What Republicans Will Do If They Win The House, In Their Own Words

Predicting elections is a fool’s errand, and we are living at a time of dramatic crosscurrents. 

Republicans tout high inflation, low (though improving) approval numbers for President Joe Biden and the historical reality that the President’s party nearly always loses seats in his first midterm election. Democrats are counting on the Supreme Court’s landmark decision to overturn abortion rights, and the rage it’s unleashed, along with a slate of very weak Republican candidates in some key races. 

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Timeline: The Mar-a-Lago Scandal From Start To Raid

The scandal that erupted in August over former President Trump taking, secreting, and refusing to hand Presidential and classified records back to the government was based in a dispute that had been ongoing since he left office.

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Pay Attention

I want to flag your attention to what is happening tonight at Evin Prison in Tehran. Evin is a notorious prison complex known for housing many of the clerical regime’s political prisoners, including dual citizens. The complex is the scene of a fire tonight along with gunfire and explosions. I hesitate to say much more about it since it is a topic in which I have no expertise; even for those who do it is very difficult to understand just what is going on. Who started the fire or how did it start? Who is shooting who? There are reports security forces creating a cordon around the prison, preventing civilians from approaching it. But the mix of events – a fire at a prison complex heavily associated with regime repression, gunshots and explosions, ancillary protests on the periphery of the complex – have a strong regime crisis feel to them. It seems to mark a qualitative escalation from the continuing protests that roiled the country over recent weeks.

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Who’s Pumped Up?

This is just a tiny morsel of data. So it may simply be noise. But it caught my eye. Recent polls in two key senate races show big spreads between registered and likely voters. Traditionally likely voter screens tend to favor Republicans, who are more regular voters. In recent years though that has been less consistent. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted 9/26 to 10/2 in Nevada gave Catherine Cortez Masto a +3 advantage among registered voters and -2 among likely voters. A Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin conducted from 10/3-10/9 showed an even race among registered voters and Ron Johnson up 6 points over Mandela Barnes among likely voters.

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And There’s More

New documents released under Florida’s sunshine law have revealed more details of the Perla-DeSantis hoodwink operation in San Antonio. DeSantis Public Safety Czar Larry Keefe, the former lawyer for the contractor Florida has already paid $1.5 million for the Vineyard migrant flight, was closely involved in the operation. He directed the “Perla” crew’s operation from Florida. Critically, Keefe made at least one trip to San Antonio to oversee the operation.

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New Laws In Place For 2022 Midterms Could Slap Election Workers With Felonies For Minor Mistakes

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, extremist candidates, state legislatures and disgruntled Trump supporters have come together to attack election workers. Among the fruits of their labor are a collection of new laws across the country that impose strict new penalties on election workers — in some cases for minor mistakes, or for carrying out their work in the way they have in past elections. 

At least six laws in five states — Alabama, Arizona, Kentucky, Missouri and Oklahoma — create new penalties for election workers, according to a Brennan Center for Justice analysis outlining new voting restrictions that have been enacted during this year’s legislative session.

The penalties for these new rules aren’t light, either: At least half of them threaten election workers with felony convictions.

Two such laws were passed in Arizona, a state that has become ground-zero for attacks on election administration: H.B. 2237 prohibits same-day voting registration while H.B. 2492 requires that election officials ensure that voters provide “satisfactory evidence of citizenship” to cast their ballot.

Arizona’s laws both threaten Class 6 felonies, which can result in a prison sentence of up to 5 or 6 years

The laws “criminalize basic human error,” said Tammy Patrick, a senior advisor to the Elections program at the Democracy Fund and a former Arizona elections administrator.  

“In some states, if you mail out information that turns out to be incorrect or have a proofing or transcription error, those would then be criminal activities,” she told TPM.

The charges, ironically, could also imperil an election worker’s right to vote: While Arizona does automatically restore voting rights to formerly incarcerated citizens upon release, they only regain that right once they’ve completed their prison sentence or probation.

“By turning something that might be an innocent mistake or disagreement about how to interpret the law into a criminal act,” Gowri Ramachandran, senior counsel to the Brennan Center’s Democracy program, told TPM, “it increases the temperature and makes election officials concerned that they’re going to get blamed and threatened for things that people don’t like.”

“Election officials, of course, always strive for 100% accuracy and correctness,” Patrick said, “but elections are conducted by people and people can make mistakes.”

The severity of these penalties have already led some election workers to leave their jobs. Ramachandran recalled the case of Roxana Moritz, a chief election officer in Davenport, Iowa, who resigned from her position last year after Iowa enacted a new voting law in February 2021.

Iowa’s S.F. 413 shortened the early voting period from 29 days to 20 and closed polls an hour earlier. But it also imposed fines on poll workers of up to $10,000 for making any “technical infractions” that violate the state’s election rules or guidance from the secretary of state, and made it a felony to disregard election guidance from the secretary of state.

Before the law was passed, Moritz gave poll workers hazard pay for working through the pandemic, but failed to get approval for granting $9,400 in extra pay. “I could be charged with a felony. I could lose my voting rights,” she told the New York Times last June. “So I decided to leave.”

The new rules couldn’t have come at a worse time for election workers, as thousands across the country have either been flooded with death threats or manipulated by partisan actors trying to control the process from within.

Another Brennan Center study from March found that twenty percent of the local election officials they surveyed were “very” or “somewhat unlikely” to stay in their positions through to the 2024 presidential election.

“There’s an ongoing weaponization of election administration,” Patrick notes. “They’re again trying to pull in this narrative that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and that’s why they have to pass these kinds of laws, to curtail all of the supposed rampant fraud that occurred when in reality there was no rampant fraud.”

Ramachandran believes that the departure of election administrators like Moritz hints at an unfortunate pattern to come. “It’s just making an even more difficult environment for election workers when we know that it’s already such an intense environment for them,” she told TPM. 

“It’s a tough job,” she said. “We want people who are really committed to it to continue.”

DOJ Asks 11th Circuit To Overturn Entire Cannon Order

The Florida judge who blocked the DOJ’s investigation into classified records held at Mar-a-Lago undermined her own ruling, prosecutors said in a filing before the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals.

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Momentum Builds As Indiana Democrats Speak Out Against Potentially Devastating Supreme Court Case

Indiana Democrats are coming out against a Supreme Court case brought by one of their own municipally owned corporations that risks hobbling critical social safety net programs like Medicaid. 

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