Is the Russian offensive grinding to a halt? Or is this a calm before the storm?
That’s the question before us today, as Russian advances on Ukrainian territory have slowed dramatically over the past week.
To some, that’s of a piece with potential softening in Russian rhetoric around the war. The Kremlin’s spokesman didn’t mention the “denazification” of Ukraine as part of Russia’s war goals during a briefing this week, and Vladimir Putin himself said on Friday that he saw some “positive shifts” in Ukraine’s position. President Zelensky told ABC this week that he had “cooled off” on Ukraine joining NATO, a key Russian talking point.
Alternatively, everything may be about to get far, far worse.
Satellite imaging company Maxar released photos on Thursday suggesting that Russia had repositioned its infamously stalled convoy to launch artillery strikes on and storm Kyiv. The Kremlin launched missiles at far western Ukraine, while the White House warned that Russia may be about to deploy a chemical weapons attack. And while negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue, it’s not clear that the Kremlin’s core goals have really changed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed at talks in Turkey on Thursday that Russia “did not attack Ukraine.”
In either scenario, it seems that this stage of the conflict may be at an inflection point: is this a point from which we’ll see a big comedown? Or a prelude to something far, far worse?
Is the Russian offensive grinding to a halt? Or is this a calm before the storm?
That’s the question before us today, as Russian advances on Ukrainian territory have slowed dramatically over the past week.
To some, that’s of a piece with potential softening in Russian rhetoric around the war. The Kremlin’s spokesman didn’t mention the “denazification” of Ukraine as part of Russia’s war goals during a briefing this week, and Vladimir Putin himself said on Friday that he saw some “positive shifts” in Ukraine’s position. President Zelensky told ABC this week that he had “cooled off” on Ukraine joining NATO, a key Russian talking point.
Alternatively, everything may be about to get far, far worse.
Satellite imaging company Maxar released photos on Thursday suggesting that Russia had repositioned its infamously stalled convoy to launch artillery strikes on and storm Kyiv. The Kremlin launched missiles at far western Ukraine, while the White House warned that Russia may be about to deploy a chemical weapons attack. And while negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue, it’s not clear that the Kremlin’s core goals have really changed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed at talks in Turkey on Thursday that Russia “did not attack Ukraine.”
In either scenario, it seems that this stage of the conflict may be at an inflection point: is this a point from which we’ll see a big comedown? Or a prelude to something far, far worse?
Unfortunately, it seems like this is the likely outcome.
Nothing worse than a cornered rat.
Speaking of rats…
Whatever Russia does, the West’s task remains essentially unaltered and that is to make continuation of this war, and any short-term victory, such a huge net loss for Russia that nothing like it will happen for a long, long time and that includes seeing to it that Putin cannot offload any of that cost.
ETA (tl/dr;)
Hey, I’d install a heat pump in a second if there were federal subsidies to increase energy independence.
This is a Naomi Klein “shock doctrine” moment that would allow us to develop alternative energy sources and reduce global warming.
“More of this, please!”
– My hypothetical grandchildren
Success depends on the percentage of European homes that have central heat and air.
Only about 5% have air conditioning, and gas space heaters are common. There are about 23 million heat pumps in all of Europe.
I can imagine the Fox headlines, though…