1:30 PM: At the risk of stating the obvious, this is going worse for McCarthy than the GOP leadership thought it would even at the start of the vote. We’re currently at 17 Republicans voting against McCarthy. Hard to figure it doesn’t get to at least 20 votes.

1:22 PM: One of the core dynamics here is that McCarthy’s strategy was to give the radicals anything and everything. Because that was the case, he had nothing really left to give. That’s not the only dynamic here, but it’s an important part of this. He enabled them. They want to make trouble. And the only trouble left to make was to destroy McCarthy himself.

1:07 PM: McCarthy now losing 7 votes, and given that we’re only at F and you’ve got a number of holdouts to go that must get to at least 10, probably a few more.

12:58 PM: No surprise but with four non-McCarthy votes and a number of the top crazies still to be called, McCarthy certainly loses this first vote. Again, expected going in.

12:52 PM: Some vibrant imagery there in the nominating speeches. The arch-toady Elise Stefanik nominates McCarthy amidst a grim mood. Democrats are giddy and boisterous in nominating Hakeem Jeffries despite losing the House.

On the big vote, my best guess is that through some set of machinations Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker today — likely a mix of abstentions and votes secured through desperate promises. I say that for only two reasons, both flimsy and thin. One is what I’d call metaphorical body language from the top Freedom Caucus arsonists. They say they’re unmovable and yet they’re still sitting at the table holding their cards like they are. The second is that political parties usually find ways to make things work at pivotal moments — the half time entertainer at the Super Bowl never forgets their lyrics. As I said, these are both pretty thin reasons. But they’re why that is my assumption going in.

It’s all coming down to the final showdown in Kevin McCarthy’s seven-year effort to recover the job he thought was his in 2015. We discussed some of these issues yesterday. Given the difficulty of coming up with any plausible explanation of how McCarthy can get 218 votes, you’re now going to hear lots of fantastical proposals about how McCarthy’s failure to get 218 votes might set the stage for a “bipartisan” speakership vote in which some number of Democrats cross the aisle to vote for McCarthy or some “moderate” alternative.

This is not going to happen. For many of you that’s probably obvious. But I thought it might be worth running through the insurmountable obstacles in the way of such an outcome.

A big question we turn to now is who will be the next Speaker of the House. This should not be a question. The leader of the Republican opposition for the last four years should obviously become speaker. But, as we know, it’s not that simple.

Tonight we heard for the first time that McCarthy has agreed to allow motions to vacate as part of his quest to get the votes to become speaker. This is a technical parliamentary tool but an extremely important one. It allows any member at any time to force a vote on firing McCarthy as speaker. There are various potential versions of this and it has to do with what is called a “privileged motion.” The latest reports suggest McCarthy has finally agreed to this, something he has insisted he would never agree to.

There are so many lies and so many questions swirling around George Santos that I wanted to take a moment before the end of the day to draw a few connections for you between the pieces we reported today and some other, earlier work by our team and others. As noted, the big question is where on earth all this money came from, if it exists at all.

Santos says he made this crazy amount of money by putting together extremely wealthy people who want to buy and sell things to each other. A private jet. A yacht. He says he got the rolodex to do this from his time at Linkbridge Investors. We’re still looking into Linkbridge. It’s a company that says it puts on closed-door conferences for top investors to network. We’re still trying to learn more about it.

But it’s what he did immediately after Linkbridge that has our attention. He went to work for a place called Harbor City which was pretty quickly flagged by the SEC, which alleged it was a ponzi scheme. A lot of the money from Harbor City is still unaccounted for. And there are multiple links between the Devolder Organization, the outfit that made Santos as much as $11 million over 18 months, and former executives at Harbor City.

The far-right domestic terrorist leader who was the lead organizer of the plot to kidnap and assassinate Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has been sentenced to just under 20 years in prison for his role in the plot. Barry Croft, of Delaware, who said he wanted to foment a civil war in the US was, according to the government, the “spiritual leader” of the group, much “some sheikh in ISIS might be.”

On Monday George Santos gave an interview to the New York news outlet City and State. It’s a softball interview in which Santos continues to blame “elites” at The New York Times for making him lie about his resume. He basically minimizes all his lies to nothing. He was someone who “put a little bit of fluff in their resume” and dared any member of Congress to go through the scrutiny he has and come out any better. As you can see, its just a speedball of deflection and lying. But he’s a pathological liar who won’t stop lying. That’s kind of old news. As I noted yesterday, the real story is the list of potential criminal issues which may and I’m increasing thinking will bring him down. The big one is the money. Where did he get the money? Since he won’t shut up, we’re getting more information from him, all of it preposterous. Let’s run through where things stand.

WaPo has a solid rundown of the state of the Santos story after last night’s interview in The New York Post and another live interview Santos did last night. I want to give you a quick assessment of where this story likely goes next, what matters and what does not. On the endless list of fabrications in Santos’s resume and biography, his response has essentially been “LOL, whatever.” Yeah, I lied. Sorry. But who cares?

Narrowly speaking, he’s right. There’s no law that says you have to be honest with voters about your background or almost anything else. There’s no federal recall. The recourse to this behavior is either at the ballot box in two years or in the hands of his colleagues in the House who could expel him from the body. But expulsion is extremely rare. Only five members of the House have ever been expelled and three of those were tied to secession in 1861. In essence, it’s happened twice in U.S. history. It’s slightly more common for the House to refuse to seat a new member.

Absent getting shamed out of office for being an inveterate liar and weasel, the issue will come down to potential criminal conduct. So let’s run down the most likely points of vulnerability on that front.

[Ed. Note: A couple hours after initial publication The New York Post put up a substantially expanded version of this interview article, along with a more skeptical and charged slant. That subsequent version included questions I said were left out in this post. -jm]

Embattled weasel George Santos has given what amounts to a softball/clean bill of health interview to The New York Post. It wouldn’t be right to say the piece ignores the scandals surrounding Santos. They basically ask and give him the opportunity to admit he lied about various stuff. But the editors do as much as they can to soften the edges of Santos’s comically gagged tale.

He says he “never worked directly” for Goldman or Citi. Claiming he did was a “poor choice of words.” He says a company he worked for did business with Goldman and Citi. On graduating from Baruch College he admits he never graduated from any college. “I didn’t graduate from any institution of higher learning. I’m embarrassed and sorry for having embellished my resume. I own up to that … We do stupid things in life.”

It’s almost a cliche at this point: The story of a once vibrant and proud mid-sized city paper, now hollowed out to almost nothing by distant corporate owners slashing jobs amidst the decline of local news. This morning I saw this version of the story published by The Boston Globe about The Providence Journal. In this case I feel a bit more connected to the story. The ProJo bills itself as the oldest continuously published daily in the United States — and, more to the point for me, I lived in Providence for six years as a graduate student in 1990s. So I feel some sense of connection and identification with it.

It’s a sad, familiar and in many ways embarrassing story. The ProJo once had a dozen bureaus throughout the tiny state of Rhode Island and its own bureau in D.C. Now it’s down to just a dozen reporters total. The Globe itself, seeing the opening, is staffing up its Rhode Island presence and in so doing likely hastening the ProJo’s steep decline which has brought circulation to just under 30,000, print and digital — barely a tenth of its one-time circulation.