Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has pulled ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by two points in Illinois, according to a CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday.
The poll showed support for Sanders at 48 percent in the state, while Clinton stood at 46 percent.
This is the first CBS/YouGov poll conducted in the state, and the first to show the socialist insurgent overtaking the Democratic frontrunner there. But it is consistent with recent polling, which has shown the race tightening in Illinois following Sanders’ upset victory in Michigan. Most polls show Clinton remaining ahead, however. She clocks double-digit leads in Florida.
TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Clinton up by a hair in the state, at 47.7 percent to Sanders’ 47 percent.
The CBS/YouGov poll was carried out from March 9-11 by internet survey. Pollsters surveyed 722 people likely to vote in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.
I think one of the problems with polls today, as well noted elsewhere, is the difficulty of said pollsters coming to grips with the non-response rate of those w/o land lines and those on the Federal Do Not Call list like me. Here, in the largest collar county (DuPage) close to Chicago, on Monday the day before the Illinois primary, I’ve received zero calls on my cell.
Now, that’s the way I want it, and yes, pollsters say they have adjusted for this issue yet I still wonder how skewed said polls are.
Do you need to be so obvious on who are pulling for TPM?
On 3-6 she was up by almost 40, and now he’s ahead? Did she shoot someone over the weekend? Am I the only one that finds those two polls a little bit suspect? It makes great headlines though!
I suspect that a lot of this is more “re-calibration” of the likely voter model rather than a massive shift in voter sentiment here. This poll is still an outlier, though we shall see if it’s accurate shortly.
Different polls and everyone scrambling to figure out if the Michigan results are a signal that their likely voter screens/expected voter population might be wrong. I’d presume that the CBS/Yougov poll is assuming that Illinois is going to look like Michigan, so they’ve tweaked their LV screen/makeup to match. It’s an interesting question whether Michigan is an outlier or is actually a decent model for the upper midwest, and we’ll get to see shortly.
Trump winning: OH, FL, Il, MS, MI, NC, KS, KY, LA
Trump losing:
THIS is the only poll we need to focus on.
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THIS is what we need to do period.