Is the Russian offensive grinding to a halt? Or is this a calm before the storm?
That’s the question before us today, as Russian advances on Ukrainian territory have slowed dramatically over the past week.
To some, that’s of a piece with potential softening in Russian rhetoric around the war. The Kremlin’s spokesman didn’t mention the “denazification” of Ukraine as part of Russia’s war goals during a briefing this week, and Vladimir Putin himself said on Friday that he saw some “positive shifts” in Ukraine’s position. President Zelensky told ABC this week that he had “cooled off” on Ukraine joining NATO, a key Russian talking point.
Alternatively, everything may be about to get far, far worse.
Satellite imaging company Maxar released photos on Thursday suggesting that Russia had repositioned its infamously stalled convoy to launch artillery strikes on and storm Kyiv. The Kremlin launched missiles at far western Ukraine, while the White House warned that Russia may be about to deploy a chemical weapons attack. And while negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue, it’s not clear that the Kremlin’s core goals have really changed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed at talks in Turkey on Thursday that Russia “did not attack Ukraine.”
In either scenario, it seems that this stage of the conflict may be at an inflection point: is this a point from which we’ll see a big comedown? Or a prelude to something far, far worse?
Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC), one of the 10 House Republicans who impeached ex-President Donald Trump for inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, put out a scathing statement on Saturday after the former president bashed him during a South Carolina rally for Rice’s primary challenger.
Continue reading “Pro-Impeachment GOP Rep. Tom Rice Fires Back At ‘Would-Be Tyrant’ Trump” →
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.
Congrats, Tucker
Mother Jones obtained a memo from the Russian government to the country’s media outlets urging them to use clips of Fox News host Tucker Carlson peddling a Russia-friendly narrative about the Ukraine invasion on his show.
- Russian media has obliged. Here’s one example:
- Carlson’s been pretty pissed at fellow Fox News colleague Jennifer Griffin for debunking Russia’s disinformation on biolabs in Ukraine, by the way.
Pompeo Still Getting Extra Security
The State Department reported to Congress in February that the department was spending more than $2 million a month to provide 24-hour security to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and ex-Iran envoy Brian Hook because they face “serious and credible” threats from Iran.
- $13.1 million was spent in total between August last year and last month, the report stated. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been repeatedly extending Pompeo’s security every 60 days after the first 180 days of security the former Trump official automatically got after leaving office expired.
- Iran hasn’t forgotten that Pompeo and Hook headed the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against it, and so the alleged threats against the two former officials have continued even as the Biden administration works to re-enter the nuclear agreement Trump pulled out of, according to the department’s report.
- Now the State Department and the Director of National Intelligence have to decide by Wednesday if they want to keep extending that security to the ex-Trump officials.
Florida Fails To Pass Safety Laws To Prevent Another Condo Disaster
Lawmakers in Florida’s GOP-controlled Senate and House couldn’t reach an agreement on Friday over reforming the state’s condo laws to prevent another massive collapse like the one in Surfside, Florida that killed 98 people last year.
Russia Turning To China For Help In Ukraine, US Says
- Financial Times: “US officials say Russia has asked China for military help in Ukraine”
- The Washington Post: “China calls U.S. allegation that Russia asked Beijing for military equipment ‘fake news’”
- The Guardian: “US will try to convince China not to supply arms to Russia at key Rome meeting”
- New York Times: “China Sees at Least One Winner Emerging From Ukraine War: China”
Jan. 6 Panel’s Report To Lean Heavily On Video
When the House Jan. 6 Committee finally puts out its public report on the Capitol attack sometime this year, expect it to be more digestible than Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Bible-length text of 448 pages on his Russia election interference probe, CBS News reports: The committee is reportedly expected to present much of the evidence in video and multimedia formats.
- The idea is to make the panel’s findings easier to broadcast on TV and spread on social media, according to CBS News. The committee also reportedly wants to show evidence that’ll jolt people who feel like they already understand what happened on Jan. 6.
- The committee was reportedly inspired by the House impeachment managers–one of whom included current Jan. 6 panel member Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD)–presenting a jarring 13-minute video of the Capitol attack during Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial.
Must Read
“The painful, cutting and brilliant letters Black people wrote to their former enslavers” – The Washington Post
Remembering Trump’s Corrupt Ukraine Pressure Scheme
As Trump’s allies and conservative media try to blame Biden for Russia’s attack on Ukraine, CNN analyst Asha Rangappa points out investigators’ findings in Trump’s first impeachment that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was worried about Trump emboldening Russia by withholding aid to Ukraine:
The Right-Wing Media Cesspit
BREAKING: Fox News host Maria Bartiromo reports that “some people” have told her that they “feel that” Biden is not only too soft on Putin but even sees him as a partner! Imagine the President of the United States cozying up to the the Russian leader like that!
Obama Gets COVID
Former President Barack Obama tweeted on Sunday that he’d tested positive for the virus, but is “feeling fine” besides having a scratchy throat for the past several days.
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RUSSIAN NEGOTIATORS TODAY SAID that they’re making progress in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine and expect to sign a document in the next few days. On its face, that’s not very credible given what we see unfolding in the country. Even more so because it is hard to imagine what terms both sides would currently agree to for a ceasefire or end of the conflict. What complicates the picture though is that one of President Zelensky’s top advisors, Mykhailo Podolyak, who is involved in the negotiations posted a short video today saying something broadly similar. Podolyak said Russian negotiators are no longer making ultimatums and are “looking far more properly” at the situation on the ground. He says he thinks “concrete results” are possible in the next few days.
Again, who knows what that means. But it’s similar enough to the comments from the Russian side to make one think there may be some movement forward.
Continue reading “Ukraine Miscellany #2” →
National security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday said that Russia’s missile strike in western Ukraine signals Russian President Vladimir Putin’s frustration with the progress troops have made on its invasion of the country.
Continue reading “Biden National Security Adviser: Russian Missile Strike In Western Ukraine Shows Putin’s Frustration” →
Former Attorney General Bill Barr on Sunday continued knocking former President Trump for pushing the Big Lie, while baselessly painting efforts to delegitimize the democratic process as something that happened on “both sides.”
Continue reading “Barr Likens Dealing With Trump And His Allies To ‘Wrestling With An Alligator’” →
A Texas judge on Friday night temporarily blocked Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) order to investigate gender-affirming care for transgender youth as “child abuse,” following a ruling earlier this month that barred the state from investigating the parents of a transgender teen.
Continue reading “Judge Temporarily Halts Texas From Probing Gender-Affirming Care For Minors As ‘Child Abuse’” →
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine took an increasingly deadly turn over the weekend, with new Russian strikes overnight close to the Polish border.
Here are the latest developments:
- Russian missiles struck a military training base in western Ukraine near the country’s border with Poland, known as the International Peacekeeping and Security Center, which served as a hub for Western arms shipments, and for Western forces to train Ukrainian fighters. The airstrike killed at least 35 and left more than 100 injured. Russia’s attack followed its threat to target foreign weapon shipments sent by the U.S. and other countries to assist Ukraine.
- Ukrainian officials, including Ukraine President Zelensky, reiterated calls for NATO to establish a no-fly zone following Russia’s strike. NATO has refused to impose a no-fly zone, fearing that the attacks on Russian forces necessary to enforce it could lead to a wider war with Russia.
- Another Russian airstrike targeted the southern port city of Mykolaiv, near the Black Sea. Authorities reported nine civilians dead from the bombings. Mykolayiv is among the heavily contested areas of the country, sitting halfway between the Russia-annexed Crimea and Odessa, Ukraine’s largest Black Sea port.
- Russia installed a new “acting mayor” of the southern city of Melitopol after Russian troops reportedly abducted its mayor, Ivan Fyodorov, who had been encouraging residents of his city to resist occupation. On Friday evening, Russian soldiers put a bag over Fyodorov’s head and dragged him from his government office, according to Ukrainian officials. The Ukrainian government believes Fyodorov is being tortured and urged the international community to call for his release. Large crowds gathered in Melitopol on Saturday to protest the alleged abduction of Fyodorov by Russian troops, which Zelensky described as a “crime against democracy.” The new, Russia-installed mayor, Galyna Danylchenko, urged residents of Melitopol not to resist.
- Turkey sent buses to evacuate a group of Turkish citizens sheltering in a mosque in Mariupol, but difficulties arose amid ongoing fighting in the city and damaged cell phone networks. Ukrainian officials’ attempts to send buses full of food and medicine into the city have also failed amid a blockade by Russian forces.
As long time readers know, I spent most of my 20s training to be a historian. In fact it was what I was certain I wanted to do since High School. And then right about my mid-20s I realized somehow it just didn’t fit. Or wouldn’t fit for me. But that was a professional decision. History remained my guiding passion and my prism for much of my understanding of the world. Which brings me to the subject of history podcasts. I’m not a big podcast guy — despite having my own podcast. This is probably because I’ve been blessed for many years with a commute that is only a few blocks. So I’m not a huge podcast listener, though I’ve listened to more since the pandemic. But when I find one I like — really always a history podcast — well, I really go all in.
Early in the pandemic I started listening to something called the History of Singapore podcast. Unfortunately, it only seemed to run for a single season. But I loved it. In addition to the history of Singapore being fascinating and compelling in itself the show provided a fascinating perspective on the decolonization movements of the mid-20th century.
Continue reading “The British History Podcast” →
There were reports overnight from the AP and CNN that armor from that convoy outside of Kyiv had “dispersed” into smaller groups. It was unclear to me just what dispersed meant. It could mean a million things. But subsequent reporting suggests – not surprisingly – that they’ve moved off into the woods in smaller groups. And that seems to be for protection. When the country is bristling with anti-tank weapons being stuck in a miles long convoy of tanks and other army is about the most dangerous place you can be. You’re out in the open. You’re not moving. In some cases the vehicles are broken down or out of gas. They appear to be dispersing to make themselves less vulnerable targets.
This seems to be a significant part of the story. Logistical breakdowns are leaving Russian armor either stranded or broken down or without clear orders and they are then vulnerable to attack by far more mobile Ukrainian army units with sophisticated anti-tank weaponry.
