Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) took a nine point lead over rival Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Sunday.
Sanders received support from 41 percent of Democratic voters, Clinton got 32 percent and Vice President Joe Biden 16 percent, according to the survey.
The NBC/Marist poll also showed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a 16-point lead in New Hampshire.
Among GOP candidates in New Hampshire, Trump is at 28 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 12 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 11 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8 percent.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to Sept. 2 among 966 registered voters (+/- 3.2%), 413 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 4.8) and 356 potential Democratic primary voters (+/- 5.2).
The poll was conducted from August 26 to Sept. 2 among 966 registered voters (+/- 3.2%), 413 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 4.8) and 356 potential Democratic primary voters (+/- 5.2).
413+356=769 What happened to the other 197 polled? I must be missing something.
Including Biden in the poll when he’s not running pretty much makes this poll useless. For those who support Biden, who would they support if he doesn’t run? Would they all support Sanders 58% vs. 32% for Clinton? Would they all support Clinton for 48% vs. 41%?
In any event, as the party’s anointed one Clinton should be doing a lot better.
They actually did ask the question both ways, it just wasn’t reported in this article here at TPM. This is from MSNBC:
“Without Biden in the race, Sanders’ lead over Clinton in the current survey increases to 11 points, 49% to 38%.”
Here’s a more detailed report of the Marist Poll’s findings, and at the bottom of the article are links to the complete tables for both Iowa and New Hampshire.
In Iowa, with Joe Biden in the race, the numbers are Hillary 38, Bernie 27, Joe 20, an 11 point lead for Hillary over Bernie.
Without Biden in the race, it’s Hillary 48, Bernie 37, same 11 point lead.
In this Iowa poll, Joe’s 20 points appears to split equally between Bernie and Hillary in his absence. None of the low-single-digits candidates’ numbers change with Joe in or out, and neither do the undecideds, which remain at 8%.
So if Hillary’s supporters are hoping that without Joe Biden in the race, she’d be ahead (or at least be less far behind) in New Hampshire, or that she would have a larger lead in Iowa, this poll would appear to throw cold water on these hopes. On the (relatively) bright side for Hillary supporters, it doesn’t appear that Joe Biden entering the race would hurt her more than Bernie, which some had speculated would be the case given that they are both mainstream, establishment candidates with very similar policy views.
You guys need to read the article at the following link, it offers a whole lot of insight as to why Bernie Sanders polling well in NH does not really mean all that much right now. It offers some unique insight.
Last two paragraphs pasted from the article:
There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasn’t won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators haven’t changed over the past month.
But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.