New Swing States Poll: Clinton Leads Trump In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during the "Hillary Victory Fund: I'm with Her" benefit concert, Wednesday, March 2, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
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Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in head-to-head matchups in the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released Tuesday afternoon.

In Florida, Clinton leads Trump by just one point, 46-45. But when third-party candidates are added to the question, Clinton and Trump are tied 43-43, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3.

In Ohio, Clinton leads Trump by four points, 49-45. When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by just two points, 44-42, with Johnson at 8 and Stein at 3.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump by 10 points, 52-42. When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by nine points, 48-39, with Johnson at 7 and Stein at 3.

Quinnipiac University conducted the polls July 30-Aug. 7 via phone. The university surveyed 1,056 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; 812 likely Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points; and 815 likely Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

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  1. FOX: Trump is not worried as The Second Amendment, along with The Putin are looking after him. WikiLeaks will assist as well.

  2. This seems closer in FL than recent national and state polls suggest. For example, if the recent Georgia polls are correct that Hillary is from a few points down to 7 points ahead, she should be more than a point ahead in FL where there is a much larger % of Latina votes than in Georgia.

    I see that fivethirtyeight rates Quinnipiac polls highly, but also with a slight GOP bias of .7%

  3. Doesn’t Quinnipiac tend to lean Republican?

  4. It’s safe to assume Trump is now running worse than these numbers show. The sampling period for these polls started on day one of Trump’s five-day freakout over Khizr Khan, so they don’t capture the full impact.

    ETA: It’s safe to assume Trump will be running even worse in the days ahead as people absorb his call for Second Amendment remedies.

  5. Nate Silver has adjusted the Florida poll, has Clinton up by 3%. I think it is more like 5%.

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