Iowa Republicans Ram Through Six-Week Abortion Ban In One-Day Special Session

Iowa Republicans, following Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) lead, passed a six-week abortion ban late Tuesday night after completing the entire legislative process in a one-day special session. 

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Global Temperature Rises In Steps—Here’s Why We Can Expect A Steep Climb This Year And Next

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

Global warming took off in the mid-1970s when the rise in global mean surface temperature exceeded natural variability. Every decade after the 1960s has been warmer than the one before and the 2010s were the warmest on record. But there can be a lot of variability from one year to the next.

Now, in 2023, all kinds of records are being broken. The highest daily temperatures ever recorded globally occurred in early July, alongside the largest sea surface temperature anomaly ever.

This graph shows daily estimates of global surface temperatures (top) and sea-surface temperatures (bottom). The 2023 values are dark and 2022 are orange.
Temperatures on land and the ocean surface are breaking records this year, as shown in these graphs of daily estimates of global surface temperatures (top) and sea-surface temperatures (bottom). Author provided, based on NOAA analyses, processed by University of Maine, CC BY-SA

June had its highest global mean surface temperature, according to preliminary analysis. The extent of Antarctica’s sea ice has been at a record low. Meanwhile, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to increase at rates that show no sign of slowing.

Evident consequences include torrential downpours in some parts of the world which contrast with excessive heatwaves and wildfires in other locations, notably recently in Canada.

But global mean surface temperature does not continue relentlessly upwards. The biggest increases, and warmest years, tend to happen in the latter stages of an El Niño event.

Human-induced climate change is relentless and largely predictable. But at any time, and especially locally, it can be masked by weather events and natural variability on interannual (El Niño) or decadal time scales.

The combination of decadal variability and the warming trend from rising greenhouse gas emissions makes the temperature record look more like a rising staircase, rather than a steady climb.

This graph shows global mean surface temperatures, annual departures from 20th-century averages, with pre-industrial values indicated by a dashed line. Green lines depict approximate regimes stepping to higher and higher values, with an expected upward step at the end.
Rather than rising steadily, global temperatures climb in steps, usually at the end of an El Niño event. Author provided, based on NOAA data, CC BY-SA

Sources of variability

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to climb relentlessly upwards despite the Paris Agreement and the many countries and organizations (cities, companies) that have made good on their commitments to cut emissions.

Unfortunately for the planet, some nations, including China and India, have continued to burn coal and install coal-fired power stations whose emissions more than offset gains elsewhere.

But the rise in temperature follows a step-like progression. The warmest year in the 20th century was 1998, following the 1997-98 major El Niño. Then the warming paused and the so-called “hiatus” in global warming from 2001 to 2014 led climate change deniers to become vociferous in proclaiming global warming was a myth.

The major El Niño event in 2015-16 changed that. 2015 became the warmest year on record, ending the hiatus, only to be surpassed by 2016, which remains the warmest calendar year so far in many records.

A lot of year-to-year variability is associated with El Niño events. But it is more than that. Further analysis reveals that the Pacific decadal variability, sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, resulted in changes in the amount of heat sequestered at various ocean depths.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation may be thought of as a northern-hemisphere version of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation.

With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, there were major changes in Pacific trade winds, sea-level pressure, sea level, rainfall and storm locations throughout the Pacific and Pacific-rim countries. These changes extended into the southern oceans and across the Arctic into the Atlantic.

The effects are greatest in winter in each hemisphere. There is good but incomplete evidence that changes in winds alter ocean currents, ocean convection and overturning, resulting in changes in the amount of heat sequestered deep in the ocean during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Accordingly, during the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, more heat is deposited in the upper 300m of the ocean, where it can influence global temperatures. During the negative phase, more heat is dumped below 300m, contributing to the overall warming of the oceans but lost to the surface.

During El Niño, heat stored at depth in the western tropical Pacific is moved around and returns to the atmosphere, providing a mini global warming.

Temperatures rising

Research shows that ocean heat content increases more steadily than surface air warming and is a better metric to show that global warming continues.

Sea-level rise comes from both the expansion of the ocean as it warms and the melting of land-based ice (glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica). This puts more water into the oceans. Fluctuations occur as rainfall is partitioned differently between land and the ocean, with more rain on land during La Niña events.

The ocean covers 70% of the Earth. Because most of it is in the southern hemisphere, which experiences winter in June to August, the highest values for sea-surface temperatures occur in March, at the end of southern summer. But as land temperature variations are much larger, the highest global mean surface temperatures occur about July.

With a new El Niño emerging and prospects that it could be another major event, are we about to experience the next step up the stairs? Already in 2023, sea-surface temperatures emerged in April as the highest on record and values are running 0.2℃ above previous highs.

This set the stage for June to have record high surface air temperatures globally. In early July, they hit the highest values on record.

We can expect 2023 to emerge as the warmest year to date. But sea-surface temperatures during El Niño events tend to peak about December and have the greatest influences in the subsequent two months. That sets the stage for 2024 jumping up the staircase to the next level, perhaps to 1.4℃ above pre-industrial levels, with likely daily incursions over 1.5℃.

Once the next La Niña event comes along, there’ll again be a pause in the rise, but values will never quite go back to previous levels.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

What House GOP Insanity? It’s Just Another Wednesday

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

Your Periodic Check-In On the House GOP

I could lard up Morning Memo every day with the latest antics from the House GOP. Their hijinks are never-ending, the damage to civic life ongoing, and the threat to the rule of law is real and present. But to over-focus on their stunts, conspiracy-mongering, and manufactured indignation day in and day out is to be led around by the nose. And yet … so many outlets cede their news judgment to the crazies.

It doesn’t take that much self-awareness to avoid allowing House Republicans to take advantage of journalistic conventions. It’s possible to cover them without being used by them. You can frame it up in your own way, and not become dependent on their framing.

And it should be said that from time to time it is worth it to pull back and behold the entire spectacle as a way of seeing it for what it is.

Just this week, we’ve had:

On the Senate side, meanwhile, you have Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) – unable to denounce white nationalism in the military – single-handedly holding up all senior level promotions at the Pentagon.

And I haven’t even gotten to the good stuff yet.

Another House GOP Stunt Blows Up In Their Faces

Nothing quite captures the current state of the GOP like the story of the “missing” witness in the House GOP’s effort to drum up a Biden scandal who turned out to be under federal indictment all along and on the lam.

Nincompoop Headline Of The Day

“WSJ: “Indictment of Gal Luft, Called Key Witness by GOP, Clouds Biden Probe”

“Clouds Biden Probe” is for the ages. Well done, WSJ.

Prepare Yourself For Another Media Fail

FBI Director Chris Wray is set to testify today to the House Judiciary Committee in what we think of as a “routine” oversight hearing. But the historic trend toward circus hearings has only accelerated under committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH), meaning this will mainly be an opportunity for GOP committee members to air conspiracy theories, political attacks, personal smears, and other damaging nonsense. They do this because it still receives the kind of media coverage that amplifies and extends the disinformation even outside of the right-wing media echo chamber.

Georgia Case Against Trump Gets Rolling Again

Anna Bower has a dispatch from yesterday’s empaneling of a new state grand jury in Atlanta that DA Fani Willis is expected to use to indict former President Donald Trump and others before the end of the summer.

Rudy G Is One Hot Mess

Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss who are suing Rudy Giuliani for smearing them as being part of a made-up election theft scheme are now asking the court to sanction him for consistently and persistently failing to turn over evidence in the case. They are seeking a default judgment against Giuliani.

How’s Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 Probe Coming?

To its credit, CNN has the resources to commit people to monitor the comings and goings at the federal courthouse in DC for signs of who is testifying in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 probe. Here’s the result of that labor. Keep in mind, however, that this can’t be a comprehensive list of witnesses or subjects of the probe. It’s only who CNN has managed to spot at the courthouse.

Big Win For E. Jean Carroll

In a significant shift, the Justice Department said Tuesday that it will no longer defend former President Donald Trump against E. Jean Carroll’s initial defamation suit. DOJ cited changes in the law, new facts, and the jury verdict in Carroll’s favor in her other lawsuit against Trump as deciding factors in changing its legal position in the case. Trial is scheduled for January 2024.

To be clear, this was largely a self-own by Trump, who continued to make disparaging comments about Carroll after his presidency, undermining his argument that he had qualified immunity against her claims.

Iowa Poised To Enact New Abortion Ban

In an extraordinary one-day special session devoted to abortion, the Iowa legislature passed a new six-week abortion ban. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who called the session, is expected to sign the bill later this week.

SCOTUS Launching A Preemptive Strike?

Is the Supreme Court already gunning for a wealth tax that doesn’t even exist yet? TPM’s Josh Kovensky on the high court’s curious decision to accept an obscure tax case.

Why SCOTUS Needs Ethics Rules

The latest report on questionable ethical behavior by a Supreme Court justice – in this case Sonia Sotomayor – simply reinforces why an independent objective standard of conduct is needed. The justices – and journalists and the public – shouldn’t be in the position of having to decide on a case-by-case basis what is and is not okay.

Thanks For All The Feedback!

I appreciated all the emails in response to my request in yesterday’s Morning Memo. I know it takes time and effort to write in. Many thanks!

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Where Things Stand: GOPers Keep Trying To Embrace The Thing They Literally Just Hated

Republicans are continuing to backtrack on years of conspiracy-theory precedent after last year’s midterms taught them that demonizing certain popular types of voting for the sake of Donald Trump’s grievances might not be the best way to win friends and influence people.

The latest MAGA fan and one-time Big Liar to embrace the Republican National Committee’s early-voting about-face initiative: Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

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The Wild Story Of Gal Luft, James Comer’s ‘Missing,’ Now-Indicted Hunter Biden Witness

We now know more about why a key witness in the House GOP’s sordid tale of an investigation has supposedly gone “missing.” He was on the lam after having been indicted way back in November — even before Republicans won the House majority — for allegedly acting as an unregistered Chinese agent and arms trafficker to the Middle East and Africa.

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A Credibility Groundhog Day

It’s certainly true that mainstream media organizations have published stories on the sometimes clownish work of House Republican investigators. But even this doesn’t detract from the fact that new accusations from the same folks are routinely presented to the public as credible, serious, even damning news. I was considering this this afternoon and it’s hard to think of any other part of life, personal or professional, in which someone’s claims are so consistently shown not only to be inaccurate but comically cynical and dishonest and yet continue to be treated with great seriousness and respect. It’s a sort of credibility Groundhog Day, in the sense of the movie. Just the same damn thing from scratch every time.

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White House Gives Special Recognition To Republicans Touting Infrastructure Fixes From Bill They Voted Against

The White House is continuing its campaign of sarcastic gratitude Tuesday, doling out recognition to specific Republican lawmakers who touted infrastructure investments “spurred by legislation they voted to block.” 

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Senate Democrats Call Out Kacsmaryk, O’Connor In Missive Against Judge Shopping

Led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), a group of Senate Democrats railed against right-wing judge shopping and asked for remedies in a Monday-dated letter to the head of the civil rules committee of the Judicial Conference. 

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Michigan Still Allows Emergency Takeovers of Local Governments. Is It Finally Time To Reconsider This Drastic Measure?

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

In Detroit, the past was all too present. Houses, businesses and schools that once supported nearly 2 million people sat vacant. Old debts forced city leaders into impossible choices. There was not enough money for public safety, not enough for streetlights, not enough for parks, not enough for education — not enough, period.

In March 2013, an attorney named Kevyn Orr was appointed to take charge. He’d never received a vote and had never been vetted by the mayor or City Council. And yet, he assumed all the power that otherwise would be held by the mayor and council, as well as additional powers, such as the ability to unilaterally sell city assets. While local officials could attempt to veto certain decisions, the veto itself was subject to state approval.

Four months later, with the governor’s signoff, Orr led Detroit into the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. Orr had this authority because of Michigan’s expansive system for intervening in distressed cities and schools. His appointment by state officials as Detroit’s emergency manager intensified a debate about power and democracy that continues to this day.

In Michigan, the state has an unusual amount of discretion in initiating oversight, and its emergency managers have an unusual amount of authority, according to researchers. Compared with those of other states, Michigan’s takeover powers have also been among the most widely used. Since 2000, under various versions of the law, 10 Michigan municipalities have come under the control of at least one emergency manager. So did several public school districts, including Detroit’s.

The results were mixed and showed a clear trend, some studies found, toward intervening in majority-Black towns. One recent study found that the race and economic status of residents and the city’s reliance on state revenue were better predictors of a municipal takeover than financial distress indicators.

By 2017, 56% of Michigan’s Black residents had lived in cities governed by emergency managers or other state oversight measures, according to a widely cited lawsuit filed in federal court by a coalition of community leaders against Michigan’s governor and treasurer. Just under 3% of white people had the same experience, the complaint said. (The suit, which sought to overturn the law based on equal protection and voting rights, was later dismissed.)

Research by sociologist Louise Seamster contends that while Michigan’s emergency management law is ostensibly neutral, it “provides the logic to blame Black governance for structural disinvestment and White-led extraction.”

Early versions of Michigan’s emergency management law were more narrowly tailored, but in 2011, soon after Gov. Rick Snyder took office, lawmakers significantly expanded it. In a 2012 referendum, voters across the state rejected the expanded law. But four weeks later, legislators passed a bill that largely mirrored the earlier proposal and included an appropriation that made it immune from future referendums.

The first city to get a new emergency manager with expanded powers was Flint. Over three and a half years, four managers presided over a cataclysmic time in city history. After switching the water source, failing to treat the water properly and not sufficiently intervening as infrastructure corroded and health risks worsened, the city endured a crisis of extraordinary proportions.

Snyder, a Republican who was in office through 2018, has acknowledged that emergency management failed Flint. But he has also pointed to Detroit as evidence that the system worked, with the city on far more stable ground today than it was 10 years ago. (Snyder could not be reached for comment.) Proponents of the law have argued that an outside official is more free to make difficult but necessary decisions.

Others see Detroit’s experience with emergency management as atypical or even flawed. And some of the critics are now in power. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, for example, advocated for repealing it in her 2018 campaign, and her press secretary said Whitmer will “work closely with the legislature if they take up legislation reforming the state’s emergency manager law.”

But there are few signs that will happen anytime soon.

Eric Scorsone, an associate professor and director of Michigan State University’s Extension Center for Local Government Finance and Policy, is among those who see flaws in the way the state has handled emergency management. A specialist in local government public finance, he’s worked at state agencies in Michigan and Colorado and as an adviser in Flint and Detroit.

Early on, Scorsone said, he didn’t like the expanded version of emergency management law but thought it might be necessary. “I’ve definitely changed my views,” he said. In a March presentation to the Michigan Senate’s general government subcommittee, Scorsone outlined alternative ways for the state to approach struggling cities and schools — including reforms to keep them from struggling in the first place. There was, he said on one slide, “no need to remove local democracy.”

In a conversation with ProPublica, Scorsone described three critical lessons from Michigan’s experience with emergency management.

FLINT, MI – JANUARY 27: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder speaks to the media regarding the status of the Flint water crisis on January 27, 2016 at Flint City Hall in Flint, Michigan. A federal state of emergency has been declared in Flint related to the city’s water becoming contaminated. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

1. Detroit Is Different

After 20 months as Detroit’s emergency manager, Orr resigned. Through bankruptcy, the city shed $7 billion in debt and restructured an additional $3 billion, creating more flexibility for investment in public services.

“A lot of people say, ‘Well, the Detroit bankruptcy is the big success story of the Snyder version of the law,’” Scorsone said. And Orr, he said, is “very good at what he does” and “very successful at navigating this complex legal environment.”

But Detroit’s story is unusual, Scorsone said. And whatever positive developments have unfolded in the city over the past decade, it’s not clear they can be solely attributed to emergency management.

Most notably: There were benefits in bankruptcy. While emergency management has been pitched by proponents as a way for communities to avoid bankruptcy, and the destroyed credit that comes with it, in Detroit, emergency management was actually a precursor to the Chapter 9 process. It is the only community that was put through bankruptcy by an emergency manager. The most significant changes in Detroit between then and now, Scorsone said, can be traced to what happened in bankruptcy court, where the city untangled itself from obligations to more than 100,000 creditors.

“You could argue that Kevyn having the powers he did was important to getting it done the way it was, and that may be true,” Scorsone said. (Orr didn’t respond to messages requesting comment.)

But he also noted that emergency managers make enormously consequential decisions “without open meetings, without freedom of information … they didn’t have to release records.” Not only does the public not have a role in decision-making, but the process can be kept secret from them.

“I’m not convinced that a lot of what the EM does, like taking away transparency and really the elimination of collective decision-making — I mean, I guess I’m not convinced the cost is really worth it,” Scorsone said.

The bankruptcy ended with a much-touted “Grand Bargain,” an $816 million deal involving philanthropic and public donations that limited how deeply pensions were cut and spared artwork in the Detroit Institute of Arts from a forced sale. But this bargain, Scorsone pointed out, could have been made without bankruptcy — “that’s just negotiation.”

And the attorney general could have gone to the court and fought for pension rights, he said, which are guaranteed in the state constitution. The bankruptcy cut pensions for many retirees by 4.5% and eliminated cost-of-living increases. Retired police officers and firefighters were spared immediate cuts, but their 2.25% cost-of-living increases were reduced to 1%. Meanwhile, Scorsone noted, many creditors “ended up getting real estate and other stuff to get bought off.”

“Who really did make out in this bankruptcy?” he asked.

Cases of water sit in Cleophus Mooneys garage at his home in Flint, Michigan, October 22,2020.(Photo by SETH HERALD/AFP via Getty Images)

2. The Specter of Flint

As a fiscal adviser in Flint from 2019 to 2022, and in his continuing work with its City Hall, Scorsone said he’s reviewed what emergency managers did, “and it’s not a pretty picture, quite frankly.”

Both Detroit and Flint were led by emergency managers in 2013 and 2014, both overseen by Michigan’s Department of Treasury. Despite the state’s uniquely influential role in both communities, a late effort to negotiate a new agreement to keep Flint from leaving Detroit’s water department failed. Detroit lost its second-biggest customer, and Flint, it turned out, lost a reliable source of drinking water.

The new regional water provider that Flint intended to join was not yet built. So Flint rebooted the old riverfront plant and began treating its own water — a process that went catastrophically wrong. Not only was there excess exposure to lead from the waterafter the switch, but there were bacterial problems, unsafe levels of a disinfection byproduct and an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease, which sickened at least 90 people and killed at least 12. As Kettering University associateprofessor and Flint resident Benjamin J. Pauli details in the book “Flint Fights Back,” the water activism in the city emerged from its democracy movement, where residents pushed back against emergency management.

“I do think the Flint crisis did happen partly because Detroit was taking all the attention,” Scorsone said. As signs of trouble in Flint escalated — from residents protesting about health issues to a General Motors plant leaving city water because it corroded its machinery — Scorsone described the reaction of some state officials, including at the Treasury Department, as, “Yeah, whatever, it’s just Flint.”

Two of Flint’s emergency managers later faced criminal charges, under two different prosecution efforts, for their roles in the water crisis. Both indictments included charges of misconduct in office. In both cases, they pleaded not guilty and a judge later dismissed all charges against them.

The Flint River flows past townhouses near downtown Flint, Michigan October 22, 2020. (Photo by SETH HERALD / AFP) (Photo by SETH HERALD/AFP via Getty Images)

3. There Are Other Ways

“Something I’ve learned over the 20 years I’ve been doing this now in Michigan is that we have created a bad public finance system,” Scorsone said. “And that system puts local governments at risk.”

In his recent presentation, Scorsone described how state restrictions curtail the revenue and spending of local governments, threatening to reduce critical public services, defer maintenance and investment in infrastructure and perpetuate inequality between communities.

There are a number of ways the state could support cities before they reach a point of crisis, he said. It could, for example, change its approach to property taxes. Restricting the tax base and rate, he said, has eroded the revenue of many cities.

The state could also change its practice of revenue sharing, he said. A 2019 fact sheet from the Michigan Municipal League, a statewide association, said that between 2001 and 2018, the state diverted $8.6 billion from local governments.

Such policies put communities on shaky ground even before the recession, Scorsone said. “Other states didn’t have this. Other states didn’t have a bunch of cities failing.”

“Instead of just realizing you have a bad system,” he said, state legislators passed the emergency management law to try to clean up problems after they’ve reached a crisis.

In a statement, the Treasury Department emphasized that it tries to work with municipalities and school districts to avoid financial problems. The emergency management law, the department said, “is a law of last resort — and all options must be explored and exhausted before its use.”

Whitmer’s office emphasized to ProPublica that no local governments are currently under emergency management, pointing to that as a sign her policies have bolstered their financial health. “The governor has always opposed the use of emergency managers because it has led to disastrous results for communities,” her press secretary said in an emailed response.

In the aftermath of the problems in Flint, a report from a bipartisan task force commissioned by Snyder recommended changes to the emergency management law, citing its lack of checks and balances and concern over managers making key decisions outside their expertise. And a growing body of research on the law has described troubling consequences.

But while some Democrats who were among the law’s critics are now in power, efforts to repeal or revise the law have yet to move forward. In February, shortly after the party took power in Lansing, a bill to repeal the law was introduced by Rep. Brenda Carter, a Democrat from Pontiac, which has had emergency managers. The bill, which has the support of Pontiac’s City Council members, was referred to a committee six months ago. Carter’s policy director said she’s working with House Majority Leader Abraham Aiyash, a Democrat from Hamtramck (another community affected by emergency management), on a companion bill to create an alternative system for assisting disinvested cities and schools.

Scorsone said that he and others “are pushing privately to say, ‘Look, now’s the time to change it, before you really need it.’”

In a statement to ProPublica, Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks, a Democrat from Grand Rapids, indicated dissatisfaction with the law, but she stopped short of specifying how to fix it.

“The way Gov. Snyder weaponized emergency managers created harm that will be felt by generations in certain communities throughout our state,” Brinks said. “He misused and overused a policy that is supposed to help governments in dire circumstances.

“I believe that there still needs to be an avenue where the state can assist in these situations, without usurping the role of democratically elected local leaders,” she added. “Any changes in the future will be the result of many long conversations with the input of cities, townships, school boards, residents and more.”

Scorsone pointed out that the state’s Treasury Department has all sorts of regulatory tools for budgets, accounting, auditing and more that can be used to support struggling cities and schools while avoiding emergency control.

“There’s other ways to deal with this kind of financial crisis that is more transparent, that is more effective, that doesn’t get rid of democracy and that is still going to get the outcomes,” Scorsone said.

Tommy ‘110-Percent-Against-Racism’ Tuberville Still Doesn’t Think White Nationalists Are Racist

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) on Monday refused to walk back statements he recently made defining white nationalists as nothing more than your average patriotic “Americans.” 

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