New Battleground Polls: Clinton’s Lead Shrinks Or Disappears In 4 Swing States

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a town hall at the Toledo Civic Center in Toledo, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 18, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

In another sign the presidential race has tightened, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has shrunk in three swing states, and Trump has overtaken her in Ohio, according to the latest Quinnipiac polls.

Trump now leads in Ohio, 46-45, a five-point swing from Quinnipiac’s early August poll when Clinton led by four points.

With third party candidates included in the new poll, Trump has a wider lead in the Buckeye state, 41-37, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 14 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 4 percent.

Trump has also gained ground in Florida, where he currently ties with Clinton at 47 percent. The race is also tied when including third-party candidates, with Trump and Clinton at 43 percent each, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent. Quinnipiac‘s most recent previous poll of Florida showed a one-point advantage for Clinton, 46-45, in the head-to-head race.

Clinton still leads in North Carolina and Pennsylvania by four (47-43) and five points (48-43) respectively. However, her lead has diminished since Quinnipiac last polled Pennsylvania in early August, where she led by 10 points, 52-42.

Clinton still maintains a lead in North Carolina and Pennsylvania when third-party candidates are introduced. In North Carolina, she leads 42-38, with Johnson at 15 percent, and in Pennsylvania Clinton leads Trump 44-39, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. Quinnipiac has not previously polled North Carolina on the general election.

The Quinnipiac swing state polls were conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 7 via live telephone interview. The Florida poll included 761 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent. The North Carolina poll included 751 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent. The Ohio poll included 775 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. The Pennsylvania poll included 778 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for Florida shows Clinton leading Trump, 46.6 to 45.8.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for North Carolina shows Clinton leading Trump, 45.2 to 43.5.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for Ohio shows Trump leading Clinton, 45.9 to 43.8.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Trump, 45.7 to 41.5.

Latest Polltracker
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: