CNN/ORC: Clinton And Trump Swap Leads In Two Key Swing States


Donald Trump has taken the lead Nevada and holds onto his lead in Arizona, while Hillary Clinton has taken the lead in Florida and holds onto her lead in Pennsylvania, according to four swing state polls from CNN/ORC.

Trump now leads in Nevada, 51-45. When third party candidates are included, Trump leads, 49-43, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 5 percent.

The Republican businessman still holds the lead in Arizona, 51-46. With third-party candidates included, he leads by five points, 49-44, with Johnson at 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1 percent.

Clinton maintains a slight advantage in Florida, where she leads by a single point, 50-49, in a head-to-head match. Her lead expands slightly in a four-way match, 49-47, with Johnson at 3 percent and Stein at 1 percent.

Her lead is greatest in Pennsylvania, where she comes out five points ahead, 51-46, in a head-to-head match. With third-party candidates, she leads 48-44, with Johnson at 4 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

Nevada flipped from leaning toward Clinton to favoring Trump in CNN/ORC’s polls. The head-to-head match among likely Nevada voters has moved from Clinton +4 in mid-October to Trump +6 today, and the third-party race has moved from Clinton +2 to Trump +6.

In contrast, Florida likely voters moved from favoring Trump to preferring Clinton in CNN/ORC’s polls. In the head-to-head match, the poll moved from Trump +4 in September to Clinton +1 today, while the four-way poll moved from Trump +3 in September to Clinton +2 today.

In Arizona, the head-to-head match has remained at Trump +5 from CNN/ORC’s previous poll in August to today, while the four-way match has decreased for the businessman from Trump +7 in August to Trump +5 today.

Pennsylvania likely voters have maintained a preference for Clinton, moving from Clinton +3 in the CNN/ORC September poll to Clinton +5 today in a head-to-head match, and Clinton +1 in September to Clinton +4 today when third-party candidates are included.

The CNN/ORC poll was conducted Oct. 27-Nov. 1 via live telephone interview, and all four state polls have margins of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent among likely voters. The survey included 769 likely Arizona voters, 773 likely Florida voters, 790 likely Nevada voters and 799 likely Pennsylvania voters.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Arizona shows Trump leading Clinton, 47 to 43.5.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Florida shows a tossup, with Trump leading Clinton, 47.4 to 47.2.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Nevada shows Trump leading Clinton, 47.5 to 43.7.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the presidential election in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Trump, 47.6 to 42.7.

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