A Dire New Threat Posed By Trump II Comes Into Focus

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Gathering Clouds

The most alarming revelation in that secret recording of Project 2025 architect Russ Vought was when he blithely dismissed the George Floyd protests in the historic summer of 2020 not as a reaction to systemic racism, police misconduct, and injustice but a guise for weakening the Trump administration.

“George Floyd obviously was not about race. It was about destabilizing the Trump administration,” Vought was recorded saying in the journalistic sting operation.

Vought, who was Trump’s OMB director, served in the White House during that fateful summer, so it’s hard not to conclude that what he’s expressing now is representative of what the internal interpretation of events was then. It fits. Trump would of course make the protests about him, even though their root causes preceded him by decades and the backlash had been well underway since at least Michael Brown’s killing in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014.

But as hard as it is, let’s set aside for the moment Vought’s astoundingly misguided comments about race. It’s what he said next in the video that made my eyes widen (emphasis mine):

We put out for instance a fifty-page paper designed for lawyers to know that the president has, you know, both the ability along the border and elsewhere to maintain law and order with the military. And that something that, you know, it’s going to be important for him to remember and his lawyers to affirm. But we’ve given them the case for that.

That segue in the video from the Black Lives Matter protests to the use of the military to maintain order (assuming that’s an unedited and clean segue) along the border “and elsewhere” caught the attention of the NYT, too.

Vought’s comments seem to have been a missing link of sorts, tying together Trump’s reported eagerness in his first term to use the military to quell protestors with efforts underway to plan for a Trump II and parallel efforts to maximize the opportunities to invoke the Insurrection Act while downplaying and minimizing the legal framework, like the Posse Comitatus Act, that keeps the military out of domestic law enforcement.

The NYT used Vought’s comment as a jumping off point for a triple-bylined piece it appears the paper was already reporting out on the far-right’s construction of a legal and political rationale for broadening its military-heavy, draconian border response to include domestic law enforcement:

“[A]s he has sought a return to power, [Trump] has made clear that he intends to use the military for a range of domestic law enforcement purposes, including patrolling the border, suppressing protests that he deems to have turned into riots and even fighting crime in big cities run by Democrats,” the NYT reports.

The NYT uncovered another missing link, an internal email from Vought’s Center for Renewing America sent in early 2023 that identified topics it was working on. Among those were several categorized as “day one” ideas that the president could unilaterally put into effect right off the bat. One of those was: “Insurrection — stop riots ** — Day 1, easy.”

There’s a lot here, and the NYT’s piece does a good job of pulling it all together. But we shouldn’t rush past the deeply troubling mindset that equates protests with an attack on a democratic regime. When they turn violent, protests are obviously a threat to the rule of law, but a threat to the rule of law is not the same as “destabilizing a regime.” Taking protests about police misconduct, over which the federal government has minimal oversight and responsibility, and making them about a threat to your own power is an authoritarian mindset.

What Project 2025 and Vought and the work they’ve been doing suggests is that a prospective Trump II will roar into office determined to flatten those distinctions into oblivion and treat future prospective protests like an existential political threat to him personally. It’s a recipe for lawlessness of a far different kind than it purports to stamp out. Be warned.

Democrats Gather In Chicago

The Democratic convention kicks off today in Chicago. The highlight of this evening’s primetime programming is President Biden’s speech. Timothy Snyder offers some historical perspective on how Biden arrived at this moment.

An abbreviated version of the convention schedule:

  • Monday: President Biden, Dr. Jill Biden, Hillary Clinton, and three women who suffered through difficult pregnancies in states with abortion bans.
  • Tuesday: Barack Obama and Michelle Obama
  • Wednesday: Tim Walz and Bill Clinton
  • Thursday: Kamala Harris

The Protests

The largest of the six major pro-Palestinian protests planned this week in Chicago on the sidelines of the Democratic convention is set for today, with the historical resonance of the 1968 Chicago convention protests hanging over the proceedings. Organizers expect 30,000-40,000 protestors at today’s march.

By The Numbers

  • CBS News/YouGov poll: Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 51%-48% among likely voters nationwide.
  • WaPo/ABC News/Ipsos poll: Harris leads Trump 49%-45% among registered voters nationwide.
  • NYT/Siena College poll: Harris has gained ground against Trump among likely voters in the Sun Belt battleground states. She leads him 50%-45% in Arizona and 49%-47% in North Carolina. Harris narrowed the gap in Georgia, where Trump still leads 50%-46%. In Nevada, Trump leads 48%-47%.

On The Trail

  • The Harris-Walz ticket spent Sunday on a joint bus tour through Western Pennsylvania.
  • Trump was in Pennsylvania on Saturday, where he continued to whine about Harris replacing Biden on the ticket, calling it a “coup” and an “overthrow,” all part of his broader gambit to delegitimize Harris and the election itself.
  • Trump is counter-programming the Democratic convention with his busiest campaign schedule since the GOP primary
    • Monday: Pennsylvania
    • Tuesday: Michigan, specifically a “crime and safety” speech in a place with some dark history
    • Wednesday: North Carolina
    • Thursday: Arizona
    • Friday: Nevada

Spot The Racism

‘A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats’

TPM’s Kate Riga: Kamala Harris Gives Sherrod Brown A Fighting Chance To Win in Ohio

Georgia Election Board Still At It

The MAGA-dominated Georgia Election Board is poised to adopt a rule today that would give county election board members an additional avenue to delay certification of election results.

2024 Ephemera

  • Big bucks: Harris campaign announces plan for $370 million battleground ad buy.
  • What happens when you start losing: Far-right influencers turn against Trump campaign.
  • The Harris campaign is bringing on Democratic lawyer Marc Elias to deal with potential election recounts, the NYT reports.

Which Women Count As Real Women?

Tressie McMillan Cottom:

The idea of a childless cat lady is an uninspired dog whistle among others — old maid, crone, witch — that are designed to reduce a woman’s social value to her ability and willingness to reproduce. When Vance says that Harris is one of many childless cat ladies who are miserable and trying to make the rest of the world miserable, he is calling on a set of sexist, racist ideas about which women are even allowed to count as real women. Namely, married mothers are real women, and the rest of us are horrible divergences from the social contract.

Of Course It Was A Political Scheme All Along

If you needed additional proof of the true purpose of the House GOP’s bogus Biden impeachment effort, look no further than the decision to sit on its 300-page impeachment report and then release it to coincide with the Democratic convention. Too bad for them that Biden isn’t the nominee any longer, but no worries: House Oversight James Comer (R-KY) is dutifully shifting his committee’s propaganda work to focus on Harris.

Some Solid TPM Scoopage

TPM’s Hunter Walker first reported late Friday on an impending plea agreement to resolve the federal criminal charges against former Rep. George Santos (R-Phantasmagoria). Victims and witnesses were being contacted by federal prosecutors and alerted to the expected plea deal, according to TPM’s report, which was subsequently picked up by the NYT and other outlets over the weekend.

Hmmm …

Last week, the FBI raided the Virginia farm of Dimitri Simes, the Russian-born DC think tanker who informally advised the 2016 Trump campaign and featured prominently in the Mueller report. It’s not clear publicly at least what exactly the FBI is investigating.

Totally Normal

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Election Deniers Secretly Pushed Rule That Would Make It Easier to Delay Certification of Georgia’s Election Results

This article first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

Georgia’s GOP-controlled State Election Board is poised to adopt a rule on Monday that would give county election board members an additional avenue to delay certification of election results, potentially allowing them to throw the state’s vote count into chaos this fall.

A former Fulton County election official who submitted an initial draft of the rule told ProPublica that she had done so at the behest of a regional leader of a right-wing organization involved in challenging the legitimacy of American election systems. That organization, the Election Integrity Network, is led by Cleta Mitchell, who helped orchestrate attempts to overturn the 2020 election and spoke on the call in which former President Donald Trump demanded that Georgia’s secretary of state “find” him 11,780 votes to undo Joe Biden’s victory.

The Election Integrity Network’s role in bringing forward the proposed rule has not been previously reported.

The State Election Board’s Monday meeting comes on the heels of a vote less than two weeks before that empowered county election board members to conduct “reasonable inquiry” into allegations of voting irregularities. That rule did not set deadlines for how long such inquiries might last or describe what they might entail, and critics worried that this omission could cause Georgia to miss the Dec. 11 deadline for sending its certified presidential election results to the federal government.

The new rule is even more concerning, election experts said, because it requires county boards to investigate discrepancies between the number of ballots cast and the number of people who voted in a precinct, no matter how minor. It bars counties from certifying the election tallies until officials can review an investigation of every precinct with inconsistent totals. Such inconsistencies are commonplace, not evidence of malfeasance, and only in extremely rare circumstances affect the outcome of elections. The requirement to explain every one of them and litigation around investigations into them could take far longer than the time allowed by law to certify.

“If this rule is adopted, any claims of fraud, any claims of discrepancies, could be the basis for a county board member — acting in bad faith — to say, ‘I’m not confident in the results,’ and hold up certification under the flimsiest of pretexts,” said Ben Berwick, who leads the election law and litigation team of Protect Democracy, a nonprofit that works to protect the integrity of American elections.

“The bottom line here,” Berwick said, is that “election deniers are intentionally creating a failure point in the process where they can interfere if they don’t like the results of an election.”

Until 2020, the certification of elections was a noncontroversial part of running them. After Trump made “stop the steal” a rallying cry in his attempt to overturn his loss to Biden, an increasing number of conservative election board members, especially at the county level, have attempted to block certification of subsequent elections. ProPublica has previously reported how these disruptions revealed weaknesses in the nation’s electoral system.

Among those who would have the ability to slow down the count in the fall is Julie Adams, who is a Republican member of the Fulton County elections board and a regional coordinator with Mitchell’s Election Integrity Network. She was sworn in to the Fulton board in February, and one of her first official acts was to vote against the certification of the March presidential primary election, saying she needed more information to investigate discrepancies. She was overruled by her colleagues. She then sued the board and the county’s election director, asking for the court to find that her duties, such as certification, “are, in fact, discretionary, not ministerial.” The suit is ongoing.

The State Election Board received the proposed rule in April from Vernetta Nuriddin, a former member of the Fulton County elections board. In an interview on Friday, Nuriddin acknowledged that Adams “brought that particular concern” to her and was “instrumental” in bringing that rule and several others to the board.

In Nuriddin’s packet of paperwork asking for consideration of the rule, a cover letter said that the “Election Research Institute respectfully submits this petition for adoption.”

The Election Research Institute is led by Heather Honey, a conservative activist who also played a role in attempts to discredit the 2020 election results and has worked to advance election system overhauls supported by Mitchell, the head of the Election Integrity Network. Another organization Honey co-founded, Verity Vote, is listed as working on “joint projects and events” with the Election Integrity Network in its handbook. Mitchell has praised Honey as a “wonderful person” on her podcast.

Honey told ProPublica that her institute did not submit the proposed rule. “The Election Research Institute, like many, you know, nonprofits out there, have folks that have expertise in elections,” Honey said in a brief interview. “And so it is not uncommon for folks to seek our advice.” When asked about the language identifying the institute as submitting it, she said she would only answer further questions over email and then hung up. Honey did not respond to an emailed list of detailed questions.

Mitchell did not respond to requests for comment or a detailed list of questions.

Neither did Adams. In comments supporting the rule during a public meeting, Adams did not disclose her role originating it but explained that “it’s very hard to certify when you’re not following the law in knowing who voted, where they voted and how many ballots were cast.” She said that the purpose of the rule was to catch “problems beforehand” and that its goal was not “about throwing out precincts.”

Nuriddin eventually withdrew her submission. She would not say why.

An almost identical submission was provided to the board at about the same time by Bridget Thorne, a Fulton County commissioner and election denier. The primary difference was that Thorne’s version did not mention the Election Research Institute and said she was submitting it herself.

Thorne’s proposal was considered by the election board in its May meeting. “My hope is to reel in the blatant Fulton County not running their elections correctly,” Thorne told the board. She acknowledged that she had worked with Nuriddin on the rule, and that Nuriddin had withdrawn her name because “she wanted some tweaking of the language, last minute.”

In an interview, Thorne said she was encouraged to submit the rule by Honey, Adams and others.

She said that she did not know where all of the language in it came from because she had consulted with many lawyers and election experts while putting it together, but that some of it had come from herself and Honey. She said that Adams was not a writer but an organizer of the rule.

Thorne denied the rule was meant to be able to affect the outcome of the election. “The whole rule is to safeguard everybody’s vote,” she said, and to make sure that “nobody’s vote gets watered down by inadvertently double-scanning ballots.”

In a 45-minute discussion of the rule, a Republican member of the State Election Board warned that it ran “counter to both the federal and the state law” because it suggested counties could ignore the existing legal deadlines. The Republican chair of the board said that “this rule needs a little bit more work on it to make sure that it fully follows the statute” and that it was “not yet ready for prime time.” The board’s only Democratic member emphasized that it “is a criminal act to refuse to certify valid votes.”

Speaking alongside other conservative elections officials supportive of Thorne, Adams said that if an investigation was able to “find out why the numbers were wrong, a county might be late in certifying but they’d be a whole lot closer in returning accurate results.”

The five-person board, which has four Republicans on it, voted the proposal down unanimously, while offering to have two members work with supporters to refine the rule for future consideration.

That wasn’t the end of the proposal. In a matter of days, the Republican House speaker made a new appointment to the State Election Board, replacing a Republican lawyer who practices election law and who had said the rule was illegal and voted against it. In his place, the speaker appointed Janelle King. King is a conservative podcaster and panelist on a Georgia politics TV show, co-chairs a conservative political action committee, has no experience administering elections and has questioned the results of the 2020 election.

In June, a conservative activist resubmitted the rule with only minor updates, retaining a misspelling in its most important sentence.

In early August, during a rally in Atlanta, Trump praised by name the three members of the board’s new majority who are aligned with him, calling them “pit bulls fighting for honesty, transparency and victory” and saying they were “doing a great job.”

Days later, the State Election Board adopted a rule by a 3-2 vote that allowed for county board members to delay certification of election results to conduct a “reasonable inquiry” into them. The Republican chair sided with the lone Democratic appointee in opposition. Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger harshly criticized that rule in a statement that called it “new activist rulemaking.”

“Quick reporting of results and certification is paramount to voter confidence,” Raffensperger said. “Misguided attempts by the State Election Board will delay election results and undermine chain of custody safeguards. Georgia voters reject this 11th hour chaos, and so should the unelected members of the State Election Board.”

ProPublica interviewed six election experts about the potential impact of the rule that is scheduled to be considered by the election board on Monday. Five said it seemed more likely to affect urban Democratic counties than rural Republican ones because the former are more populated and have more ballots and voters.

“The statistical probability of a discrepancy is more likely to occur in counties with many voters,” said Paul Gronke, a professor at Reed College and the director of the Elections and Voting Information Center. “What’s unusual” about the proposed rule “is saying that any discrepancy is enough to refuse to certify a whole precinct’s worth of votes,” without considering the magnitude of the discrepancy or the votes it might disenfranchise.

The six experts listed off numerous scenarios in which small discrepancies that do not impact the outcome of the election regularly occur, including: ballots getting stuck in scanners and overlooked, citizens checking in to vote and then discontinuing the process before finalizing their vote, memory sticks failing to upload, election systems being slow to update that a provisional ballot has been corrected and so on.

According to the experts, election laws across America do not allow minor discrepancies to halt the certification process because legally mandated deadlines are tight. There are later opportunities to resolve the discrepancies, such as mandatory audits, investigations and litigation.

“There’s a process for investigating problems” with vote tallies in the courts, “and so if a candidate feels there’s something wrongly done, they can go to the courts,” said Gowri Ramachandran the director of elections and security in the Brennan Center’s Elections & Government program.

If the proposed rule were used to delay certification, the battle would shift to the courts, according to the experts. Georgia law is explicit that certification is mandatory and that attempts by county board members not to certify votes would prompt interested parties to seek a writ of mandamus, a type of court order forcing government officials to properly fulfill their official duties. This prescribed remedy goes all the way back to an 1899 decision by the state Supreme Court, arising from a situation in which a county board was overruled when it tried to refuse to certify a precinct to give victory to their preferred candidates.

What would happen after that is less clear. Numerous outside groups would likely attempt to join the litigation, including the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee. On appeal, cases could end up at Georgia’s Supreme Court. Or they could get moved to federal court. The closest precedent is the recount of the 2000 election in Florida, which only ended after the U.S. Supreme Court stopped the count and awarded the presidency to Republican George W. Bush by a 5-4 vote.

“The 100% definitive answer is that no one knows how such a crisis would play out,” said Marisa Pyle, the senior democracy defense manager for Georgia with All Voting is Local Action, a voting rights advocacy organization. “No one wants to find out.”

A Great Source of Campaign News

I wanted to tell you about a new election news site which is actually a very old one. You’re likely familiar with Daily Kos Elections. If you’re not, it’s long been a section of the Daily Kos website which specializes in downballot races. In other words, all the races besides presidential races. They don’t totally ignore presidential contests, of course. But their bread and butter is everything else. That means congressional races, especially ones operating below the radar. They’re even more priceless on everything below the level of federal elections: state legislatives contests, state secretaries of state, state Supreme Court elections, district attorneys, etc. As we’ve learned over the last decade, those offices are the true taproots and ballast of political power in the United States. Presidents are the great lumbering apex predator of the political ecosystem who exist and survive only because of all the lesser known parts of that ecosystem.

Over a couple decades, DKE became an irreplaceable source of information for all the nitty-gritty of electoral life in American politics. Perhaps the greatest tribute to the quality of their work is that their following was bipartisan. If the information is solid and you can’t find it anywhere else, everyone wants to have it, regardless of who they want to win the election. This has always been my standard in the world of independent and engaged media: have your reporting be good enough, clear enough and sufficiently free of cant that it becomes a must-read even for those who don’t share your political viewpoint. That’s their calling card. They’re really that good. It’s an ironic day to make this recommendation since we begin today the quadrennial four-day festival of worship in the cult of presidenting. But I’m telling you this because DKE is now hiving off from Daily Kos and relaunching as a independent website called TheDownballot. They actually launched at the end of last week. I can’t recommend their work strongly enough. It’s where you go to get the details, to find out which races are really going to matter, and to find leads on where change is happening, where you go to see the cacophony of data kicked up by political life corralled into usable datasets. It’s also the kind of work worth supporting with your dollars, sort of like the coral reefs of nitty gritty political knowledge, if you will.

So that’s my pitch. Needless to say, I’m not involved financially or otherwise with TheDownballot. My only relationship is as a consumer of their work over many years. Check them out.

From the Josh Archives: Bittersweet Nothing, originally published 4.19.1999

One of the things that happens in the world of digital media is that your published writings are always at your fingertips and can vanish in an instant. Some publications go under entirely and their back catalog disappears. Today I was discussing a new Maureen Dowd column about the “coup,” as she put it, against Joe Biden (good lord…) and I was reminded that the first piece of journalism I ever published in an actual publication was about Dowd. I tried to find it and realized it was no longer online. But I didn’t want to leave it there, so I went back to my email archive, found the emails with the person who edited it and got the original URL. With the original URL I was able to track it down on the WayBack Machine. My memory was a bit off. But I was close. It wasn’t the first piece I published. That was two years earlier. I conflated the two because they were both published in the same publication, Feed Magazine, one of the great now-departed publications from the first wave of Internet journalism.

I was excited to find it. It was a piece I was kind of proud of because I was still very early in my journalism career and I was able to hit a number of themes that were important to me. Reading it again I realize that a number of those are ones that have been constants through my writing at TPM. I realized that since I own the copyright and the publication was defunct (for at least 20 years) I should simply republish it here at TPM so it’s resurrected digitally and I can refer back to it whenever needed.

It was published on April 19th, 1999, on the occasion of Dowd receiving a Pulitzer for her commentary on the Lewinsky scandal. The original, as published 25 years ago, you can find after the jump.

Continue reading “From the Josh Archives: Bittersweet Nothing, originally published 4.19.1999”  

You Should Know

I flagged this on social media, but I wanted to make sure you knew. Trump just announced a “crime and safety” rally for next Tuesday in Howell, Michigan, a town that has for decades been heavily associated with the KKK. Indeed, just late last month, white supremacists marched in the town chanting, “We love Hitler. We love Trump.” Some but not all of the town’s reputation comes from the fact that a long-time Grand Drago of the Michigan Klan lived there and his farm was a sort of home base for the Klan. (I just found out this afternoon that a good bit of the 1991 documentary Blood in the Face — great doc, by the way — was shot there.)

This is the kind of move that will be lost on many reporters and especially most out-of-state reporters. But it won’t be lost for a moment on Blacks and Jews from Michigan. It’s a bullhorn, not a dog whistle. I had to have the connection pointed out to me too though, once I did, the connection with the Blood in the Face documentary which I saw when it first came out placed it for me.

When Is ‘Recyclable’ Not Really Recyclable? When the Plastics Industry Gets to Define What the Word Means.

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

Is there anything more pathetic than a used plastic bag?

They rip and tear. They float away in the slightest breeze. Left in the wild, their mangled remains entangle birds and choke sea turtles that mistake them for edible jellyfish. It takes 1,000 years for the bags to disintegrate, shedding hormone-disrupting chemicals as they do. And that outcome is all but inevitable, because no system exists to routinely recycle them. It’s no wonder some states have banned them and stores give discounts to customers with reusable bags.

But the plastics industry is working to make the public feel OK about using them again.

Companies whose futures depend on plastic production, including oil and gas giant ExxonMobil, are trying to persuade the federal government to allow them to put the label “recyclable” on bags and other plastic items virtually guaranteed to end up in landfills and incinerators.

They argue that “recyclable” should apply to anything that’s capable of being recycled. And they point to newer technologies that have been able to remake plastic bags into new products.

I spent months investigating one of those technologies, a form of chemical recycling called pyrolysis, only to find that it is largely a mirage. It’s inefficient, dirty and so limited in capacity that no one expects it to process meaningful amounts of plastic waste any time soon.

That shouldn’t matter, say proponents of the industry’s argument. If it’s physically capable of being recycled — even in extremely limited scenarios — it should be labeled “recyclable.”

They are laying out their case in comments to the Federal Trade Commission as it revises its Green Guides, documents that define how companies can use marketing labels like “recyclable” or “compostable.” The guides are meant to curb greenwashing — deceptive advertising that exaggerates the sustainability of products. They were last updated in 2012, before the explosion of social media advertising and green influencers; the agency declined to answer questions about the revision or give an idea of when it will be done.

The push for a looser definition of “recyclable” highlights a conundrum faced not just by companies represented by the Plastics Industry Association, but by members of the Consumer Brands Association, whose plastic-packaged products fill grocery shelves across the world. (Neither trade group, nor ExxonMobil, wanted to elaborate on their positions advocating for a more liberal use of the word “recyclable.”)

Under increasing pressure to reckon with the global plastics crisis, companies want to rely on recycling as the answer. But turning old plastic into new plastic is really, really hard.

Products made with dyes, flame retardants and other toxic chemicals create a health hazard when they’re heated for recycling. That severely limits the types of products you can make from recycled plastic. And most items are too small for companies in the recycling business to bother sorting and processing, or they are assembled in a way that would make it far more costly to strip them down to their useful elements than to just make new plastic. Plastic forks? Straws? Toys given out in fast food meals and party favor bags? Never actually recycled. In fact, only 5% of Americans’ plastic finds new life.

Environmental experts worry that if the FTC sides with the industry, companies could slap the “recyclable” label on virtually anything.

Though the agency only pursues a few greenwashing cases a year, its guides — which are guidelines instead of laws — are the only national benchmark for evaluating recycling claims.

They’re used by companies that want to market their products in an honest way. They also serve as a reference for state officials who are drafting laws to try to reduce plastic waste.

By 2032, for example, most single-use packaging sold in California will need to be recyclable or compostable.

What good will such laws be, environmental experts worry, if those words mean nothing?

For at least three decades, the industry has misled the public about what really is recyclable.

Take a close look at any plastic product and you’ll likely see a little number stamped on it called a resin identification code; it distinguishes what kind of plastic it’s made of. Plastic bags, for example, are labeled No. 4. Only some No. 1 and No. 2 plastics are widely recyclable. In each case, the number is surrounded by the iconic “chasing arrows” symbol, which has come to denote recyclability, regardless of whether that product can actually be recycled.

The design was created in the 1980s by a group of chemical companies working with Exxon and BP; Grist recently published a fascinating story about the effort.

Around that time, the plastic industry was contending with the nation’s growing awareness that its products were the root of an intractable pollution problem. States were weighing legislation to deal with it. And the American Plastics Council was convening meetings to head off threats. The council discussed the arrows, which they described as “consumer tested,” according to meeting notes obtained by the Center for Climate Integrity, an advocacy group that works to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable.

The industry persuaded 39 states to require the use of the symbols. Their purpose, the notes said: “to prevent bans.” They pursued the strategy despite warnings from state regulators who predicted the arrows would lead consumers to overestimate the recyclability of plastic packaging.

By 1995, state attorneys general were telling the FTC that’s exactly what was happening.

The agency ruled in 1998 that brands could continue using the codes with the recycling symbol, but could only display them prominently — by printing them next to the brand name, for example — if the product was recyclable for a “substantial majority” of consumers. If not, the symbols could be stamped in a less obvious place, like the bottom of containers.

These mandates did little to ease consumers’ confusion. “You mean we’re not supposed to throw plastic bags in recycling bins?” a colleague recently asked me.

During a tour of the New York facility that sorts the city’s recyclables, I saw the result of a million well-intentioned mistakes — countless bags sloshing over conveyor belts like the unwanted dregs at the bottom of a cereal bowl.

They’re notorious for clogging equipment. Sometimes, they start fires. And when they get stuck between layers of paper, the bags end up contaminating bales of paper that are actually recyclable, condemning much of it to the landfill.

If companies started printing the word “recyclable” on them, I wondered, how much worse could this get?

When you see something labeled as “recyclable,” it’s reasonable to expect it will be made into something new after you toss it in the nearest recycling bin.

You would be wrong.

The current Green Guides allow companies to make blanket “recyclable” claims if 60% of consumers or communities have access to recycling facilities that will take the product. The guides don’t specify whether facilities can just accept the item, or if there needs to be a reasonable assurance that the item will be made into a new product.

When the agency invited the public to comment in late 2022 on how the guides should be revised, FTC Chair Lina M. Khan predicted that one of the main issues would be “whether claims that a product is recyclable should reflect where a product ultimately ends up, not just whether it gets picked up from the curb.”

Strangely, that statement ignored the agency’s own guidance. An FTC supplement to the 2012 Green Guides stated that “recyclable” items must go to facilities “that will actually recycle” them, “not accept and ultimately discard” them.

The industry disagrees with the position.

“Recent case law confirms that the term ‘recyclable’ means ‘capable of being recycled,’ and that it is an attribute, not a guarantee,” said a comment from the Plastics Industry Association. Forcing the material to be “actually recovered” is “unnecessarily burdensome.”

Citing a consumer survey, ExxonMobil told the FTC that the majority of respondents “agreed that it was appropriate to label an item as recyclable if a product can be recycled, even if access to recycling facilities across the country varies.” The company’s comments argued against “arbitrary minimum” thresholds like the 60% rule.

The FTC also received comments urging the agency to tighten the rules. A letter from the attorneys general of 15 states and the District of Columbia suggested increasing the 60% minimum to 90%. And the Environmental Protection Agency told the FTC that “recyclable” is only valid if the facilities that collect those products can reliably make more money by selling them for recycling than by throwing them away in a landfill.

The industry argues that recycling is never guaranteed. Market changes like the pandemic could force facilities to discard material that is technically recyclable, wrote the Consumer Brands Association. There is “simply no consumer deception in a claim that clearly identifies that a product is capable of being recycled,” the group wrote, despite the fact that “an external factor several times removed from the manufacturer results in it ultimately not being recycled.”

And what if consumers stopped seeing as many products marketed as recyclable? That could “dramatically” lower recycling rates, the group wrote, because consumers would get confused, seeming to imply people wouldn’t know if they could recycle anything at all.

“Wow, that’s some weird acrobatics,” Lynn Hoffman, strategic adviser at the Alliance for Mission-Based Recycling, said of the industry’s uncertainty argument. The group is a network of nonprofit recyclers that supports a zero-waste future.

Hoffman acknowledged the inefficiencies in the system. The solution, she said, is to improve the true recyclability of products that can be reliably processed, like soda bottles, by tracking them as they pass through the supply chain, being transparent about where they end up and removing toxic chemicals from products.

Calling everything “recyclable” would be a huge mistake, she said. “We have to be realistic about the role that recycling plays,” she added.

No matter how well done, it doesn’t fix the bigger crisis. Not the microplastics infiltrating our bodies or “plastic smog” in the oceans or poisoned families living in the shadow of the chemical plants that produce it.

In fact, research has shown people can produce more waste when they think it will be recycled. When North Carolina began rolling out curbside recycling in different towns, researchers analyzed data on household waste before and after the change. They found that overall waste — the total amount of trash plus stuff in the recycling bin — rose by up to 10% after recycling became available, possibly because consumers felt less guilty.

“They get their blue bins, and they worry less about the amount of trash they generate,” said one of the researchers, Roland Geyer, a professor of industrial ecology at the University of California-Santa Barbara. “I’m probably guilty of that too.”

Kamala Harris’ Sudden Political Rise Echoes That Of Another Politician, New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

Kamala Harris’ quick, unexpected transformation from a low-profile vice president to the headline-dominating Democratic presidential nominee has upended the 2024 election in just a few short weeks.

Across the Pacific Ocean, Harris’ story may resonate with New Zealanders, like myself, who see parallels with Jacinda Ardern, a young, politically astute liberal, and her sudden rise to her party’s leadership in 2017. Ardern’s swift ascension disrupted the foregone conclusion that her political party was headed for a decisive defeat in an upcoming election.

Since President Joe Biden announced on July 21, 2024, that he would not run for reelection, Harris closed the gap in at least one major poll between Biden and Republican contender Donald Trump. Harris also brought in a surge of donations and volunteer sign-ups, won support from 99% of Democratic National Committee delegates and has been lauded for injecting joy into the campaign and for giving Democratic voters hope.

Ardern, similarly, became the leader of her party and a prime minister contender after New Zealand’s Labour Party leader Andrew Little, 52, saw no pathway to victory and stepped aside just seven weeks before the September 2017 election.

Ardern’s 11th-hour promotion gave the campaign a jolt of energy and infused it with what Ardern called “relentless positivity.” Ardern quickly unified her party and ultimately, when the votes were counted and a coalition formed, landed the top job as prime minister.

Ardern’s whirlwind campaign and tenure also shows some pitfalls other women leaders, like Harris, might face, including being compelled to appear as competent and likable while fending off hateful attacks.

A woman stands and poses with a man, surrounded by many people in a crowd.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is photographed with supporters at a campaign rally in Glendale, Ariz., on Aug. 9, 2024. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

No pathway ahead

In the first few months of 2017, it seemed like the center-right National Party in New Zealand would win reelection after nine years leading the government.

After months of dismal poll results, Little, the Labour Party leader, believed his party would lose the election.

Little also trailed his deputy leader, Ardern, in preferred prime minister polls – despite Ardern’s repeated declarations that she did not want to be prime minister.

Little resigned on July 31, 2017. Within hours, Labour politicians unanimously nominated Ardern as their replacement leader.

Ardern, then 37, accepted the nomination. She promised that she and her team would be “positive, organized and ready.” She gave herself three days to overhaul the campaign.

A campaign of unity

By connecting with voters and focusing on positivity, Ardern’s short campaign united a party known for fractious infighting.

What followed might seem familiar to many people closely following American politics today. Ardern kicked off her campaign with a photo of her smiling, captioned: “Let’s Do This.” She held lively campaign rallies across the country. And the public responded.

As a culture, we New Zealanders often avoid exuberance. So, the phenomenon of “Jacindamania” was remarkable.

Crowds swarmed for selfies with Ardern. Ardern’s face was plastered on merchandise and showed up in political memes across social media.

Donations and volunteer sign-ups to the Labour Party surged. So, too, did donations to the opposing National Party, as Ardern had sparked a genuine competition.

A common message of joy

As a prime minister candidate, Ardern embraced and promoted her brand of “relentless positivity,” as she put it.

The opposition tried to depict her as inexperienced and superficial and then launched attack ads – milder than what U.S. voters expect to see in a political campaign, but a rarity in New Zealand politics.

The attacks did little to dispel Ardern’s stardust. If anything, the jabs stood in contrast to her positive messaging. Ardern’s Facebook Lives with supporters were consistently upbeat. Her interviews and press conferences combined charm with detailed policy knowledge.

It seems “relentless positivity” landed with New Zealanders on the strength of Ardern’s charisma. Her opponent, in his own words, “specialized in being boring.” A prominent journalist wrote of a “mood for change,” despite the economy being strong overall by most measures, a housing crisis notwithstanding.

Harris’ early polling gains against Trump suggest a similar story. The sexist and racist attacks against Harris appear to be largely falling flat, at least so far.

Instead, memes and clips of Harris dancing, laughing and speaking to large crowds of supporters have gone viral.

Harris, responding to Trump’s attacks, has dismissed him as “the same old show.”

Evolving gender politics

Gender stereotypes still play a role in voters’ perception of leaders. Both Democratic and Republican women politicians are perceived as more liberal than their male counterparts. Yet also, in a study of 35 countries – including New Zealand but not the U.S. – women-led parties are seen as “less extreme.”

Both Ardern and Harris are liberals with relatively moderate voting records. Trump’s attempts to cast Harris as a “radical left lunatic” do not square with her former prosecutor credentials and overtures to corporations.

Ardern’s advantage, meanwhile, was that she attracted both centrist voters and those further to the left. She did this by making kindness and positivity central features of her campaign, while also making controversial calls, such as coming out against tax reform, which frustrated some hoping for more progressive leadership.

Harris may also have opportunities to win both centrist voters and offer a better alternative to Trump.

A woman with dark hair stands at a podium, surrounded by microphones and people with cameras crouching down in front of her.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation in January 2023 in Napier, New Zealand. Kerry Marshall/Getty Images

Lessons for American voters

Should Harris succeed in her presidential bid, Ardern’s experience provides a note of caution.

Ardern was targeted by unprecedented degrees of violent hate speech, misogyny and death threats. These worsened throughout her leadership and peaked during an April 2022 violent occupation of Parliament by protesters who wanted to end the country’s COVID-19 restrictions.

By 2023, Ardern’s support had dropped, forecasting her party’s ouster from leadership.

Disinformation researcher Kate Hannah suggested that violent speech against Ardern may have contributed to her decision to resign in January 2023. At the time, Ardern said, “I know what this job takes, and I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice.”

Republicans’ attacks on Harris may, for now, be less effective with less time to embed themselves in voters’ minds. But attacks tend to accrue over time.

Ardern’s last-minute rise to leadership may give some Democrats an example to consider as they look to November. But Ardern’s story offers reasons for trepidation for those who hope for less malicious politics.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

JD Vance’s ‘Purpose’

Hello, it’s the weekend. This is The Weekender ☕

A clip made the rounds this week in which chief weirdo JD Vance said the “purpose” of post-menopausal women was to help raise children. This sort of thing falls outside the normal discourse. Many find it uncomfortable or unusual to talk about the ultimate purpose of wide swathes of society. What does it even mean when someone talks about someone else’s purpose? It smacks of Simon Birch.

Continue reading “JD Vance’s ‘Purpose’”  

Victims Told Plea Deal For George Santos In The Works, Could Come Next Week

Victims of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) have been told that he is expected to plead guilty in federal court on Monday after being charged with multiple counts of fraud related to his campaign operation. 

Continue reading “Victims Told Plea Deal For George Santos In The Works, Could Come Next Week”  

Kamala Harris Gives Sherrod Brown A Fighting Chance To Win

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is in the fight of his life.

The incumbent won back his seat in 2012 and 2018, the latter race during a year that was a bloodbath for his fellow Democratic senators in Republican-leaning states. Brown’s margins grew much tighter, with his 15-point 2012 rout halved six years later. And now, for the first time since 2012, he’s up in a presidential year, with Donald Trump — who easily won Ohio in 2016 and 2020 — at the top of the ballot.

Democrats simply can’t hold their Senate majority without Brown. The brutal map means that Republicans only need to flip West Virginia — a near-certainty, with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) bowing out — and not fumble their incumbencies in Florida and Texas to reach 50 seats. If they flip either Ohio or Montana, both states Trump won twice, they win the majority. Democrats are also defending in the perpetual battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, as well as fighting for open seats in Arizona and Michigan. 

Continue reading “Kamala Harris Gives Sherrod Brown A Fighting Chance To Win”