Trump Is About To Take A Big, Big Loss In The NY Fraud Case

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Lipstick On A Pig

The months-long civil fraud trial against Donald Trump and his business empire ended yesterday with a bomb threat and a dose of bombast in court from Trump himself. With closing arguments done, the judge set a deadline for himself of Jan. 31 to render a verdict.

But don’t let the flurry of Trump showmanship on the last day of the trial – making some of the closing argument himself, getting shut down after a few minutes by the judge, holding an impromptu news conference outside of the courtroom – obscure what’s happening here: Trump is about to lose and lose big.

If this had been a jury-tried case, Trump’s courtroom appearances, his outrageousness, and the showmanship would have been a wild card worth grappling with. But this was a judge-tried case, and the judge had already ruled against Trump on many key elements of New York Attorney General Letitia James’ case.

Trump is facing the very real prospect of hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties and being banned from the real estate business in New York for fraudulent business practices that went on for years. It will be a stunning though entirely deserved comedown for the man whose celebrity and political career was premised on being a high-flying NYC real estate developer.

The judge is no fool. He knows that he wasn’t the intended audience for Trump’s antics. Trump, no fool either, knows he’s going to lose. Everything about Trump’s feral display yesterday was misdirection, sleight of hand, and distraction from the devastating blow his biz empire is about to take.

The fact that Trump’s attacks on the judge, James, the case and everyone involved with it fits hand in glove with his broader jihad against the judicial system and those who would hold him to account doesn’t make this some ingenious campaign strategy. It just means he’s cornered and desperate to look in charge even as control spins away from him.

Everything Is Totally Fine

Trump’s Immunity Nonsense

Everyone is justifiably having a field day with how insincere, self-serving, and transactional Trump’s newfound love for presidential immunity is:

  • Politico: Trump’s latest about-face: He now says 2020 election was ‘long over’
  • NYT: Trump’s Argument for Immunity in 2024 Is the Opposite of His Stance in 2021
  • Flashback to 2020 (hattip):

President Donald Trump accused Attorney General William Barr on Monday of following a “double standard” by not following through with a criminal investigation into former President Barack Obama or Vice President Joe Biden.

Playing With Fire

Continuing with the theme of yesterday’s Morning Memo:

  • Jamelle Bouie: “[Trump] can use the threat of violence to make officials and ordinary election workers think twice about their decisions. And he can use the example of those Republicans who have crossed him as a warning to wavering lawmakers — to anyone who resists the force of his will.”
  • Zack Beauchamp: “For all these reasons, threats of violence are likely to be uniquely effective on Republicans when issued from their own base. The threats work, more than anything else, to discipline elected Republicans — to force them to toe whatever line the Trumpists want them to walk, or else.”
  • Chris Hayes on the “constant threats of violence and intimidation and harassment”:

Perfect

WaPo: Maryland Elections Board member arrested on Jan. 6 riot charges, resigns

‘Downright Disgraceful’

TPM’s Hunter Walker talks with former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn about how Jan. 6 deniers inspired him to run for Congress.

Introducing The ‘Preventing Private Paramilitary Activity Act’

Vice: Democrats Propose Bill to Neuter Militias

Mike Johnson Is Struggling Not To Be Kevin McCarthy

  • WSJ: GOP Holdouts Ousted Kevin McCarthy. Now Mike Johnson Feels the Heat.
  • TPM: Far-Right Confident Johnson Will Let Them Continue Hijacking Government
  • Politico: Johnson confronts biggest test yet: Whether to walk away from his own funding deal
  • WaPo: House Republican revolt scrambles plan to prevent government shutdown

Musk The Menace

Judd Legum:

This week, Elon Musk has repeatedly promoted false and misleading claims about voting to his 168 million followers on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter. Musk then used these erroneous claims to justify massive restrictions on voting in the United States, including eliminating early voting, abolishing most mail-in voting, and imposing new identification requirements.

The Politics Of Brutality

Fifteen GOP governors have opted out of letting their states participate in a new federal food assistance program intended to help needy families in the summer, affecting more than eight million children.

The Politics Of Brutality II

Texas Amps Up Its Border Confrontation With The Feds

The Justice Department filed a supplemental memo with the Supreme Court last night in the case where it’s trying to remove razor wire that was installed by Texas in the Rio Grande, alleging that the state has escalated its confrontation on the ground with the federal government over who has jurisdiction over the border. Details here:

US-Led Coalition Launches First Strikes In Yemen

  • WSJ: U.S.-Led Coalition Launches Strikes on Multiple Houthi Rebel Targets in Yemen
  • Bloomberg: US and UK Strike Yemen’s Houthis After Red Sea Ship Attacks
  • NYT: Houthis Vow to Respond After U.S. Leads Strikes in Yemen

Hate To See It: More Trouble For Wayne LaPierre

ProPublica: Secret Recording Shows NRA Treasurer Plotting to Conceal Extravagant Expenses Involving Wayne LaPierre

Hunter Biden Enters Not Guilty Plea In California

The tax fraud case against Hunter Biden that was filed after his plea agreement fell apart is set to go to trial June 20.

Failson Can’t Recognize Failure

Have A Good Weekend!

If you’re looking for something to do, American Fiction is that vanishing breed of film: small, thoughtful, and clever. Be lulled by Jeffrey Wright’s baritone and marvel at the great Leslie Uggams.

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Far-Right Confident Johnson Will Let Them Continue Hijacking Government

Hardline Republicans, who are throwing a literal House floor temper tantrum over Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) deal with Democratic leadership, emerged from a meeting with the speaker Thursday confident he’d soon hand over his spine.

Continue reading “Far-Right Confident Johnson Will Let Them Continue Hijacking Government”

Listen To This: The Year Of Bonehead Decisions

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Kate and Josh kick off 2024 by discussing oral arguments over Donald Trump’s immunity defense, eyebrow raising decision-making by Fulton County DA Fani Willis and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the upcoming early state primaries.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

‘Downright Disgraceful’ Jan. 6 Deniers Inspired A Capitol Police Officer To Run For Congress

On Jan. 6, 2021, as he realized the U.S. Capitol was being overwhelmed by rioters protesting former President Trump’s election loss, Harry Dunn strapped on a 20 pound steel chest plate, grabbed an M4 rifle, and joined the battle to keep the crowds back. Dunn, who was a Capitol Police officer, has been fighting ever since that day and is now attempting a run for Congress. 

Continue reading “‘Downright Disgraceful’ Jan. 6 Deniers Inspired A Capitol Police Officer To Run For Congress”

Biden Was Right

A couple of days ago I wrote “that the withdrawal from Afghanistan remains one of Biden’s shining moments even though I know absolutely no one agrees with me.” Since then I’ve gotten a steady stream of emails from TPM Readers saying, “No, there’re at least two of us!” So perhaps, in the words made famous by Arrested Development, there are dozens of us. In all seriousness, it’s good to hear. And I won’t ever stop believing this. As I wrote in that post

The United States remained in Afghanistan for ten years after anyone had any good explanation for why we were there. Obama wanted to leave. But he got rolled by the Pentagon. Biden knew that the only way to really leave was to leave. Someone had to bite the bullet. He bit that bullet and paid a big price and didn’t look back.

As I thought about this this morning, I wondered: does anyone really think today that it would be better if we still had a couple thousand U.S. troops in Afghanistan? Being completely out of the country is so obviously better that barely anyone would actually say this. Thus, the standard retort — that of course it was the right decision to get out, it just wasn’t handled well — is a dodge. The idea that you were ever going to completely withdraw from a country you’d A) been policing for two decades with a nominal government that B) had little ability to maintain itself without things getting ugly was a fantasy.

It’s a classic example of continuing to invest more in a failed investment not because there is any hope of getting a return but simply to put off ever having to write down the loss.

Continue reading “Biden Was Right”

Bomb Threat Reported At Home Of Trump Trial Judge

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Bomb Squad On The Scene

With closing arguments set for today in the New York civil fraud trial against Donald Trump and his biz empire, law enforcement was dispatched to the Long Island home of the judge for a reported bomb threat.

NYT:

A spokesman for the Nassau County police department confirmed that there was an investigation at the house of the judge, Arthur F. Engoron, who in several hours is expected to hear closing arguments in Mr. Trump’s case. Two people with knowledge of the matter said that the threat involved a bomb and that the bomb squad came to the house.

The latest threat to public servants involved in Trump-related cases comes after swatting attempts at the homes of Special Prosecutor Jack Smith and U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan.

But it’s part of a larger pattern which reaches back years: Election administrators vilified and hounded from their jobs over Trump’s false claims of election fraud; public health officials abused and threatened over COVID conspiracies and lies; law enforcement suddenly in the sights if they investigate Trump; librarians and school administrators targeted and ridiculed for doing their jobs.

Government employees have been on the front lines of this low-level conflict for literally years now. It is a hallmark of the Trump era. Their careers on the line. Their income in jeopardy. Their personal safety sometimes at risk. And, as we see this morning, in some cases their families and homes targeted.

Most of the rest of us are shielded from the reality of this conflict. That makes it feel remote and distant, something that happens to other people. We may not be easy targets, but government employees, especially low- and mid-level personnel, are vulnerable. And they’re being made to feel their vulnerability in real and direct ways.

The promise of Trump II is retribution against government employees at every level. It’s a corrosive and toxic environment which erodes independence of thought and action, undermines the measured and regular administration of public functions, scares people out of the government workforce, and encourages the worst of the worst.

It’s not a sustainable situation for an open and free democracy.

What A Joke

Donald Trump made a big show of wanting to deliver his own closing arguments today in the New York civil fraud trial against him and his biz empire – but then balked at the conditions laid down by the judge.

Trump’s Shell Game On Immunity

NYT: Trump’s Argument for Immunity in 2024 Is the Opposite of His Stance in 2021

Sometimes You Gotta Laugh

Huzzah!

Timothy Snyder:

Yet Americans who should know better are choosing fear over the Constitution, finding excuses to ignore what it says.  Indeed, they are choosing to fear the Constitution.  Far too many politicians and other media commentators respond to our present situation — a real insurrectionist who has tried to overthrow the Constitution while in office, a real Constitutional ban on insurrectionists running for office a second time — by saying that it is the Constitution that must yield. 

Quote Of The Day

Josh Marshall:

[Trump’s] evil and he wants to diminish and degrade anyone and everyone who challenges his rule of the GOP. All the rest are caught between wanting to defeat Trump by somehow being his friend and never criticizing him and hoping through some inexplicable alchemy they will defeat him by becoming him, replacing him. Did you get that? No wonder they seem clumsy and inept, constantly stepping on their own toes. Imagine a man trying to run in three directions at once and doing it with any grace or dignity. Sad!

2024 Ephemera

  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), whose long-shot run for president always seemed intended primarily to extended his viability as a cable news talking head, dropped out of the race Wednesday, not even lasting until the Iowa caucus.
  • South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) faced off in a surreal one-on-one debate in Iowa over who should be the second place finisher behind Donald Trump, who did not participate.
  • In an appearance on Fox News, Donald Trump teased his vice presidential pick like a chintzy product launch: “I mean, I know who it’s going to be.”

Vindication

A Florida state prosecutor was improperly removed from office by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a federal appeals court ruled Thursday. DeSantis was retaliating against Democratic prosecutor Andrew Warren for his public comments opposing criminalizing abortion and for his reform-minded approach to his job. The appellate court stopped short of reinstating Warren but sent the case back to the trial court for further proceedings.

The House GOP Is Starting To Eat Itself Again

With a tiered government shutdown looming, Speaker Mike Johnson is struggling to hold his 2-seat majority together to pass needed funding bills.

Fired Up

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Secret Recording Shows NRA Treasurer Plotting to Conceal Extravagant Expenses Involving Wayne LaPierre

This article first appeared at ProPublica and The Trace.

ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

The Trace is a nonprofit newsroom covering gun violence in America. Sign up for its newsletters here.

At a meeting in June 2009, the treasurer of the National Rifle Association worked out a plan to conceal luxury expenses involving its chief executive, Wayne LaPierre, according to audio of the meeting obtained by The Trace and ProPublica. The recording was unknown to New York’s attorney general, who is pursuing the NRA and LaPierre over a range of alleged financial misdeeds. It shows, in real time, the NRA’s treasurer enlisting the group’s longtime public relations firm to obfuscate the extravagant costs.

Captured on tape is talk of LaPierre’s desire to avoid public disclosure of his use of private jets as well as concern about persistent spending at the Beverly Hills Hotel by a PR executive and close LaPierre adviser.

During the meeting, which took place in the Alexandria, Virginia, office of PR firm Ackerman McQueen, executives agreed that Ackerman would issue a Platinum American Express card to Tyler Schropp, the new head of the NRA’s nascent advancement division, which was responsible for bringing in high-dollar contributions from wealthy donors. Ackerman would then cover the card’s charges and bill them back to the NRA under nondescript invoices.

“It’s really the limo services and the hotels that I worry about,” William Winkler, Ackerman’s chief financial officer, said. “He’s going to need it for the hotels especially.”

The use of the Ackerman American Express card, according to a report by New York Attorney General Letitia James’ expert witness on nonprofits, skirted internal controls that existed to ensure proper disclosure and regulatory compliance and to prevent “fraud and abuse” at the nonprofit. As a result, outside of a tiny group of NRA insiders, everyone was in the dark about years of charges by Schropp — who is still the head of the nonprofit’s advancement division — for luxury accommodations, including regular sojourns to the Four Seasons and the Ritz-Carlton. The NRA, in response, said the report was “rife with inadmissible factual narratives, impermissible interpretations and inferences, and improper factual and legal conclusions.”

James’ investigation into the NRA began in 2019, after The Trace, in partnership with The New Yorker, and later with ProPublica, reported on internal accounting documents that indicated a culture of self-dealing at the gun-rights group. In 2020, James sued the NRA and LaPierre, who presided over the organization for three decades, over claims of using nonprofit resources for personal enrichment, luxury travel and bloated contracts for insiders, allegations that the parties deny. The attorney general is seeking financial restitution from the defendants and was until last week petitioning for LaPierre’s removal, which was preempted on Friday when LaPierre announced he would resign at the end of January.

The attorney general’s office was unaware of the audio until it was contacted by The Trace and ProPublica and did not respond to a request for comment.

Ackerman McQueen and Winkler declined to comment. None of the other individuals mentioned in this story responded to requests for comment. The gun-rights group’s attorney, William A. Brewer III, said in an email: “The tape has not been authenticated by the NRA but, if real, we are shocked by its content. The suggested contents would confirm what the NRA has said all along: there were certain ‘insiders’ and vendors who took advantage of the Association. If true, it is an example of a shadowy business arrangement — one that was not brought to the attention of the NRA board.”

In the recording, Woody Phillips, who was the NRA’s top financial official from 1993 to 2018 and is also a defendant in James’ suit, did not say why the unusual credit card arrangement was necessary. But at one point, he indicated that LaPierre — whose public persona was that of a populist firebrand — had concerns about the optics of using NRA funds for travel on a private jet.

“We just have to be careful because Wayne wants to get through this whole year saying he hasn’t used private aircraft,” Phillips said. In that year’s tax filings, he explained, nonprofits, for the first time, would be required to disclose whether they paid for chartered flights for any of the numerous executives and officials listed in the documents. LaPierre, Phillips explained, “just doesn’t want to be seen getting off the plane — anywhere.”

“He Just Doesn’t Want to Be Seen Getting Off the Plane — Anywhere”
Woody Phillips, the NRA’s top financial official for nearly a decade, discusses Wayne LaPierre’s concerns about wanting to avoid disclosing the use of private jets. Credit:Obtained by The Trace and ProPublica

In the opening statement by Phillips’ attorney on Jan. 9, he said that the NRA’s political activities caused “real and serious” security concerns. To that end, his client always “acted in good faith,” he said, and the questionable arrangements Phillips helped devise were not due to “a desire for secrecy” or “to keep information from the NRA and its board. But for confidentiality.”

LaPierre’s attorney spoke of his client’s unflagging devotion to the NRA and dedication to his job. “Was his thinking always right?” he asked. “No. Is perfection a standard for leading a not-for-profit? No.”

James’ complaint states that LaPierre “spent millions of dollars of the NRA’s charitable assets for private plane trips for himself and his family.” In a 2021 deposition, LaPierre said that “NRA security has a policy against me flying commercial because of threats,” and that the requirement had been in place for a decade or more.

In 2009, the NRA did indeed check the box on its tax filing indicating it had used “first-class or chartered travel.” The NRA’s explanation, which the Internal Revenue Service requires nonprofits to provide, was that “charter travel was used on occasions involving multiple events when reduced airline schedules precluded other options.” The description became the NRA’s standard template going forward. Other nonprofits, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, disclose the names of executives who use the luxury service.

At the meeting, according to a source who asked not to be named for fear of professional retribution, Phillips, the NRA’s sole representative in attendance, was joined by Melanie Montgomery, an executive vice president at Ackerman McQueen, and Hillary Farrell, then the company’s chief operating officer. Winkler, from Ackerman, attended via videoconference.

The recording shows how the NRA used Ackerman, which devised the nonprofit’s most prominent messaging campaigns, as an extension of itself. The decadeslong relationship ended in acrimony and lawsuits. After evidence of the NRA’s self-dealing became public in 2019, the NRA and Ackerman accused each other of financial misconduct, with the gun-rights group claiming that the firm filed fraudulent invoices. In 2022, the two entities reached a settlement in which the NRA paid Ackerman $12 million.

In the recording of the 2009 meeting, Winkler said he was told that Phillips wanted to route Schropp’s pricey expenses through Ackerman McQueen, filing them as a “travel job,” which was billed to clients with an invoice that was devoid of detail.

“Well that’s easy,” Winkler announced. “As far as I’m concerned, we can give Tyler an Ackerman Amex. And do it that way.”

“Oh well that’s the way to do it then,” Montgomery replied.

“Yeah,” Phillips agreed. “That’s the easiest way to do it, and for the most part, it’s going to be stuff that Gayle books because it’s stuff with Wayne.” (Gayle Stanford was a consultant who handled LaPierre’s travel.)

“That aspect of it’s very easy,” Winkler said.

Phillips later said of Schropp, “Most of what he’ll do, he’ll do like he does here, where it’ll just be he’ll fill out an expense report for us, he’ll have cards for that too.”

Montgomery responded: “Woody just asked him, ‘Can you do some, you know, that goes through the NRA system, then just your high, well, the stuff you do with Wayne, do through Ackerman.’”

“That Aspect of It’s Very Easy”
Melanie Montgomery, a vice president at the NRA’s PR firm, describes how Phillips would like to route high-end expenses involving LaPierre through the company in order to obfuscate them.

<<enter caption here>> on April 28, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia.
ATLANTA, GA – APRIL 28: President Donald Trump is greated by Wayne LaPierre (R), executive vice president and CEO of the NRA, and NRA chief lobbiest Chris Cox (L) during the NRA-ILA’s Leadership Forum at the 146th NRA Annual Meetings & Exhibits on April 28, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. The convention is the largest annual gathering for the NRA’s more than 5 million members. Trump is the first president to address the annual meetings since Ronald Reagan. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Before Schropp took over the NRA’s advancement division in 2009, he was a vice president at Ackerman, where he worked directly with LaPierre, who recruited him to the NRA. “We were great, great friends and spent a lot of time together,” Schropp later said in a deposition. “And I think we had a mutual respect for each other.”

At the meeting, there was some confusion about whether Schropp already had an Ackerman American Express card. Winkler settled the matter by calling a colleague.

“Does Tyler Schropp have an Amex?” Winkler asked. “Get him one.” He added that it should be a “Platinum.”

Schropp would use the card extensively in the years to come. The lawsuit alleges, “He routinely stayed in suites costing over $1,500 a night.” In addition to the Four Seasons and the Ritz-Carlton, he was partial to the Beverly Hills Hotel and the St. Regis.

In a 2021 deposition, Schropp said that he had the card for “donor privacy reasons, and Wayne LaPierre privacy and security reasons.” Phillips has not addressed the matter in unsealed testimony, while LaPierre, for his part, said in a 2019 deposition, “I was aware that — from our treasurer’s office that the advancement expenses, some of them, were — were under Ackerman McQueen,” a practice that was stopped a decade later, when, he said, the NRA “self-corrected under New York state law.”

At another point during the 2009 meeting, Phillips brought up Tony Makris, an Ackerman executive who worked closely with LaPierre as an adviser. The two were good friends. Makris had served as the actor Charlton Heston’s personal and political adviser while Heston was president of the NRA in the late ’90s and early 2000s.

“In the case of Tony, now that he’s married, does anyone know what he’s doing about the Beverly Hills Hotel?” asked Phillips, who was looking for ways to save cash. “Because that would cut out a lot of this cost if he’s not doing that. I think without it being a special occasion, we’d have a hard time paying for that.”

Makris was responsible for recruiting conservative celebrities, like Tom Selleck, into the NRA’s fold.

“Does Anyone Know What He’s Doing About the Beverly Hills Hotel?”
Phillips inquires about LaPierre adviser Tony Makris’ stays at the Beverly Hills Hotel on the gun-rights group’s dime. Credit:Obtained by The Trace and ProPublica

Phillips then mentioned Rick Tedrick, the NRA’s managing director of finance, a job he still holds.

“And I know Rick’s going to be watching that,” Phillips continued, “not that he’d say anything or do anything.”

Winkler chimed in: “What you guys need to do is give me the guidance with Tony. Because you know what will happen. It will go full circle, right back to Wayne.”

Listen to the Full Meeting Audio Here
The 2009 NRA finance meeting with officials from its PR firm Credit:Obtained by The Trace and ProPublica

Christie Bows Out on a Rake To the Face

This hot mic story-lette with Chris Christie perfectly captures the current GOP: anguished maneuvering and contretemps all amounting to more or less nothing, Trump eagerly feasting on his rivals’ clumsy mistakes, all of it hilarious and yet leading to a very dark place.

If you didn’t see this yet, just before announcing the end of his campaign — kinda/sorta to clear the way for Nikki Haley — this happened

Mr. Christie caused a stir before his remarks when he was caught on a hot microphone candidly discussing two rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, before making the announcement.

“She’s going to get smoked, and you and I both know it,” Mr. Christie could be heard saying of Ms. Haley. “She’s not up to this.” He added of Mr. DeSantis: “DeSantis called me, petrified.”

This is all 110% true.

Continue reading “Christie Bows Out on a Rake To the Face”

Johnson Forced To Beg For Trump’s Mercy

More than a dozen House Republicans voted against procedural steps needed to begin consideration of three unrelated bills this afternoon in protest of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) deal with Democratic leadership to cap upcoming spending bill totals at $1.7 trillion.

Continue reading “Johnson Forced To Beg For Trump’s Mercy”

Appellate Court Keeps Alive Case Of ‘Reform’ Prosecutor Suspended By DeSantis 

Federal appellate court judges kept the case of former state attorney Andrew Warren (D) alive Wednesday, prolonging the fight of one of the prosecutors Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) suspended for various “woke” offenses.

Continue reading “Appellate Court Keeps Alive Case Of ‘Reform’ Prosecutor Suspended By DeSantis “