Hillary Clinton holds a seven-point lead nationally among likely voters, according to a new poll from NBC News/Wall Street Journal.
Clinton leads the head-to-head race against Donald Trump, 48-41. With third party candidates included, Clinton leads by six points, 43-37, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polling at 10 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent.
The previous NBC/WSJ survey conducted early last month polled only registered voters, not likely voters. In that poll, Clinton led by a slightly larger nine-point margin, 47-38. She had a nine-point lead with third party candidates added, 43-34, with Johnson at 10 percent and Stein at 5 percent.
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 16-19 among 922 likely voters nationally, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.23 percent.
TPM’s PollTracker Average for the general election shows Clinton leading Trump, 46 to 42.3.
It’s clear that only quality phone polls like this one show the actual state of the race. As with fivethirtyeight.com, internet polls are only decent for determining trend as opposed to absolute spread. simply put, larger internet poll sample sizes do not overcome the sampling bias excluding categories of likely voters more predisposed in general to Clinton than Trump. Even if they weight based on demographics.
Polls are driving me nuts. Trump’s up. Clinton’s up. I should probably stop paying attention to polls.
Nice trend lines,lets keep 'em going…
I tell myself that every day! And every day I check the polls …
Republicans who rushed to embrace Trump’s toxic campaign during what appears to have been a transient surge will now have to wear that albatross around their necks.