I’ve written a few times that my greatest fear of a Sanders general election campaign is that it would be one half against Donald Trump and one half against the Democratic party itself. The results last night help us understand some of these liabilities and dynamics. Insurgent candidacies and movements have certain enduring, inherent qualities. The simplest is the belief that there’s something wrong, outdated or corrupt about the organizational leadership you’re trying to overthrow. That’s obvious. Otherwise, why are you an insurgent?

Sanders is a twofold political figure. He’s been a federal legislator for a quarter century operating within the conventional political system. He’s also been a left activist for almost 60 years. That oppositionist mentality is deep in his political DNA and that of his campaign. It’s one of its core strengths. It’s magnified among his most vocal supporters.

Pausing on reader emails from Seattle for this dispatch from TPM Reader BP in Nashville:

Just wanted to give a heads up on how things are going here in Nashville after last night’s tornado. My home is two miles from the path, so the only issue I have is no power. Besides all the damage and deaths that have been reported, several voting precincts were either damaged, without power, or not reachable. My precinct had no power.

We’re in sprint mode as the few remaining 2020 candidates vie for wins in the 14 states holding primary elections today.

But even after this weekend’s en-masse exodus of top candidates who under-performed in South Carolina on Saturday, Trump seems to be primarily concerned about the rise of the former vice president.

The state of California wants you to know that if it’s taking a while to count its residents’ votes on Super Tuesday, it’s not because it’s heading into a Iowa-esque debacle.

I had a whole long post written about this. I can summarize it as follows. Buttigieg dropping out, along with a slew of other developments over the last week, sets us up for a hugely unpredictable set of results on Tuesday. Buttigieg only had about 10% support nationally. Some polls showed his voters spreading surprisingly evenly to the other candidates as their second choice — belying any simple calculus that his voters automatically migrate to Biden. Commentators are having debates about different candidates’ “lanes” such.

But those analyses miss this greater uncertainty.

From TPM Reader RB …

I just have to say that in regard to your first two comments today Mar. 1 on a possible Bernie-Biden race, both your readers NL and JE are far too pessimistic, looking only for the worst possible outcomes.

From reluctant Sanders supporter JE …

I agree with your point about needing to get some clarify before the convention but I think we miss one important thing if the race narrows to Biden/Sanders quickly.

From TPM Reader NL …

I am conflicted about this matchup. Let me get this off my chest first. I do not like Sanders. It has zero to do with policy, age, or electability. It is entirely about his unwillingness to be a team player and my fear that he will be a governing disaster because he will make the perfect the enemy of the good. This manifests in a lot of ways — unwillingness to join the party, unwillingness to call out his more toxic backers (assuming they are not FSB bots), unwillingness to make the case to his core supporters that change requires 50.1% percentage of the vote and get there requires, well, Democrats. What is the problem with making the case the Democratic party needs new blood and that the best way to change the party is by joining it?

Most about this night speaks for itself. I suspect the margin of this win will get Biden into contention in enough Super Tuesday states to gravitate this relatively quickly into a two person race. I doubt Michael Bloomberg will stay in the race long if thinks his impact is only to pull potential support from Biden, or if he sees no path for himself to the nomination. Steyer is dropping out tonight. I suspect others will follow next week.