You can look at the averages and — unfortunately — they keep ticking down for Democrats as we careen toward the big day on November 8th. Of course, the election is already in full swing in numerous early voting states. To keep up on early voting trends I always recommend following Michael McDonald who is the source on this topic. You can follow his feed here on Twitter. (He’s not the Doobie Brothers keyboardist, but still first rate.)

We’re really getting down to the wire on the midterms and in ways that aren’t necessarily inspiring if you’re a Democrat. The conventional wisdom now has it that after a summer of Dobbs backlash that buoyed Democrats, inflation and the economy have now reclaimed center stage putting Republicans back in the ascendent. Is this true? Is there evidence to support this?

There’s definitely some.

Russia’s military situation in Ukraine has become so dire in recent weeks that, as you know, there’s been increasing discussion of whether President Putin might resort to the use of nuclear weapons to stabilize it or overawe Ukraine’s western allies into discontinuing aid. We think, rightly, about how terrifying this prospect is. But we shouldn’t forget that it is also a gauge of just how bad Russia is doing in conventional terms. But Putin may get relief if he’s able to hold on until January when a Republican House would block any more military aid to Ukraine.

That is what Kevin McCarthy is now signaling.

We’ve already written a lot in recent months about the near certainty that a Republican House will threaten a national debt default next year to force Joe Biden to essentially undo the legislative agenda he passed in his first two years in office. I didn’t realize that they are apparently focused on major cuts to Social Security and Medicare, or as they are calling it “structural changes” to the two programs. I take this from this morning’s PunchBowl newsletter.

Punchbowl cites this BGov piece and apparently their own reporting. But I’m reminded that our Kate Riga was on this aspect of the story on Friday, indeed citing the same BGov piece.

The Miami Herald has another richly reported article on the migrant bamboozling operation Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida ran in San Antonio, Texas — the one that left 50 Venezuelan migrants in Martha’s Vineyard and spawned an on-going criminal investigation in Bexar County, Texas. The article is paywalled. So if you’re a subscriber give it a read. If not I want to summarize a few key new pieces of information, drawn mainly from public documents the DeSantis administration has been compelled to divulged under Florida’s sunshine law as well as on-the-ground reporting from the Herald.

This is just a tiny morsel of data. So it may simply be noise. But it caught my eye. Recent polls in two key senate races show big spreads between registered and likely voters. Traditionally likely voter screens tend to favor Republicans, who are more regular voters. In recent years though that has been less consistent. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted 9/26 to 10/2 in Nevada gave Catherine Cortez Masto a +3 advantage among registered voters and -2 among likely voters. A Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin conducted from 10/3-10/9 showed an even race among registered voters and Ron Johnson up 6 points over Mandela Barnes among likely voters.

New documents released under Florida’s sunshine law have revealed more details of the Perla-DeSantis hoodwink operation in San Antonio. DeSantis Public Safety Czar Larry Keefe, the former lawyer for the contractor Florida has already paid $1.5 million for the Vineyard migrant flight, was closely involved in the operation. He directed the “Perla” crew’s operation from Florida. Critically, Keefe made at least one trip to San Antonio to oversee the operation.

From TPM Reader AG …

I very much agree with your strategic focus on abortion in the upcoming elections, and while I certainly don’t see it as an either/or choice, I find myself alternately baffled and furious that national Democrats haven’t made this a centerpiece of their fall campaigns.

I’ve been reading various commentary in recent weeks about the rightward turn by big elements of the Silicon Valley tech community. It’s a complex story with various roots. But at a macro level a significant part of it comes down to something like political physics. Tech became extremely wealthy and extremely powerful, and when government started looking at Big Tech with a more critical eye a lot of the tech people … well, they didn’t like it. That’s not terribly surprising. When you’re used to being a master of the universe and then suddenly a bureaucrat who makes less than $200,000 a year comes asking questions or says you can’t do something, that can seem a little weird and annoying. And your political outlook, if you had one, can start to change. This reminded me of a decade-old episode in the history of American political economy which I watched unfold at the time and is relevant to this discussion.

Do you remember SOPA and the activism against it?