indeed a leader’s faction almost by definition has to span the ideological breadth of the caucus. That’s the only way to win a leadership election. In many ways, this succession fight is between Team Scalise and Team McCarthy, with Jordan being the nominee of Team McCarthy.

TPM Reader PT says Dems should have propped McCarthy up. On balance, I don’t agree. But he makes a good argument.

I realize this is contrary to conventional wisdom, and your own analysis of the situation, but if I had been running the House Democratic Caucus I would have provided Kevin McCarthy with votes to keep the Speakership. My thinking is the following:

First: The fact that Kevin McCarthy was ousted with the motion to vacate was not a huge surprise. The huge surprise was that within less than two hours of the vote he threw in the towel and effectively ended not only his Speakership but his political career. It’s still not clear to me whether he had key conversations during that short interlude that told him it was hopeless or that, at a basic level, he simply didn’t have the fight in him. By all accounts it was a total stunner for basically everyone in the Tuesday evening conference meeting.

Here is the chain of events as I understand them. Yesterday Matt Gaetz filed his motion to vacate. Last night then-Speaker McCarthy challenged Gaetz on Twitter to “bring it on.” Today McCarthy decided to hold the vote at the first opportunity rather than wait. It quickly became apparent McCarthy would lose the vote. He did lose the vote. Then a few hours later he told his caucus that he wouldn’t be running to get the job back. He was out for good.

His colleagues were apparently stunned by the announcement. His allies were prepping for a grueling fight to regain the Speakership. The length of time between McCarthy’s ouster and his announcement was roughly two hours. That’s enough time to have a few conversations and get the impression it’s too high a hill. But just barely. It’s hard to look at these facts and not conclude that McCarthy simply didn’t have the fight in him.

I find this both fascinating and comical. The first big collateral damage of McCarthy’s fall may be the bipartisan “problem solvers caucus”. This is the group organized by the No Labels folks. But it’s basically a centrist group with members from both parties. Axios reports that the Republicans are livid with their Democratic colleagues for letting Kevin McCarthy go down the tubes.