The Hidden History of Juneteenth.
Why Changing The Way We See The Civil War Will Help Us Preserve Our Country
Arrest Of 3 Members Of Atlanta Charity Board In SWAT Raid Is Unusual And Could Be Unconstitutional
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
On May 31, 2023, the Atlanta Police Department deployed a SWAT team to arrest Marlon Kautz, Adele MacLean and Savannah Patterson. These three people weren’t fugitives from justice or drug kingpins, but rather volunteer board members of a local charity.
Continue reading “Arrest Of 3 Members Of Atlanta Charity Board In SWAT Raid Is Unusual And Could Be Unconstitutional”96.4% Of Americans Had COVID-19 Antibodies In Their Blood By Fall 2022
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, were present in the blood of 96.4% of Americans over the age of 16 by September 2022. That’s according to a serosurvey – an analysis testing for the presence of these immune defense molecules – conducted on samples from blood donors.
A serosurvey like this one helps researchers estimate how many people have been exposed to any part of the coronavirus, whether via vaccination or infection. Both can trigger the generation of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. And by identifying which kind of antibodies someone has in their blood, researchers can break down the 96.4% into different types of immunity: infection-derived, vaccine-derived and hybrid.
COVID-19 vaccines used in the United States are based on only one part of the virus – the spike, or S, protein. Researchers can tell that a person has been vaccinated and has not been infected if their blood has only anti-S antibodies that target that spike protein. If someone has anti-N antibodies, which target the virus’s nucleocapsid protein, it’s a sign that they’ve been infected by SARS-CoV-2. To reliably identify someone with hybrid immunity, a researcher would need to match someone who has anti-N antibodies to an official vaccination database.
What about the 3.6% without antibodies?
Immunologists know that antibody levels decrease in the months after a COVID-19 infection or vaccination, and this is true for many pathogens. It’s possible some people did have antibodies at one point, but they’re no longer detectable. And not every infection leads to a detectable antibody response, particularly if the case was mild or asymptomatic.
Another factor is the accuracy of the antibody test. No test is perfect, so a small percentage of people who truly have antibodies might come up negative.
Together, these considerations mean that the 96.4% number is likely an underestimate. It seems reasonable to conclude that almost no one in this population has neither been infected by SARS-CoV-2 nor received a COVID-19 vaccine. https://www.youtube.com/embed/fgmhm4IX-M8?wmode=transparent&start=0 Here’s how antibodies help your body fight against an invader like the coronavirus.
A clearer picture of a virus’s spread
Serosurveys are useful for understanding how likely different types of people – of varying ages or races, for example – were to have been infected. For this purpose, a serosurvey can be much more reliable than using data on people who received a positive PCR test, or who report having had a positive rapid antigen test, because getting a positive test is heavily influenced by access to care, health care behavior and how severe your illness is. These are sources of what is called bias.
This bias has two effects: It leads to large underestimation of the proportion of the overall population infected, and it can lead to spurious differences between groups. For example, people with mild symptoms are less likely to get tested and are also likely to be younger. Researchers might draw the wrong conclusion that because they’re not getting tested these people aren’t actually catching the virus.
Looking at antibodies as a marker of infection is not biased by such behavioral factors. Many serosurveys, including ones that we worked on in Chennai, India, and Salvador, Brazil, found similar or even higher seroprevalence in children compared with young adults, contradicting an early narrative that children were less susceptible to the virus. Instead, our results suggested that infections in children were less likely to be detected.
What does this statistic mean for future waves?
Antibodies are not just a marker of previous infection; part of their job is to help prevent future infection with the same pathogen. So, serosurveys can be used to understand levels of immunity in the population.
For some diseases, like measles, immunity is essentially lifelong, and having antibodies means you are protected. However, for SARS-CoV-2 this is not the case, because the virus has continually evolved new variants that are able to reinfect people despite their antibodies.
Nevertheless, many studies have shown that individuals with hybrid immunity will be more protected against future infection and variants than those with vaccine- or infection-derived immunity alone. It may be useful to know the proportion of the population with single-source immunity in order to target certain groups with vaccination campaigns.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Thanks, Folks (A Post With Actual Content, Not Just Pleas for Money!)
It’s looking like we’ll hit the $300,000 milestone today in this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. So big thanks for that. This isn’t just a pro-forma comment. It’s a big deal. So thank you. I noted that we recorded a special extra episode of the podcast this week with Kate and I and special guest Joe Ragazzo, TPM’s Publisher, talking about how TPM operates on the inside, our business model, how it’s changed over the years, lots of the nuts and bolts of operating a small media organization. You can listen to that here, and, if you don’t already, subscribe to the pod through iTunes or Spotify or some other service. You can even watch the video version here.
Since some of you have asked, I thought I’d share some details about how the drive has gone. Just because you might find it interesting. Now, one small caveat. A few of these numbers were compiled yesterday. So a few are slightly out of date. But pretty close. So here goes.
As of this moment, we’ve had 2,877 individual contributors.
Continue reading “Thanks, Folks (A Post With Actual Content, Not Just Pleas for Money!)”Need This Milestone
I know these pushes may seem like a distraction from the news you come here for. But I assure you they’re essential. We’re pushing hard to get to the next milestone in our drive — 3/5ths of the way to our goal. We’re currently at $267,607 and we need to push as hard as we can to get to $300,000 by the end of the day. The way drives work is we get a surge of contributions at the beginning, and then weeks two, three and four are the slog. I’ve spoken to many of you who plan to contribute and are waiting for a convenient moment. Please make the convenient moment today if you can. Just click right here and we’ll keep focused on bringing you the latest on the ten different things that are unfolding in the news today.
Late Update: We are now at $278,952. We can really get there today.
Later Update: Now at $283,530.
Even Later Update: Now at $287,700.
Still Later Update: Now at $291,483
So Much Later It’s the Next Morning Update: Now at $295,731!
Listen To This: Inside TPM
A new bonus episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! Josh and Kate are joined by TPM publisher Joe Ragazzo to talk the business side of journalism, and how TPM has both survived and thrived in such a perilous media landscape. (If you’re able, please donate to the journalism fund and help keep TPM humming!)
You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.
Conservative-Dominated Iowa Supreme Court Deadlocks On Six-Week Ban, Keeping Abortion Legal
The Iowa Supreme Court split 3-3 on reviving a six-week abortion ban Friday, blocking the ban and keeping the procedure legal in the state.
Continue reading “Conservative-Dominated Iowa Supreme Court Deadlocks On Six-Week Ban, Keeping Abortion Legal”E. Jean Carroll’s Next Defamation Trial Scheduled For January, Adding Onto Trump’s Busy 2024
A federal judge in New York scheduled writer E. Jean Carroll’s remaining defamation lawsuit against former president Donald Trump for trial in January, adding onto the long list of legal perils the 2024 candidate is facing in the election year.
Continue reading “E. Jean Carroll’s Next Defamation Trial Scheduled For January, Adding Onto Trump’s Busy 2024”Donald Trump Keeps On Confessing To His MAL Crimes
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.
Just Keep Talking, Donald, Just Keep Talking
In speeches, social media posts, and friendly TV interviews, former President Donald Trump keeps clownishly making admission after admission that is admissible against him in the Mar-a-Lago case.
It’s been a running joke for a long time now that Trump is his own worst enemy (though that often bleeds into weird, excuse-making analyses by his adherents and by credulous reporters). But this is a different flavor of self-own.
The statements Trump has made in recent days could very well be used by Special Counsel Jack Smith at trial. They expand upon and reinforce some of the public statements that Trump already made that Smith ended up putting in the Mar-a-Lago indictment.
A great example of Trump giving up the whole game in a post yesterday:
His post-arraignment speech at Bedminster earlier in the week was also a classic example, as former Mueller prosecutor Andrew Weissman observed:
There is a more sophisticated, nuanced way of looking at this (though I do prefer the hilarity of it to the more sober analysis):
Trump’s legal & political strategies continue to conflict.
— Mark S. Zaid (@MarkSZaidEsq) June 16, 2023
Legally, every time he “speaks” he brings himself one step closer to conviction.
Politically, to his benefit to be grandiose & aggressive. Raises funds, creates support & polarizes.
Which will prevail ultimately? https://t.co/f6keddmyBN
Seen this way, Trump’s presidential campaign IS his defense strategy. The factual evidence is overwhelmingly against him, and he had few legitimate legal arguments to make. But running again puts in play, among other things, Trump as a victim, “election interference,” and his double reverse “DOJ weaponization” argument.
He went so far as to accelerate his campaign announcement in order to put his favorite rhetorical gimmick more fully in play: Biden and DOJ are interfering in this election! Trump has raised this argument in court since last August, when he tried to use U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon to thwart the Mar-a-Lago case.
But beyond the case itself, Trump’s best chance of preserving his own liberty is to win re-election and scuttle the federal prosecutions against him by some combination of hiding behind the notorious OLC opinion that a sitting president cannot be criminally prosecuted, ordering DOJ to stand down, or pardoning himself.
To the extent his devastating public admissions help him politically even though they hurt him legally, don’t take that as some evil genius move. It’s just another sign of his self-delusion and desperation, though for much of his life those two things have perversely resulted in a form of self-preservation.
And Off We Go …
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has given defense lawyers in the Mar-a-Lago case until June 20 to confirm to her that they have contacted the Justice Department about obtaining security clearances to handle the classified discovery in the case.
Still Unearthing Jan. 6 Details
TPM:
Bernie Kerik had a plan to keep former President Trump in office after losing the 2020 election — and he knew how much it would cost. Roughly.
Per an email surfaced in a defamation lawsuit brought against Rudy Giuliani, Kerik wrote to then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows in a Dec. 28, 2020 missive that he would need “between $5 to $8M” to put a plan into action that would pressure state legislators into throwing their electors behind Trump.
Why Did Rudy G Use ‘Helen’ As Email Alias?
TPM’s Hunter Walker and Josh Kovensky explain.
Tish James Has Received Death Threats While Pursuing Trump
New York AG Tish James: “I have more law enforcement around me these days, individuals have threatened my life, but I will not be paralyzed by fear by no means. I’m from Brooklyn.”
Gonna Be A Helluva 2024 Primary Season
The judge has set a Jan. 15, 2024 trial date for E. Jean Carroll’s other defamation lawsuit against Donald Trump.
Fox News Poised To Settle Ex-Producer’s Lawsuit
CNN:
Abby Grossberg, the former network producer who filed an explosive complaint against the company in March, is in the final stages of ironing out a settlement with the company, I’m told. …
Representatives for both Grossberg and Fox News declined to comment on Thursday. While the deal is close to being finalized, last-minute hiccups are always possible. The terms of the agreement are not known.
Heads Up
We rarely know which Supreme Court rulings are coming when, but another round of decisions are to be announced this morning, with the big affirmative action case the main one on our radar.
Consent Decree Coming For Minneapolis PD?
The Justice Department is expected to release the results of its investigation into the Minneapolis Police Department launched in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd:
The report is expected to be released at a news conference with Attorney General Merrick Garland, Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta and city officials. The contents of the report are not yet known, but people familiar with the investigation said the inquiry uncovered significant systemic problems and could lead to an agreement between the parties, known as a consent decree, overseen by a federal judge.
2024 Ephemera
- Politico: After squandering a chance to draw congressional maps more favorable to their electoral prospects, Democrats in New York and Wisconsin are eying a redo.
- ProPublica: Voting Maps Throughout the Deep South May Be Redrawn After Surprise Supreme Court Ruling
Discord Leaker Indicted
Airman Jack Teixeira was indicted by a federal grand jury in Boston on six counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information.
US Gov’t Agencies Hacked
WSJ:
Several U.S. government agencies, including the Energy Department, have been hacked in a data-stealing cyberattack exploiting a software bug that had already compromised major businesses in the U.K. and elsewhere, U.S. officials said Thursday.
While officials were still investigating the intrusions, they said none of the pilfered data had apparently been leaked online so far and that no extortion demands had been paid to the hackers. A Russian-speaking criminal group was likely responsible, officials said.
Hello, Wyoming
WaPo: America’s unlikeliest abortion clinic has opened in its reddest state
Your Modern Republican Party …
The RNC is refusing to carve out an exception to its loyalty pledge – meaning candidates for president must agree to support the eventual nominee – for when the nominee is a convicted felon. Hypothetically speaking, of course.
Like Morning Memo? Let us know!
Stop for Two Minutes
We need to keep our momentum going in this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. I know it’s easy to put things off. I do it all the time. So I wanted to ask if you can take a two-minute time out from whatever you’re doing at this moment and contribute to this year’s drive. Like literally right now. If you’re a member you don’t even need to get out your credit card. It’s super simple and fast. Just choose whatever amount you feel comfortable giving. It helps us so much. Just click right here.