First: The fact that Kevin McCarthy was ousted with the motion to vacate was not a huge surprise. The huge surprise was that within less than two hours of the vote he threw in the towel and effectively ended not only his Speakership but his political career. It’s still not clear to me whether he had key conversations during that short interlude that told him it was hopeless or that, at a basic level, he simply didn’t have the fight in him. By all accounts it was a total stunner for basically everyone in the Tuesday evening conference meeting.
Continue reading “Morning Observations and Questions”Kevin McCarthy’s Ouster Is A Mere Symptom Of The Deeper GOP Pathology
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
It’s Systemic Not Personal
Between the comedic value, the schadenfreude, the story-telling appeal, and voyeuristic frisson, there’s a lot to love about the downfall of Kevin McCarthy. He deserved everything he got. The House GOP is a colossal mess. If you like spectacles that reinforce your priors and expose the foibles of the incompetent and cruel, this is a glorious time.
“At the start, his speakership was effectively an optical illusion,” John Harris writes. “At the end, it was an exercise in self-abasement.” Indeed.
But this is not really about Kevin McCarthy. He’s a stand-in. Before him were the chronically debased Paul Ryan and John Boehner. The House GOP has been on this merry-go-round for more than a decade.
McCarthy’s downfall is another symptom of the same underlying pathologies: a cultish GOP in thrall to a would-be autocrat, anti-majoritarian structural impediments, a surge in right-wing extremism, white resentments and grievances channeled into a burn-it-all-down fever.
It’s why spending even a moment purporting to analyze whether Democrats “joined” the MAGA right to depose McCarthy is foolishness. This is about right-wing politics in America. But more importantly, there was nothing cathartic about McCarthy’s ouster. It doesn’t change the underlying systemic problems.
It also makes the glut of analysis that focuses on tactical tricks or 3D-chess moves seem so trite and ill-conceived. You can’t “tactics” your way out of deeply rooted systemic problems, no matter how clever you may be.
I’m a firm believer in the credo that things can always get worse, not as a lament, or a throwing up of the hands, but as a cold-eyed assessment of the road ahead. With McCarthy out, things can definitely get worse.
What’s Next?
Let’s preface this with the observation that no one really knows what’s next. This is uncharted territory. The House GOP is a rolling clown show and that makes predictions foolhardy.
In the vacuum of certainty, everyone tries to find some semblance of order. So it was that Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC) sketched out a “schedule” for electing McCarthy’s successor:
- Next Tuesday: a candidate “forum” of some kind
- Next Wednesday: vote on a new speaker.
That sounds like a structured, planned approach. But it’s really not. They’re winging it.
Succession
Most of the coverage of the succession question is focused on Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, with a little noise around Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern (R-OK).
Did I mention that things could get worse before they better?
Does It Even Matter?
I’m not even sure the succession question is the right question. Will the House GOP change the rule that McCarthy agreed to as a price of winning the speakership that leaves a motion to vacate hanging over the head of any speaker like a sword of Damocles?
If not, then the next speaker may not have a real majority anymore than McCarthy did.
Again, this is systemic. Not personal.
That Poor Gavel
For The Record
The eight House GOP mutineers who ousted McCarthy:
- Matt Gaetz (FL)
- Andy Biggs (AZ)
- Tim Burchett (TN) t
- Eli Crane (AZ)
- Nancy Mace (SC)
- Matt Rosendale (MT)
- Bob Good (VA)
- Ken Buck (CO)
Don’t Feel Sorry For McCarthy
McHenry Boots Pelosi From Her Capitol Hideaway
Among Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHeny’s first acts: booting Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer from their plum Capitol offices.
Full Pelosi statement: pic.twitter.com/BSigojhRaC
— Nicholas Wu (@nicholaswu12) October 3, 2023
Pelosi, who missed the McCarthy ouster to be back home for the series of memorial events for the late Sen. Dianna Feinstein (D-CA), being vaguely retaliated against while she’s away is extra galling – but exactly the kind of bullying we’ve come to expect.
What’s Happening Here?
Taken together, McCarthy’s lashing out at Dems after his own party dumped him, McHenry inflicting pain on former Dem leaders, and inane analysis egged on by Republicans, is sooo symptomatic of the current GOP.
Cruelty remains its most vital currency, the thing that unites them despite all their other divisions. Lashing out, exacting “revenge” for perceived slights, framing the world in a binary friend v. foe way is the quickest way to reestablish internally something that vaguely looks like unity. It’s also a flex for a new albeit temporary leader like McHenry.
There’s also an element of bullying rolling downhill, with the bullied and abused taking out their frustrations and acting out their damaged psyches by bullying and abusing others.
Truth
Groan …
Trump Slapped With Gag Order
A lot has happened since yesterday’s Morning Memo on Trump’s attacks against the New York court hearing his civil fraud trial. The attacks continued, with a Truth Social post by Trump targeting the court clerk and Trump’s campaign doing an oppo research dump on the judge. TPM’s Hunter Walker reports on the crazy day in court.
Chutkan Calls Trump’s Bluff On Security Clearances
A play in three parts:
Act I: As part of its delay strategy, Trump’s legal team told the U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan it needed more time to obtain the necessary security clearances.
Act II: Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team responded that some of Trump’s lawyers still hadn’t turned in the necessary paperwork.
Act III: Chutkan ordered Trump’s legal team to get its shit together on security clearances by next week.
Rudy G’s Long Descent
The NYT goes deep on Rudy Giuliani’s drinking:
Yet to almost anyone in proximity, friends say, Mr. Giuliani’s drinking has been the pulsing drumbeat punctuating his descent — not the cause of his reputational collapse but the ubiquitous evidence, well before Election Day in 2020, that something was not right with the former president’s most incautious lieutenant.
MUST READ
Tim Miller: Those Crazy Plans for Trump 2.0? Take Them Seriously.
SCOTUS May Spare The CFPB
In oral arguments Tuesday, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority was less open to gutting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau than legal observers had expected.
Fifth Circuit Is Gonna Fifth Circuit
The most conservative appeals court ended up doing what it screwed up trying to do last week in the big case against the Biden administration’s handling of misinformation on social media platforms.
A Good Point On SCOTUS And The Fifth Circuit
With the Fifth Circuit serving as a steady pipeline of crazy-ass conservative legal theories, keep this in mind:
Hardball
Leonard Leo is refusing to cooperate with the DC attorney general’s investigation into his tangled web of dark money outfits and conservative legal advocacy.
Physics Don’t Care Who The Speaker Of The House Is
More on September’s record-shattering heat here.
Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!
An Observation
Here is the chain of events as I understand them. Yesterday Matt Gaetz filed his motion to vacate. Last night then-Speaker McCarthy challenged Gaetz on Twitter to “bring it on.” Today McCarthy decided to hold the vote at the first opportunity rather than wait. It quickly became apparent McCarthy would lose the vote. He did lose the vote. Then a few hours later he told his caucus that he wouldn’t be running to get the job back. He was out for good.
His colleagues were apparently stunned by the announcement. His allies were prepping for a grueling fight to regain the Speakership. The length of time between McCarthy’s ouster and his announcement was roughly two hours. That’s enough time to have a few conversations and get the impression it’s too high a hill. But just barely. It’s hard to look at these facts and not conclude that McCarthy simply didn’t have the fight in him.
Amazing
I find this both fascinating and comical. The first big collateral damage of McCarthy’s fall may be the bipartisan “problem solvers caucus”. This is the group organized by the No Labels folks. But it’s basically a centrist group with members from both parties. Axios reports that the Republicans are livid with their Democratic colleagues for letting Kevin McCarthy go down the tubes.
Continue reading “Amazing”Welp
That did not play out how I expected. No other way to put it. Kevin McCarthy was ousted and then within hours he self-ousted. He’s out. He won’t try to win back the gavel. (Someone in that position almost inevitably leaves Congress. But that’s a story for another day.) Now the race seems – at least for the moment – fairly wide open.
The whole drama is vaguely reminiscent of the day of chaos that launched the Speakership of Denny Hastert 25 years ago. People i’ve spoken to speak of confusion, chaos, uncertainty. All of that makes sense. The one thing that stands out to me is that the supposedly most hated guy in the caucus decided to throw down the gauntlet and he won. He made a decision and McCarthy is gone. It’s very hard for me to see how that doesn’t leave if not Gaetz himself then Gaetz’s crew much more powerful than they were. The next Speaker knows the price of crossing them.
McCarthy Loses Gavel In Far Right Mutiny
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on Tuesday lost the job he endured 15 votes to secure back in January, as a faction of his own party forced his ouster.
Eight Republicans joined all the Democrats to oust the speaker.
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), a close McCarthy ally, will take over as Speaker Pro Tempore until another election is held.
After a very quick meeting late Tuesday evening, Republican members told reporters that McCarthy said he won’t run again, and that he didn’t name a successor.
After Clerical Error, 5th Circuit Still Gives Red States Bonus Win In Biden Social Media Case
A Fifth Circuit panel on Tuesday gave red states a win on barring additional government agencies from flagging misinformation to social media companies — a week after it accidentally published an order in error that arrived at a similar result.
Continue reading “After Clerical Error, 5th Circuit Still Gives Red States Bonus Win In Biden Social Media Case”Trial Judge Issues A Gag Order After Trump Launches Wild And False Attacks On His Court Clerk
On the second day of his civil trial in New York City, former President Trump and his campaign let loose a series of false and inflammatory attacks on Arthur Engoron, the judge presiding over the case, and his court clerk. The barrage went beyond even what we have previously seen from Trump, who has had a habit of making incendiary statements about prosecutors and others while being involved in multiple court cases.
Engoron responded with a gag order that specifically barred Trump from discussing the judge’s staff.
“Consider this statement a gag order forbidding all parties from posting emailing or speaking publicly about any of my staff,” Engoron said, according to the Guardian. “Personal attacks on members of my court staff are unacceptable, inappropriate and I will not tolerate them in any circumstances.
Engoron further said a violation of the order would result in “serious sanctions.”
Trump’s wild series of attacks came as he and his lawyers were in Engoron’s courtroom. The former president is currently in the midst of four criminal prosecutions related to his efforts to stay in power, his handling of classified documents, and alleged hush money payments to cover up an affair. The former president’s comments have led federal prosecutors in the Jan. 6 case to seek a limited gag order due to what they have described as Trump’s “sustained campaign of prejudicial public statements” against witnesses and others involved in the trial. A judge is set to rule on that request later this month.
The civil case in New York, which was brought by state Attorney General Letitia James, is related to alleged fraud connected to Trump’s real estate company. Among other things, James has accused the former president of inflating the value of his assets to secure favorable terms on loans. Trump, who denies any wrongdoing, has repeatedly attacked James, accusing her of unspecified corruption and of being “a terrible person.” After the trial began on Monday, Trump briefly spoke to reporters outside the court and declared to reporters that someone “ought to go after this attorney general.”
James, Engoron, and the judge’s clerk did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Along with leading to potential sanctions and setbacks in the courtroom, Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric creates a clear danger of threats against others involved in the cases. A slew of prosecutors and judges have faced threats from Trump and his followers amid the extensive legal drama that followed efforts from the former president and his allies to falsely question the results of his 2020 election loss. The dangers have led to stepped up security measures at some of Trump’s trials.
The barrage unleashed by Trump and his team on Tuesday included a social media post baselessly describing Engoron’s clerk as Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s “girlfriend.” Trump posted the claim, which mirrors a storyline that originated on a defunct conservative satire site, on his Truth Social platform along with a link to the clerk’s personal Instagram page, a move which increases the risk of targeted harassment. A spokesperson for Schumer did not respond to a request for comment. Trump appears to have deleted the post.
Along with Trump’s attack on the court clerk, his re-election campaign sent an email to their press list with a dossier that attempted to cast Judge Engoron as partisan, based in part on completely incorrect information. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment..
In New York, supreme and civil court judges are elected. As a result, they often receive endorsements from local political figures and clubs. The dossier sent out by the Trump campaign highlighted Engoron’s past donations to Democratic politicians and a message he sent expressing gratitude to local political clubs including Democratic organizations. In a stunningly poor example of opposition research gone wrong, the Trump campaign mistakenly characterized the list as showing “a list of Democrats including Barack Obama” receiving gratitude from Engoron. However, former President Barack Obama was not actually on the list. Instead, Engoron had thanked the “Barack Obama Democratic Club,” an organization based in Upper Manhattan.
Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine, a Democrat who founded the club, told TPM former President Obama has nothing to do with the group.
“In New York City it is very common for Democratic clubs to be named after former presidents, from Thomas Jefferson to JFK. I was proud to found the Barack Obama Democratic Club of Upper Manhattan in that tradition,” Levine said in a text message. “I’m not sure President Obama ever was even aware of the club’s existence. To imply that Obama himself endorsed Judge Arthur Engoron in a Manhattan judicial race in 2015 is laughably absurd.”
In a separate message, moments after he found out his club was the basis of an attack from the Trump campaign, Levine offered a raw reaction to the spectacle of a former president attacking a sitting judge.
“This is insane,” Levine said.
What’s Next
Kevin McCarthy lost the first procedural vote. It now seems almost certain that he’ll lose the real vote and be ousted from the Speakership. Then the House Clerk will reveal a letter in which McCarthy placed a list of names of people who could serve as Speaker pro tem if McCarthy could no longer serve. The first name on that list will almost certainly be a loyalist.
So we’ll have McCarthy ousted but almost certainly still determined to reclaim the chair. The temporary Speaker will be one of his loyalists. It’s unclear whether that new temporary Speaker will have to start holding elections for a new Speaker literally immediately or whether he has a bit of flexibility. That person will almost certainly make that choice in the interests of McCarthy regaining the Speakership.
Watching these speeches though you get a strong, strong sense that the overwhelming majority of Republicans not only don’t support this but are really pissed about it. I’m certainly not the audience for these speeches. But the Gaetz group’s speeches don’t seem terribly persuasive even in a Republican context – at least not to fellow members of Congress. The members speaking up for McCarthy span the whole ideological range of the caucus. Each speech basically amounts to “I wanted this cool thing but didn’t get it”. It’s Kevin McCarthy’s fault that he couldn’t get every Republican to support the Good/Bigg/Gaetz line.
Smart Point
Just a quick point while we’re in between votes on Kevin McCarthy’s speakership.
In an interview with the Washington Post, Congress expert Matt Glassman offered this very succinct explanation of the problem McCarthy has been saddled with since January:
Just like the speaker’s election in January, it doesn’t do any good to get a majority one time. … To run the House, you need an ongoing majority, day in and day out, in order to set the floor agenda.
That’s it. That’s the whole deal. By that way of thinking, McCarthy has arguably never had a real majority. We’re about to find it if he does now.