Readers Respond #3

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Responding to yesterday’s Backchannel …

I read your post and have to say, I share some of your optimism. Not because things are good or getting better—they’re not!—but because for the first time in what feels like forever, I see potential for the coming year to bring some extremely dark chapters in world history to a close.

First, the Trump-Biden rematch. Like you, I’m not discounting the possibility that Trump wins. But if he doesn’t, that’s the end of him as an active political figure. He’s too old to run again, too criminally liable, too spent. He’ll have a second political life after he dies, I’m sure, like Ronald Reagan had until Trump displaced him with a new cult of personality, but the man himself will be really and truly gone from our politics. Phew!

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Readers Respond #2

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Responding to yesterday’s Backchannel …

You asked for our thoughts RE: Can Any Centers Hold?

Like you, I seem to have had a revelation (somewhere around 2022 but continuing this year) that the good people of America will be fighting Trumpist authoritarianism for decades to come. It’s become the new American sin – not the original sin, but the adopted sin. A sin that was completely avoidable yet irresistible to the power-hungry and to the ignorant. One thing that makes it so dispiriting is that broad swaths of the American public either don’t take it seriously, or they actively (think they) desire it. Life since 2016 has resembled a horror movie where people become zombies not because they are bitten, but because they go down the wrong internet rabbit holes. The mainstream press isn’t immune, either, having developed an insatiable thirst for “Forgotten Man” blood long ago.

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Readers Respond #1

Posted on by Josh Marshall

The first of several responses from TPM Readers to yesterday’s Backchannel …

FWIW – I keep finding myself wondering whether, in terms of American politics, we are experiencing something of a rerun of Reagan’s reelection.  The current situation, of course, differs in all kinds of ways from the situation around New Years, 1984.  The geopolitical realities are very, very different.  American society has become much more polarized since then, and much more unequal.  Climate change did not loom in anything like the same way.  Gerrymandering had not become an art form, and neither major political party included millions of people who had explicitly soured on democracy and lived within an epistemic bubble.

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Michigan Supreme Court Keeps Trump On 2024 Ballot

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Disqualification Clause Case Flounders

In a brief, one-paragraph order, the Michigan Supreme Court has declined to take up the appeal of the Disqualification Clause case against Donald Trump. The decision leaves intact lower court rulings and keeps Trump on the GOP primary ballot.

The grounds for the decision are sparse: “[W]e are not persuaded that the questions presented should be reviewed by this Court.”

A longer dissent by one of the justices offers a bit more insight into the ruling. Elizabeth Welch in dissenting says she would have taken the appeal and ruled on the merits.

“Considering the importance of the legal questions at issue and the speed with which the appellants and the judiciary have moved, I believe it is important for this Court to issue a decision on the merits,” Welch wrote.

Welch distinguished Michigan election law from Colorado’s, where Trump has been declared ineligible for the ballot under the 14th Amendment’s Disqualification Clause. She reiterated that the appeals court was correct in ruling that under Michigan law the secretary of state is without power to remove an ineligible candidate from the ballot.

The big question about this just-issued order is whether those seeking to remove Trump from the ballot might get another chance to do so during the general election. The lower court had ruled that the issue wasn’t ripe for decision on the primary ballot, but would be ripe in the general election if Trump were the GOP nominee.

The ripeness question wasn’t appealed, Welch notes in her dissent, suggesting that the good government groups pursing Trump’s disqualification may yet get another bite at the apple.

Michigan Fake Elector Has Regrets

The Michigan fake elector who had criminal charges against him dropped in exchange for his cooperation “expressed deep regret about his participation,” according to a recording of his interview with prosecutors obtained by NYT.

Dictator On Day One

TPM’s Josh Kovensky: The Executive Orders That Trump Would Issue From The Start

Why The Insurrection Act Needs Revising

Bob Bauer and Jack Goldsmith:

The problem is that the act has very broad and imprecise triggers to its operation and no temporal constraints, and it does not specify any role for Congress to assess, shape or limit the president’s response to an emergency. …

There is no serious dispute, on the merits, that the Insurrection Act gives any president far too much unchecked power. It is hard for anyone to argue that a president should be able to unleash U.S. troops or state militias without any accountability beyond public opinion or impeachment.

Eye on Media

Parker Molloy: NYT’s Past Week of Trump Headlines is a Glimpse into Our Future

Ooof …

NYT:

At least five board members who oversee the Rhode Island Heritage Hall of Fame have resigned from the organization after Michael T. Flynn, the former national security adviser under Donald J. Trump, was chosen to be inducted in 2024.

Fortenberry Conviction Overturned

The conviction of former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) has been overturned on appeal on the grounds that he was tried in the wrong venue.

He was convicted in federal court in Los Angeles on three felony counts of lying to federal investigators about illegal campaign contributions.

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that he should have been tried in Nebraska or Washington DC, where the alleged lies occurred, not LA, the location of the investigation that his alleged lies adversely impacted.

The court said that Fortenberry can be retried in the proper venue.

Quote Of The Day

Jane Coaston’s interview with Tim Alberta on the factors that made evangelicals ready for Trump yields this gem:

If this was truly a 1776 moment, would Lauren Boebert be vaping in the middle of a “Beetlejuice” show, or would she have something more pressing to do with her time?

Tim Alberta

2024 Ephemera

  • NYT op-ed: A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election
  • WSJ: Joe Lieberman’s Campaign for Third-Party Ticket Draws Ire of Democrats—Again
  • WaPo: Biden’s economy vs. Trump’s … in 12 charts

Recommended Reading

Jessica Valenti’s “Abortion, Every Day” is an invaluable resource in a post-Dobbs world.

Hate To See It

AP: “Criminal prosecutors may soon get to see over 900 documents pertaining to the alleged theft of a diary belonging to President Joe Biden’s daughter after a judge rejected the conservative group Project Veritas’ First Amendment claim.”

Is Climate Change Speeding Up?

WaPo:

The record shows that the pace of warming clearly sped up around the year 1970. Scientists have long known that this acceleration stems from a steep increase in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with efforts in many countries to reduce the amount of sun-reflecting pollution in the air. But the data is much more uncertain on whether a second acceleration is underway.

Trump Is So Proud Of Himself

A Daily Mail word cloud caught the former president’s eye:

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Republicans Launch Two-Pronged Attack Against Voting Rights Act

Posted on by Kate Riga

In their endless quest to further defang the Voting Rights Act and gerrymander their way into permanent control, Republican officials have launched a double-headed attack on the landmark civil rights law. 

The new attacks emerge as Republican politicians attempt to wriggle out of judges’ orders requiring that they draw additional, majority-minority, likely Democratic districts in their states, which could imperil their party’s thin majority in the House of Representatives. 

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Will New York Again Hold The Keys To Control Of Congress?

Posted on by John Light

Josh Marshall wrote on Friday about a major court decision out of Wisconsin that could have a significant impact on the makeup of that state’s legislature, famous in recent years for being gerrymandered in favor of Republicans to an almost comic degree.

Its one of a number of redistricting fights we’re watching heading into 2024. My colleague Kate Riga will have more tomorrow on how four others — in Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas — interact with a long-running effort on the right to chip away at Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

With Nicole out on a much-deserved holiday vacation, I wanted to use this space to look at another gerrymandering dispute that we haven’t given much attention to in recent months, but that could be hugely important. New York’s years-long fight over its districts is continuing to play out slowly and convolutedly — but the question of whether the state has new maps by November 2024 may determine control of Congress.

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Can Any Centers Hold?

Posted on by Josh Marshall

I’ve reading up on those end-of-the-year “what the year meant” columns. 2023 was the year of this; 2023 was the year when that happened. You know the genre. It’s a silly exercise since years aren’t about anything. Or to the extent they are it’s all but impossible for those of us living through them to make any sense of what it might be. But it’s still an interesting canvas onto which people paint an experienced moment. To me it was the year when people seemed to settle into, get comfy with the idea that our present is one of never-ending terribles. Put differently, it was the year that many of you decided that the annus horribilis of 2016 was not a comically bad demolition derby of years or a bad year with several relatedly bad years following it but simply the arrival of a new normal.

(Don’t worry. This post gets better! Follow me after the jump.)

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Mike Lindell Insists He’s Happy Jimmy Kimmel Made Fun Of Him For Christmas 

Posted on by Hunter Walker

MyPillow pitchman and noted election conspiracist Mike Lindell is, in his own words, “on a Holiday tear right now!” 

As usual, Lindell is all worked up about voting machines and his thoroughly debunked idea that somehow the internet was used to manipulate these systems to steal the 2020 election from Donald Trump. However, over the long holiday weekend, Lindell also got excited about being mocked by late night television comedian Jimmy Kimmel and insisted he was not mad at all in multiple emails to his supporters.

“While our campaign to save America ramps up–we are also thankful to comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s latest attempt at humor–and his free publicity given to our great crusade to save AMERICA,” Lindell wrote in an email to his supporters on Saturday.

Kimmel lampooned Lindell earlier this month with a sketch that featured ace impressionist James Adomian nailing the MyPillow pitchman’s hoarse voice and refusal to accept Trump’s defeat. The sketch was styled as “Mike Lindell’s MyChristmas Spectacular,” a variety show that included appearances from real and imagined MAGA stars including Jeanine Pirro, the “QAnon shaman,” George Santos, and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), whose Golden Dukes-nominated “Beetlejuice” scandal made for a memorable punchline. As part of the show, the faux Lindell waits up all night for “rightful president” Trump, who never actually arrives. Following a heartwarming conversation with Kimmel, Lindell admits he feels Trump has been with him “all along,” in his heart and in the hearts of “all who still believe in the magic of Christmas” (and deranged magical thinking about voting machines). 

Lindell has been bombarding his fans with emails selling bedding and soliciting donations for his various conspiracy-related ventures, including the “Election Crime Bureau” and “Lindell Offense Fund.” He collected a slew of addresses from Trump diehards in August as he hosted what he variously dubbed “the most critical Election event we have ever had” and “a landmark Historical Summit.” During that momentous occasion, Lindell unveiled a plan to arm his fellow conspiracy theorists with drones to sniff out supposedly nefarious Wi-Fi connections in the vicinity of facilities involved in vote counting. 

Of course, officials at every level of government — including members of Trump’s own administration and other Republicans — have said there was no widespread fraud in the 2020 race. The idea of a Wi-Fi fueled plot is nonsensical because many election systems are not connected to the internet and incorporate hand recounts. And, of course, most populated areas of the country have nearby Wi-Fi connections, which are not evidence of any sort of illicit activity. 

Even though Kimmel’s sketch aired over two weeks ago, Lindell used his email list to send out at least two messages about it on Saturday and Sunday. In them, Lindell insisted “all of the conspiracies I touted are coming to pass!” He also declared the comedy bit was an example of media acknowledging “what the Lindell Offense Fund has said since day one: Machines are connected to the Internet and Machines can be hacked and Elections can be rigged!”

“In all seriousness, we’re excited to have the earned media–media we don’t pay for–and we’re happy to continue the conversation about rigged elections and stolen votes–no matter what the venue!” Lindell wrote. 

Check out Kimmel’s full sketch below and judge for yourself whether, in Lindell’s case, all publicity really is good publicity. 

Hands-Off Supreme Court Jeopardizes Trump Trial Date

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

What You Missed

Since last we visited, two significant developments in the march to hold Donald Trump accountable to the rule of law:

(i) The Supreme Court declined to fast-track Trump’s appeal of his claims of presidential immunity; and

(ii) Trump filed his appeal brief with the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, which will now get a first bite at the immunity apple.

Supreme Court Declines To Get Involved Now

With no public dissents or additional comment, the Supreme Court on Friday declined to bypass the appeals court and take up Trump’s immunity claims now. The most immediate impact was to jeopardize the March 2024 trial date of Trump on charges he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. In that context, there was little hopeful about the court’s decision, with one possible exception.

The lack of any dissent from the liberal justices suggests the possibility of some strategic understanding internally about how the court will handle the case going forward. That’s speculative though, and the upshot may simply be as grim as it gets: The federal judicial system is incapable of defending the rule of law or even itself from a criminal defendant determined to take it down.

All Eyes On DC Appeals Court

The Supreme Court’s decision shifted the focus to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, which already has the immunity appeal on an expedited schedule.

Trump filed his opening brief in the appeal Saturday. University of Texas law professor Lee Kovarsky has a detailed read of Trump’s latest arguments on immunity.

Special Counsel Jack Smith has a Dec. 30 deadline to file his response. Oral arguments are Jan. 9.

A trial date is still possible for Trump sometime between March and the November election, but the window is narrowing dramatically.

Still Awaiting Trump’s Appeal Of Colorado Decision To SCOTUS

Be looking this week for the first indications that Donald Trump is appealing his disqualification from the GOP primary ballot in Colorado to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Former Antonin Scalia clerk Adam Unikowsky offers his probabilities for how the Supreme Court will handle the Colorado Disqualification Clause case:

  • 5%: The Court denies certiorari or the case otherwise goes away before the Supreme Court decides it.
  • 40%: The Court reverses the Colorado Supreme Court, holding that, as a matter of law, Trump isn’t disqualified under Section 3.
  • 40%: The Court vacates the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision in a manner that leaves the door open to future Section 3 litigation.
  • 15%: The Court affirms the Supreme Court of Colorado.

Rule Of Law Under Siege

Law enforcement is investigating threats to Colorado’s Supreme Court justices after they disqualified Donald Trump from the GOP primary ballot.

Consider Yourself Warned

I’m starting to see the emergence of a certain flavor of DC-centric, “moderate,” pearl-clutching and hand-wringing about the Supreme Court taking the 14th Amendment Disqualification Clause out of Colorado that has in the past given ample cover to the high court to make horrendous decisions like Bush v. Gore.

It’s a fine line between the kind of “high politics” considerations that structurally and institutionally only the Supreme Court is in a position to take into account — and improperly allowing those considerations to trump other jurisprudential imperatives like the rule of law, precedence, and the modest work of deciding only the case before you.

This NYT op-ed by Steven Mazie and Stephen Vladeck assiduously walks that line but may trip over it with this paragraph:

A universe in which the court somehow splits the difference — for example, keeping Mr. Trump on the ballot while refusing to endorse (if not affirmatively repudiating) his conduct and spurning his kinglike claim to total immunity — could go a long way toward reducing the temperature of the coming election cycle. Such an outcome could also help restore at least some of the court’s credibility.

Starting with a preferred outcome and working backward toward a solution is not good judging, it’s not conservative or restrained, and it’s an open ticket to judicial overreach and mischief. I’ll have more to say on this in the coming days.

Distemper And Ill Will Toward Men

Donald Trump spreading that Christmas cheer:

THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN, LIED TO CONGRESS, CHEATED ON FISA, RIGGED A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ALLOWED MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, MANY FROM PRISONS & MENTAL INSTITUTIONS, TO INVADE OUR COUNTRY, SCREWED UP IN AFGHANISTAN, & JOE BIDEN’S MISFITS & THUGS, LIKE DERANGED JACK SMITH, ARE COMING AFTER ME, AT LEVELS OF PERSECUTION NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN OUR COUNTRY??? IT’S CALLED ELECTION INTERFERENCE. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Donald J. Trump, Dec. 24, 2023

The Perpetual Bullshit Machine

Mother Jones unpacks the emergence of a new batshit crazy conspiracy theory aimed at discrediting Special Counsel Jack Smith:

It claims that Jack Smith, the special counsel who is prosecuting Trump for his attempt to overturn the 2020 election and for his alleged swiping of classified documents, was part of a multimillion dollar extortion scheme when he was the chief prosecutor investigating and prosecuting war crimes in Kosovo. In the past two weeks, this unsubstantiated narrative has started popping up on fringe right-wing sites and social media posts. Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser and QAnonish MAGA champion, has promoted this tale. These allegations appear to be in the early phase of the right-wing transmission belt that propels false stories and conspiracy theories from less prominent platforms to more established conservative media and toward the mainstream—often facilitated by Republican members of Congress. 

Clarence Thomas’ ‘Extended Family’ Of Law Clerks

The NYT goes deep on Clarence Thomas’ network of former law clerks:

In the 32 years since Justice Thomas came through the fire of his confirmation hearings and onto the Supreme Court, he has assembled an army of influential acolytes unlike any other — a network of like-minded former clerks who have not only rallied to his defense but carried his idiosyncratic brand of conservative legal thinking out into the nation’s law schools, top law firms, the judiciary and the highest reaches of government.

2024 Ephemera

  • Wisconsin Supreme Court overturns GOP-favored legislative maps.
  • Trump makes demonizing immigrants a core message with ‘blood’ refrain.
  • Nevada GOP leaders indicted in pro-Trump ‘fake elector’ case still in charge of caucus planning.

New Arrest Warrant Issued For Ammon Bundy

A state judge in Idaho issued a new warrant for the arrest of right-wing extremist Ammon Bundy after he reportedly failed to show up for trial last week on contempt of court charges arising from a $52 million defamation judgment against him earlier this year by a local hospital. Bundy has been in hiding for days, but popped up in YouTube livestream late last week.

Written In The Wood

A 200-year-old ponderosa pine in southern Arizona tells the story of anthropogenic climate change.

Hang In There This Week

That insufferable pro-Trump uncle, your hopelessly conservative parents, your didactically liberal children — whatever your situation this holiday, Morning Memo will be on a normal schedule for the rest of this week to help you cope.

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