Boebert Hoping for Soft Landing in Nextdoor District!

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I love this story. Lauren Boebert has apparently seen the writing on the wall and now realizes she can’t be elected in her congressional district, Colorado’s 3rd. Too much interrupting Joe Biden’s State of the Unions, too many Beetlejuice handies, too many bonkers TV appearances. So she’s decided to run not in her own district but in the neighboring 4th district, which unlike the 3rd is solidly Republican. That district is available because incumbent Ken Buck is retiring.

She just announced the move in a Facebook video post this evening.

If you watch the video she rattles off a bunch of mumbojumbo about how her switch is right for her family, for the “movement,” for Colorado, whatever that means. But everybody can see that it’s just the right and possibly only move for her to stay in Congress. But don’t assume Boebert can just waltz into this seat. There’s always a long line of ambitious pols ready to move up the ladder when a safe district comes open. And there are already at least four Republicans from the 4th district who are running to replace Buck. The Colorado Sun got this statement from one of them, state Rep. Richard Holtorf: “If you can’t win in your home you can’t win here. She knew she’d lose in her own district and I’ll show her that’ll she’ll lose here too.”

I know nothing about Holtorf. But he’s right about this. Boebert is damaged goods. If she was from the 4th district, the heavy Republican tilt of the district might allow her to win reelection even with all her baggage. But Republicans from the 4th don’t want throwaways from the 3rd. She’s an embarrassment for the great majority of voters. Her fundraising has also been terribly anemic. You’d think a star of the right-wing crazy circuit might be able to draw on that world to raise money. But she hasn’t. Even in MAGA/Freedom Caucus land they’re just not that into her.

The only down side to this is that it may well lose the Democrats a decent shot at a pick up. What’s always been odd about Boebert is that unlike virtually all the others in the House GOP crazy caucus she’s not in a strongly GOP district. That’s why she’s in this situation. But it’s still a GOP district. Cook says it’s R+7. If Republicans can field a normal conservative they can probably hold the seat.

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