Clinton Comes Out Ahead In Three Swing States, While Trump Ahead In Ohio

Hillary Clinton sits comfortably ahead of Donald Trump in Quinnipiac University polls of Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania, but falls slightly behind the businessman in Ohio.

The four swing state polls were conducted in the days following the second presidential debate and growing evidence of Trump’s misogynistic conduct.

Clinton holds the widest lead in Colorado, where she is ahead by 11 points, 51-40, in a head-to-head-match. When third-party candidates are included, her lead falls to eight points, 45-37, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 10 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 percent.

The poll results are tightest in Ohio, where Trump leads the head-to-head match by just one point, 48-47. The major-party candidates are tied at 45 percent in the four-way race, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 1 percent.

In the new Pennsylvania poll, Clinton leads, 51-45, among likely voters in a head-to-head match. She maintains her six-point lead in Pennsylvania with third-party candidates included, 47-41, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 1 percent.

Clinton holds a similar lead among Florida voters, polling four points ahead in both the head-to-head match, 49-45, and the four-way race, 48-44, with Johnson at 4 percent and Stein at 1 percent.

The new poll marks a significant improvement for Clinton among Colorado voters since Quinnipiac’s September poll of the state. She went from tied with Trump to +11 in the two-way race, and from +2 in September to +8 now in the four-way race.

The former Secretary of State also edged closer to Trump in Ohio since Quinnipiac’s late September poll of the Buckeye State. The businessman led + 3 and now leads +1 in the two-way, and Trump went from a +5 lead to a tie with Clinton in a four-way race.

Quinnipiac’s most recent Florida and Pennsylvania polls from late September show results similar to the latest poll. In Florida, the race moved from Clinton +5 in late September to Clinton +4 now in both the head-to-head match and with third-party candidates.

In Pennsylvania, the race moved from Clinton +5 in late September to Clinton +6 now in the head-to-head match, and from Clinton +4 last month to Clinton +6 now with third-party candidates.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted via live telephone interviews from Oct. 10-16. The survey included 685 likely Colorado voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent; 660 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent; 624 likely Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent; and 660 likely Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the general election in Colorado shows Clinton leading Trump, 47.7 to 39.2.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the general election in Florida shows Clinton leading Trump, 48.8 to 44.6.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the general election in Ohio shows a tossup, with Clinton leading Trump, 47.3 to 45.9.

TPM’s PollTracker Average for the general election in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Trump, 50.7 to 42.1.