Succession, Wingnut World Edition

Posted on by Josh Marshall

We now have two official candidates to succeed Kevin McCarthy: Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan. It seems unlikely we’ll get another candidate, at least another with a real shot at winning.

Despite the fact that Jordan is from the Freedom Caucus and Scalise was in effect McCarthy’s deputy, Jordan is a McCarthy ally. From the outside, we tend to see the House in ideological or partisan terms. But there are factions and alliances that transcend those divisions. Indeed a leader’s faction almost by definition has to span the ideological breadth of the caucus. That’s the only way to win a leadership election. In many ways, this succession fight is between Team Scalise and Team McCarthy, with Jordan being the nominee of Team McCarthy.

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A Contrary View

Posted on by Josh Marshall

TPM Reader PT says Dems should have propped McCarthy up. On balance, I don’t agree. But he makes a good argument.

I realize this is contrary to conventional wisdom, and your own analysis of the situation, but if I had been running the House Democratic Caucus I would have provided Kevin McCarthy with votes to keep the Speakership. My thinking is the following:

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Trump Tries To Turn ‘Deep State’ Gag Order Into Fundraising Opportunity

Posted on by Hunter Walker

Former President Trump is trying to turn the fact he’s facing a potential gag order for incendiary statements targeting people involved in his Jan. 6 criminal trial into a money-making opportunity for his re-election campaign. 

Trump sent a fundraising email to supporters on Wednesday describing Special Counsel Jack Smith’s request for a limited gag order as an effort by “Deep State Democrats” to censor him “to satisfy these tyrants’ thirst for power.” The message urged Trump’s supporters to monetize their outrage. 

“Please make a contribution to show that you will NEVER SURRENDER our country to tyranny as the Deep State thugs try to JAIL me for life as an innocent man – for 1,500% impact,” Trump wrote. 

Trump, who is currently under indictment in four different jurisdictions, has repeatedly lashed out and made menacing statements directed at witnesses, prosecutors, judges, and others involved in the cases. Along with the criminal prosecutions, Trump is facing a civil trial in New York brought by the state’s attorney general as a result of allegedly fraudulent practices at the former president’s real estate business. The civil trial began in Manhattan on Monday. For the first two days of the case, Trump used public appearances, his social media platform Truth Social, and his presidential campaign press list to launch a series of wild and false attacks on the prosecutor, judge, and a clerk for the court. Trump’s outbursts led the judge to impose a narrow gag order on Tuesday barring the former president and others in the case “from posting emailing or speaking publicly about any of my staff.” 

The fundraising email from Trump’s campaign referred to the civil trial as a “sham,” but did not note the gag order in that case. Instead, Trump focused on the case in Washington D.C. federal court related to his efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, which culminated in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Last month, prosecutors sought a “narrowly tailored” limited gag order in that trial and cited Trump’s “disparaging and inflammatory public posts on Truth Social on a near-daily basis regarding the citizens of the District of Columbia, the court, prosecutors and prospective witnesses.” In their request, the prosecutors noted Trump’s comments have coincided with threats from his supporters to the special counsel and other targets of his wrath, including the judge herself. 

“The government seeks a narrow, well-defined restriction that is targeted at extrajudicial statements that present a serious and substantial danger of materially prejudicing this case,” prosecutors wrote.

Prosecutors re-iterated the request for a limited gag order on Sept. 29 after Trump continued to attack potential witnesses in the case. They highlighted comments Trump made suggesting Mark Milley, the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, should be executed for treason. Milley, who was a fourstar general and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, retired last month and subsequently made a series of critical comments about Trump in interviews. In addition to having served as the nation’s top military officer, Milley was a witness cited in the special counsel’s Jan. 6 indictment. 

In the post highlighted by prosecutors, Trump described Milley as a “woke train wreck” and accused the retired general of improperly communicating with China. 

“This is an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH!” Trump wrote. 

Milley, who has defended his communications with China and consistently warned about the dangers posed by Beijing, has said he’s taken “appropriate measures” to secure his family as a result of Trump’s threats. The trials against Trump have featured increased security measures amid the former president’s threats and associated reactions from his supporters. 

The judge in the Jan. 6 case, Tanya Chutkan is set to weigh in on the gag order request during a hearing on Oct. 16. Trump’s attorneys have responded by framing the call for sanctions as censorship. When prosecutors reiterated the request, one of them, Molly Gaston, noted,“No other criminal defendant would be permitted to issue public statements insinuating that a known witness in his case should be executed.”

“He demands special treatment, asserting that because he is a political candidate, he should have free rein to publicly intimidate witnesses and malign the court, citizens of this district, and prosecutors,” Gaston wrote. “But in this case, Donald J. Trump is a criminal defendant like any other.”

Trump has repeatedly used his myriad legal troubles as a fundraising opportunity for his political committees, which are paying some of his legal bills. In his latest fundraising email about the possible gag order, Trump made clear he absolutely does not see himself as a standard criminal defendant. Instead, he once again framed the prosecution as an effort to target him politically. 

“Crooked Joe’s weaponized DOJ may very well get away with stripping Biden’s leading opponent (ME) of his First Amendment right to freedom of speech in the 2024 presidential election. We are watching the ruling regime commit Election Interference in BROAD DAYLIGHT,” Trump wrote.
The message ignored the limited nature of the gag order request and the fact it would have to be granted by a judge rather than Justice Department prosecutors. 
After outlining his conspiratorial vision of the trial, Trump presented a list of contributors and suggested donating to his campaign is the way to fight back. 
“No matter the outcome of the October 16th Gag Order Hearing, the Deep State can NEVER GAG the American people!” he wrote.  

Morning Observations and Questions

Posted on by Josh Marshall

First: The fact that Kevin McCarthy was ousted with the motion to vacate was not a huge surprise. The huge surprise was that within less than two hours of the vote he threw in the towel and effectively ended not only his Speakership but his political career. It’s still not clear to me whether he had key conversations during that short interlude that told him it was hopeless or that, at a basic level, he simply didn’t have the fight in him. By all accounts it was a total stunner for basically everyone in the Tuesday evening conference meeting.

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Kevin McCarthy’s Ouster Is A Mere Symptom Of The Deeper GOP Pathology

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

It’s Systemic Not Personal

Between the comedic value, the schadenfreude, the story-telling appeal, and voyeuristic frisson, there’s a lot to love about the downfall of Kevin McCarthy. He deserved everything he got. The House GOP is a colossal mess. If you like spectacles that reinforce your priors and expose the foibles of the incompetent and cruel, this is a glorious time.

“At the start, his speakership was effectively an optical illusion,” John Harris writes. “At the end, it was an exercise in self-abasement.” Indeed.

But this is not really about Kevin McCarthy. He’s a stand-in. Before him were the chronically debased Paul Ryan and John Boehner. The House GOP has been on this merry-go-round for more than a decade.

McCarthy’s downfall is another symptom of the same underlying pathologies: a cultish GOP in thrall to a would-be autocrat, anti-majoritarian structural impediments, a surge in right-wing extremism, white resentments and grievances channeled into a burn-it-all-down fever.

It’s why spending even a moment purporting to analyze whether Democrats “joined” the MAGA right to depose McCarthy is foolishness. This is about right-wing politics in America. But more importantly, there was nothing cathartic about McCarthy’s ouster. It doesn’t change the underlying systemic problems.

It also makes the glut of analysis that focuses on tactical tricks or 3D-chess moves seem so trite and ill-conceived. You can’t “tactics” your way out of deeply rooted systemic problems, no matter how clever you may be.

I’m a firm believer in the credo that things can always get worse, not as a lament, or a throwing up of the hands, but as a cold-eyed assessment of the road ahead. With McCarthy out, things can definitely get worse.

What’s Next?

Let’s preface this with the observation that no one really knows what’s next. This is uncharted territory. The House GOP is a rolling clown show and that makes predictions foolhardy.

In the vacuum of certainty, everyone tries to find some semblance of order. So it was that Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC) sketched out a “schedule” for electing McCarthy’s successor:

  • Next Tuesday: a candidate “forum” of some kind
  • Next Wednesday: vote on a new speaker.

That sounds like a structured, planned approach. But it’s really not. They’re winging it.

Succession

Most of the coverage of the succession question is focused on Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, with a little noise around Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern (R-OK). 

Did I mention that things could get worse before they better?

Does It Even Matter?

I’m not even sure the succession question is the right question. Will the House GOP change the rule that McCarthy agreed to as a price of winning the speakership that leaves a motion to vacate hanging over the head of any speaker like a sword of Damocles?

If not, then the next speaker may not have a real majority anymore than McCarthy did.

Again, this is systemic. Not personal.

That Poor Gavel

For The Record

The eight House GOP mutineers who ousted McCarthy:

  • Matt Gaetz (FL)
  • Andy Biggs (AZ)
  • Tim Burchett (TN) t
  • Eli Crane (AZ)
  • Nancy Mace (SC)
  • Matt Rosendale (MT)
  • Bob Good (VA)
  • Ken Buck (CO)

Don’t Feel Sorry For McCarthy

McHenry Boots Pelosi From Her Capitol Hideaway

Among Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHeny’s first acts: booting Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer from their plum Capitol offices.

Pelosi, who missed the McCarthy ouster to be back home for the series of memorial events for the late Sen. Dianna Feinstein (D-CA), being vaguely retaliated against while she’s away is extra galling – but exactly the kind of bullying we’ve come to expect.

What’s Happening Here?

Taken together, McCarthy’s lashing out at Dems after his own party dumped him, McHenry inflicting pain on former Dem leaders, and inane analysis egged on by Republicans, is sooo symptomatic of the current GOP.

Cruelty remains its most vital currency, the thing that unites them despite all their other divisions. Lashing out, exacting “revenge” for perceived slights, framing the world in a binary friend v. foe way is the quickest way to reestablish internally something that vaguely looks like unity. It’s also a flex for a new albeit temporary leader like McHenry.

There’s also an element of bullying rolling downhill, with the bullied and abused taking out their frustrations and acting out their damaged psyches by bullying and abusing others.

Truth

Groan …

Trump Slapped With Gag Order

A lot has happened since yesterday’s Morning Memo on Trump’s attacks against the New York court hearing his civil fraud trial. The attacks continued, with a Truth Social post by Trump targeting the court clerk and Trump’s campaign doing an oppo research dump on the judge. TPM’s Hunter Walker reports on the crazy day in court.

Chutkan Calls Trump’s Bluff On Security Clearances

A play in three parts:

Act I: As part of its delay strategy, Trump’s legal team told the U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan it needed more time to obtain the necessary security clearances.

Act II: Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team responded that some of Trump’s lawyers still hadn’t turned in the necessary paperwork.

Act III: Chutkan ordered Trump’s legal team to get its shit together on security clearances by next week.

Rudy G’s Long Descent

The NYT goes deep on Rudy Giuliani’s drinking:

Yet to almost anyone in proximity, friends say, Mr. Giuliani’s drinking has been the pulsing drumbeat punctuating his descent — not the cause of his reputational collapse but the ubiquitous evidence, well before Election Day in 2020, that something was not right with the former president’s most incautious lieutenant.

MUST READ

Tim Miller: Those Crazy Plans for Trump 2.0? Take Them Seriously.

SCOTUS May Spare The CFPB

In oral arguments Tuesday, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority was less open to gutting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau than legal observers had expected.

Fifth Circuit Is Gonna Fifth Circuit

The most conservative appeals court ended up doing what it screwed up trying to do last week in the big case against the Biden administration’s handling of misinformation on social media platforms.

A Good Point On SCOTUS And The Fifth Circuit

With the Fifth Circuit serving as a steady pipeline of crazy-ass conservative legal theories, keep this in mind:

Hardball

Leonard Leo is refusing to cooperate with the DC attorney general’s investigation into his tangled web of dark money outfits and conservative legal advocacy.

Physics Don’t Care Who The Speaker Of The House Is

More on September’s record-shattering heat here.

Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!

An Observation

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Here is the chain of events as I understand them. Yesterday Matt Gaetz filed his motion to vacate. Last night then-Speaker McCarthy challenged Gaetz on Twitter to “bring it on.” Today McCarthy decided to hold the vote at the first opportunity rather than wait. It quickly became apparent McCarthy would lose the vote. He did lose the vote. Then a few hours later he told his caucus that he wouldn’t be running to get the job back. He was out for good.

His colleagues were apparently stunned by the announcement. His allies were prepping for a grueling fight to regain the Speakership. The length of time between McCarthy’s ouster and his announcement was roughly two hours. That’s enough time to have a few conversations and get the impression it’s too high a hill. But just barely. It’s hard to look at these facts and not conclude that McCarthy simply didn’t have the fight in him.

Amazing

Posted on by Josh Marshall

I find this both fascinating and comical. The first big collateral damage of McCarthy’s fall may be the bipartisan “problem solvers caucus”. This is the group organized by the No Labels folks. But it’s basically a centrist group with members from both parties. Axios reports that the Republicans are livid with their Democratic colleagues for letting Kevin McCarthy go down the tubes.

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Welp

Posted on by Josh Marshall

That did not play out how I expected. No other way to put it. Kevin McCarthy was ousted and then within hours he self-ousted. He’s out. He won’t try to win back the gavel. (Someone in that position almost inevitably leaves Congress. But that’s a story for another day.) Now the race seems – at least for the moment – fairly wide open.

The whole drama is vaguely reminiscent of the day of chaos that launched the Speakership of Denny Hastert 25 years ago. People i’ve spoken to speak of confusion, chaos, uncertainty. All of that makes sense. The one thing that stands out to me is that the supposedly most hated guy in the caucus decided to throw down the gauntlet and he won. He made a decision and McCarthy is gone. It’s very hard for me to see how that doesn’t leave if not Gaetz himself then Gaetz’s crew much more powerful than they were. The next Speaker knows the price of crossing them.

McCarthy Loses Gavel In Far Right Mutiny

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on Tuesday lost the job he endured 15 votes to secure back in January, as a faction of his own party forced his ouster.

Eight Republicans joined all the Democrats to oust the speaker.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), a close McCarthy ally, will take over as Speaker Pro Tempore until another election is held.

After a very quick meeting late Tuesday evening, Republican members told reporters that McCarthy said he won’t run again, and that he didn’t name a successor.

After Clerical Error, 5th Circuit Still Gives Red States Bonus Win In Biden Social Media Case

Posted on by Kate Riga

A Fifth Circuit panel on Tuesday gave red states a win on barring additional government agencies from flagging misinformation to social media companies — a week after it accidentally published an order in error that arrived at a similar result. 

Continue reading “After Clerical Error, 5th Circuit Still Gives Red States Bonus Win In Biden Social Media Case” →