We Are All Paying The Price For Kevin McCarthy’s Pathetic Weakness

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

GOP Shutdown Watch

Much of the coverage of the looming government shutdown is just terrible because it doesn’t accurately capture the power dynamic at play, obscures what’s really going on, and falls into lazy (yet breathless!) procedural play-by-play.

Here’s the real power dynamic to focus on: There is bipartisan support for a budget deal in the Senate and there are enough votes in the House for such a deal, but the holdup (or the stickup, to be more accurate) is that the Freedom Caucus is threatening Kevin McCarthy’s speakership so he won’t bring bipartisan deals to the floor. That is the rub here. Full stop.

Anything you read about the dynamic being Biden v. McCarthy or Senate v. House is simply wrong. It’s not even quite right to frame it as far-right House GOP v. rest of the House GOP. McCarthy is being extorted by the far-right and caving to the pressure by refusing to bring to the floor budget vehicles that would pass right now … today … in a heartbeat.

What Happens Next?

I’m getting questions about what will happen, and while I don’t like making predictions, it’s fair to say:

  • With the House GOP’s right-wing circus wanting a shutdown, it’s more likely than not we get one starting Oct. 1. In lieu of a shutdown, they might take McCarthy’s speakership instead but that would be the dog catching the car, and for as crazy as the Freedom Caucus is they seem to realize that the current setup is perfect for them: They can keep McCarthy on a short leash, continue to hold a cartoon bomb (💣) and threaten to detonate it, and break institutions, processes, and norms with impunity.
  • For those reasons, it’s hard for me to imagine a short, quickly resolved shutdown. It’s possible, but there’s no obvious forcing mechanism to get a deal done now or after the shutdown begins. Perhaps the end-of-year holidays create some additional pressure, but that would mean a record-long shutdown.
  • Whatever the ultimate resolution, it’s going to be messy and convoluted and designed to save face and obscure the real underlying power dynamic. Unfortunately, part of why we’re in this morass is that the Freedom Caucus sees shutting the government down as a “win” no matter what concessions they make later.  

McCarthy deserves everything he gets, but dragging the elderly, the poor, the most vulnerable with him into a needless shutdown is a product of his own political and characterological weakness.

The Man Can’t Drive A Hard Bargain

It looked for a time like McCarthy was greenlighting a Biden impeachment inquiry as a way to placate the Freedom Caucus: You give me a budget deal, and I’ll give you room to run on impeachment. But at this point, it looks like McCarthy once again made a concession and in return got … nothing.

The House GOP’s inane, baseless, evidence-free impeachment inquiry kicks off today. All you need to know: Among the witnesses (none of whom are fact witnesses) for the first impeachment hearing is the shameless Jonathan Turley.

This Is Gross

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conservative white woman from Georgia, inserted a provision into the defense spending bill to slash the salary of Lloyd Austin, the first Black secretary of defense, to $1 per year. The bill passed the House (though it is DOA in the Senate).

Chutkan Refuses To Recuse

In a tight, solid, almost bulletproof ruling, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan denied Donald Trump’s motion to recuse herself from his Jan. 6 case.

Delay, Delay, Delay

You may have noticed that things have quieted a bit in the Trump prosecutions, at least publicly. Much pretrial wrangling is ahead, and there is prep behind the scenes for that and for the trials themselves. So a fierce level of activity behind closed doors, but a lot less public-facing movement – and notably a lot fewer new factual reveals, bombshells, or other newsy tidbits. Alas, this is what happens when the story shifts from the investigative and political realms into the criminal justice system.

Two new developments yesterday, though, that tell the story of Trump’s delay strategy:

Trump’s Threats Against Judges

Another day, another threat from Donald Trump toward a judge:

Andrew Weissmann is exactly right when he says something awful is going to happen to someone targeted by Trump and we’re all going to sit around lamenting that we saw it coming from a million miles away:

Trump’s Threats Against The Military

ICYMI

I had missed this exchange from Cassidy Hutchison’s interview with Lawrence O’Donnell the other night. You’ll recall that O’Donnell connected Hutchinson with Alexander Butterfield, the Nixon White House figure who revealed the Oval Office taping system. She recalls crying when she saw the segment with Butterfield and the promise she later made to him when they talked:

About Last Night’s Debate Fiasco …

The GOP debates sans Trump are the most meaningless exercises in the six decades we’ve been doing the televised presidential debate schtick:

If you’re curious despite yourself about what went down last night, our team has you covered:

  • TPM: Republicans Yell, Interrupt, Make Uncomfortable Sex Jokes At Second Debate
  • Josh Marshall: “The two GOP debates have amounted to a kind of cosplay episode.”

Good Read

TPM’s Hunter Walker: Joe Kent Is The Most Extreme House Candidate You Haven’t Heard About 

YOLO

Led by the sartorialists Joe Manchin and Mitt Romey, the Senate attended to the urgent business of formalizing a dress code for itself, to which John Fetterman responded:

Hoochie Coochie Man

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Republicans Yell, Interrupt, Make Uncomfortable Sex Jokes At Second Debate

The Republican 2024 hopefuls gathered in Simi Valley, California Wednesday for a very combative second debate. While the moderators asked mostly substantive questions, they failed to control a group intent on getting in the punches the candidates didn’t land last time.

Competition for the most memorable moment in the debate is stiff between Chris Christie bawdily saying that President Biden is “sleeping with a member of the teachers union” — followed by Mike Pence making the most uncomfortable sex joke on record — and Nikki Haley telling Vivek Ramaswamy “every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber.”

Christie and Ron DeSantis took a few more whacks at Donald Trump than last time, mostly for his debate absenteeism. It was loud, it was long, it had me hiding my face in the collar of my sweater.

Catch up below:

Quick Debate Thoughts

I’ve said repeatedly going back almost a year that there’s virtually no way anyone can defeat Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary. Certainly nothing has changed to alter that judgment. The two GOP debates have amounted to a kind of cosplay episode. Aside from the yelling, canned comments and embarrassing moments, the one thing that struck me about tonight’s debate is this: two or three of the contenders seem to be realizing, finally, that there’s zero point in doing this without attacking Donald Trump. Not in some vague wink wink way but directly. Is this a game changer? Of course not. But it was enough to give a hint of how this primary process might actually have been contested in some meaningful way, even if Trump likely still would have been the nominee.

Fundamentally it’s Trump’s party. So he’s the nominee. But in those few moments of attacks you could see how a different kind of contest could have unfolded. They really seem to have thought that Republicans might abandon Trump (to whom Republican voters have committed so much) without them even saying there was anything wrong with him. That’s a remarkable failure of imagination and personal character.

Cosplay Debate Live Blog

10:53 PM: Just a brutally stupid spectacle. Hard to know what to say beyond that.

9:56 PM: The most chilling thing about watching this debate is the commercials. I just saw an ad saying to oppose a new Biden FDA ban on menthol flavoring in cigarettes will empower the Mexican drug cartels.

9:40 PM: Chris Christie finally stood up and attacked Trump for once.

9:12 PM: It’s not Trump talking here. But there’s a big argument out there that the GOP is somehow increasingly pro-union. Not just Trump but the GOP. And yet here you see a pretty resoundingly anti-union message. Mass firings, making fun of wage demands support for right-to-work laws.

9:08 PM: The message here seems to be making fun of UAW and the strike.

9:01 PM: Ok, folks. Here we go.

He’s Not Even Addressing A Union Shop

In anticipation of Donald Trump’s address to workers at an auto parts factory Wednesday night — which the former president is using to steal oxygen from the GOP debate — there have been some … questionable takes published on a supposed shift in the Republican Party’s interest in supporting union workers’ rights.

Continue reading “He’s Not Even Addressing A Union Shop”

Cuba Blames People ‘With Terrorist Tendencies’ For Molotov Cocktail Attack On D.C. Embassy

Cuba’s deputy minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío Domínguez, weighed in on the recent attack on his country’s embassy in Washington D.C. during a briefing with reporters on Wednesday. 

“We don’t have any facts at the moment about the individual. It’s an ongoing investigation according to what’s been said by the U.S. government,” Dominguez said in response to a question from TPM. “We expect to be informed about the course of the investigation.”

Cuban officials have said an unidentified individual threw two Molotov cocktails at the embassy on Sunday night. Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, Cuba’s foreign minister, has described the incident as a “terrorist attack.” No one was injured. Cuban officials turned over security footage to U.S. law enforcement showing a person lighting and throwing two incendiary devices at the front wall of the diplomatic mission shortly before 8 p.m.

The State Department has condemned Sunday’s Molotov cocktail attack as “unacceptable.” 

The incident was the second attack on the embassy since it was reopened after more than half a century in 2015 when President Barack Obama resumed diplomatic relations between the two countries. In April 2020, a Cuban man who was living in this country was arrested and charged after he “fired approximately 32 rounds of an assault-style weapon” at the embassy. The building was occupied during the shooting, but no one was injured. 

Cuba, which the State Department considers an authoritarian state, has a vocal exile community that has accused the country’s government of human rights abuses and repression. The U.S. has long been a haven for the Cuban opposition. Cuba has been under a U.S. embargo for more than 60 years following the country’s communist revolution. The Cuban government refers to the embargo as a blockade and has blamed it for worsening humanitarian conditions in the country. 

While Obama made efforts to normalize relations with Cuba, President Trump stepped up sanctions. In early 2021, shortly before he left office, Trump designated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, a characterization the island’s government vigorously disputes. 

Following the attack in 2020, Cuba’s UN ambassador criticized the U.S. government for not calling the shooting terrorism and described it as the “direct result of the US Government´s aggressive and hateful policy and speeches against Cuba and the permanent incitement to violence by US politicians.”

In his remarks to reporters on Wednesday, the majority of which were off record, Dominguez expressed hope American authorities would be able to identify the perpetrator of the Molotov attack. At the same time, he also suggested the U.S. bore some responsibility for the tensions that may have led to the incident. 

“We believe they should have — this is only an assumption — that they have the capacity to get to the bottom of this,” Dominguez said. “What we have done is to alert about the circumstances that made people — some people in the United States with terrorist tendencies — to believe they can act with impunity against the embassy of Cuba. But at the moment, we are awaiting the results of the investigation that is being carried out by U.S. law enforcement agencies.”

Schumer: ‘We’ll See What Happens’ After Menendez Addresses Dem Caucus Thursday

More than two dozen Senate Democrats have called on Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) to resign from office since he was indicted on federal bribery and corruption charges last week. 

Continue reading “Schumer: ‘We’ll See What Happens’ After Menendez Addresses Dem Caucus Thursday”

Trump’s Two Storylines

The biggest challenge of telling the story of history as it unfolds is that you don’t know how it ends. This is a commonplace, of course — a humorous aside or even trite. But the implications of this fact are not always obvious. So it can be worth considering what it means. We are a story-telling species. We take the unorganized facts of existence and weave them together into meaningful trajectories through time. The meaning and logic of these stories are intrinsically linked to and bounded by the unique features of the human brain. When I started studying to be a historian in a PhD program in the early 90s I found this unnerving. But I later realized or perhaps decided that it was one of the essential, nourishing features of being human.

This is always the case. And we are constantly in the process of revising stories — either in our own individual lives or as journalists making sense of the larger world we live in. But there are some moments in which the fracture, the potentially different storylines seem especially great, where the very different lists of what’s important and what’s not is especially stark. We seem to be in one of those moments in the story of the 2024 campaign. And by this I actually don’t mean the hugely consequential question of who wins the election, though of course it’s related to that. I’m talking about the Trump story itself.

Continue reading “Trump’s Two Storylines”

Joe Kent Is The Most Extreme House Candidate You Haven’t Heard About 

There’s a lot going on with Joe Kent.

On the campaign trail, Kent has painted a terrifying picture of a nation under siege from violent terrorists and authoritarians. Kent, a two-time Republican House candidate in Washington state, has described “antifa” as “foot soldiers” for Democrats who stage murders and riots with “impunity.” He’s warned of a radical “trans agenda” designed to “erode the family unit” and replace it with “government.” He’s suggested that the FBI should “target” antifa but also be defunded, brought “to heel,” and replaced with “constitutional sheriffs,” adherents of a controversial movement that has been linked to white supremacists and militia groups. 

Kent has promoted conspiracies about COVID and the Jan. 6 attack. He’s called the people who stormed the U.S. Capitol “political prisoners” and advanced the notion that “government controlled agents” were really behind the violence as part of an effort to tamp down opposition. Kent has similarly referred to vaccines and quarantines as “tyranny” designed to “keep us afraid, obedient, locked down & dependent.”

This terrifying fever dream vision of the country has helped Kent win support from extremists. However, it hasn’t stopped him from getting official Republican Party support or having a real chance of victory in November. 

A Special Forces veteran and former CIA operative whose wife was killed fighting ISIS, Kent first ran for the House seat in 2022 after the Republican incumbent, Jaime Herrera-Beutler, voted to impeach former President Donald Trump for his actions on Jan. 6. Kent, who presented himself as being motivated by loyalty to Trump, defeated Herrera-Beutler in a non-partisan primary before narrowly losing the general election to the current incumbent, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA), by less than a percentage point. Kent announced his decision to run again almost immediately after that loss and the 2024 race is currently rated as a toss up. 

During his first campaign, Kent was linked to two prominent Nazi sympathizers. In 2021, he had a phone call to discuss social media strategy with Nick Fuentes. Kent also defended Fuentes when the firebrand was banned from Twitter. The next year, Kent conducted an interview with Greyson Arnold, a blogger responsible for a long list of racist, anti-Semitic, and pro-Nazi commentary. Kent ultimately disavowed both Fuentes and Arnold while he also tried to placate some elements of the far right. This led to a rift with Fuentes and attacks from a shadowy group that painted Kent as an “agent of the deep state.” 

Kent’s ties to extremists don’t end there. At a March 2022 protest against pandemic mandates, Kent shared the stage and posed for photos with supporters of “three percenter” militia groups, a reference to the inaccurate claim only three percent of the population fought the British during the American Revolution. Over four months last year, Kent’s campaign paid a five-figure sum for “consulting” to a man who was identified by law enforcement as a member of the Proud Boys, the militant far-right group whose leaders were convicted of seditious conspiracy in the Jan. 6 attack. 

Joe Kent posing with a man in a “three percenter” sweatshirt at an anti-mandate rally in 2022. (Photo: Twitter.com/Joekent16jn19)

As some of his links to the far right made news in 2022, Kent tried to moderate his rhetoric including by deleting references to conspiracies about Trump’s election loss from his campaign site. However, one of his top advisers in that race, Matt Braynard, had his own history of extremism. Braynard is one of the most prominent defenders of the people who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. He was involved in attempts to audit the 2020 election that fueled conspiracy theories about Trump’s loss and later staged a “Justice For J6” rally in September 2021 where Kent was among the speakers and the Capitol rioters were treated as martyrs. Braynard also has his ownlinks to Fuentes and a history of incendiary statements including repeatedlydenouncing what he described as “globohomo” politics and a 2018 tweet where he responded to a news article about a French politician facing criticism for minimizing the crimes of Adolf Hitler and Nazism by declaring: “The world will be a better place when Germany is again proud of its history. “

Kent made headlines last year as the national media took note of the fact there was a potential member of Congress with clear links to neo-Nazis and militant groups. This time around, the Democratic incumbent, Gluesenkamp Perez, has attempted to highlight Kent’s association with the far right and his wild, conspiratorial platform. 

“Based on his long track record of surrounding himself with extremist weirdos, it’s not a surprise to see this trend continue,” Timothy Gowen, Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign manager said in a statement to TPM, adding, “The contrast in this race could not be clearer: Marie is focused on solving real problems for working families in her district, while Kent is on Twitter spouting off about conspiracy theories and pushing dangerous, zany ideas like defunding the FBI, arresting Anthony Fauci for murder, and legalizing machine guns for anyone.”

As a second-time candidate, Kent is not a new story. His extreme brand of politics is also increasingly not out of step with the wider Republican Party in the MAGA era. As TPM has reported, there are sitting members of Congress with links to Fuentes, affinity for conspiracy theories, ties to militants, and histories of promoting the efforts to paint the Jan. 6 rioters as political prisoners. The Washington state Republican Party, which has endorsed Kent, once paid the same pro-Nazi blogger who interviewed him during last year’s race.  

The fact Kent’s extremism is not a new story or an isolated incident has enabled him to fly further under the national radar in his current campaign. Yet Kent’s very real chance of victory shows the dangers of becoming numb to far right extremism as it loses its novelty and increasingly becomes business as usual for some segments of the GOP. 

With less of a national spotlight, Kent has tried to paint himself with a more moderate sheen. His campaign did not respond to a request for comment on this story, however, Braynard, who has continuously promoted Kent on social media, insisted he’s no longer part of the team in an email to TPM where he dismissed any coverage of the candidate’s positions as a “hit piece.”

“I’m no longer working for the Kent campaign and haven’t since November 2022,” Braynard wrote.

Financial disclosure forms show the Kent campaign has not directly paid any individual staffers a salary this year making it difficult to identify anyone on his team apart from his treasurer. Kent has pointed to his rift with Fuentes as he denied sharing white nationalist views. He has also sought to discourage coverage of his more extreme statements. Last month, he launched a legal challenge against a local paper for a 2022 article that described a town hall event where a handful of Fuentes supporters angry with Kent’s disavowal of the firebrand activist showed up to question the candidate. The article noted that Kent appeared to agree with a member the pro-Fuentes group that there should be a “complete shutdown” of immigration not through marriage. Kent has repeatedly tried to deny taking that position, but the paper has stood by its reporting and surfaced a recording of the event. 

On social media and in a digital ad released on Tuesday, Kent has dismissed his opponent’s efforts to highlight his extremism as “name calling.” 

“Help me restore common sense,” Kent wrote in one post. 

Kent’s positions may indeed be common in some corners of the Republican Party. However, they are worth taking note of. As Kent himself once said, “Washington’s Third Congressional District needs a representative that does not hide from the voters.”

Your Thoughts on Trump Coverage

TPM Reader NB responds to my post on Trump coverage …

I have to say, this piece made me uncharacteristically angry, and I’m still trying to put my finger on precisely why—especially since I agree with you about the basic remedy. Yes, the media’s job is neither to hide behind endless euphemism or analysis-as-apologia, nor to engage in deplatforming, but first and foremost to inform. Leave the excuse-making to partisans or to the audience’s own shocked internal But Surely!’s.

Continue reading “Your Thoughts on Trump Coverage”