The true believers were buzzing.
Continue reading “The ‘Nuclear’ Election Conspiracy Doc Trump Cited In Court Is A Sign Of Things To Come”Too Much Winning
Truly remarkable. After a year of threatening, House Republicans finally voted to impeach DHS Secretary Mayorkas. And they failed. It’s just basic vote counting. And they failed. Then their standalone Israel bill failed too.
I’m a little unclear on what comes next. Steve Scalise was apparently not there because of his on-going treatment for cancer. It was unclear whether Rep. Al Green would be there but he was. He was apparently wheeled in from the hospital. I’d heard suggestions that they’ll hold another vote. But unless I’m missing something adding Scalise’s vote won’t change the result.
Doesn’t really matter. It’s the pratfalls that are the most amazing part of this.
Late Update: Apparently one additional Republican flipped from Yes to No after it became clear the impeachment would fail. This is procedural move which allows the vote to be held again. It also means that the “real” vote was 215-215, rather than 214-216. Thus Scalise returning and voting Yes would put it over the top.
Texas GOPers’ Border Cosplay Becomes Target For Violent Extremists And Grifters
A Tennessee man was arrested on gun charges late last week after the FBI alleged that he was scheming to violently attack immigrants and Border Patrol agents at the southern border.
While the man, Paul Faye of Montgomery County, Tennessee, had allegedly been plotting a potential attack for the past year, he was spurred on by talk of an “invasion” at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to the FBI — the very rhetoric Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has been using publicly to justify his standoff with the federal government there.
Continue reading “Texas GOPers’ Border Cosplay Becomes Target For Violent Extremists And Grifters”What Does Today’s Immunity Decision Mean For Trump’s Delay Strategy?
Tuesday’s long-awaited ruling from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals roundly rejected Donald Trump’s claim that presidential immunity barred his Jan. 6 criminal trial from going forward.
Continue reading “What Does Today’s Immunity Decision Mean For Trump’s Delay Strategy?”Wow
Okay, this is getting … well, interesting? It’s now 100% clear the border deal is dead. In my first post an hour or so ago it was 98% dead. The ambiguity has now been removed. That’s no big surprise.
What’s at least a bit surprising is the next move. Republicans are now at least saying that Plan B is to strip out all the border stuff and leave in the aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. But the key to remember is that that is how we got here in the first place. Democrats were trying to move an aid bill and Republicans said no aid without a border crackdown. Democrats at first refused linkage but eventually gave way. Then they negotiated this border deal. Now Senate Republicans, at least for the moment, are saying they’ll go back to the aid bill they refused if it didn’t address the border.
LOL.
Continue reading “Wow”Who Is the Operator Behind the NH/Biden Voter Suppression Calls?
New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella announced today that Deep Fake voter suppression robocalls aimed at dissuading voters from voting in last months Democratic primary have been traced to a Texas-based firm called Life Corporation, owned by a man named Walter Monk. The calls used a voice like President Biden’s and told voters not to “waste” their vote in the primary, implying that you could vote in the primary or the general election but not both.
Monk seems to have a long and pretty sordid history of low-rent robocall type operations, but at least on first pass not a clear history of involvement in politics.
Continue reading “Who Is the Operator Behind the NH/Biden Voter Suppression Calls?”Epic Senate Border Bill Post-Mortem/Wraithing Update
The big, big news of the morning is of course the D.C. appellate decision that Donald Trump has no immunity as a former president. But I wanted to briefly revisit the half-day life of the Senate bipartisan border deal that collapsed last night in the face of Trump’s demands.
There’s a bit more to it that I wanted to walk you through. Not a lot more. But a bit more. And those bits have some significance.
After the bill was released, House GOP leaders repeatedly insisted it was absolutely positively dead in the House. The very transparent aim of these statements was that they wanted their Senate Republican colleagues to kill it in the Senate. Because the truth is that it’s not at all clear it was dead in the House if it was allowed to get a vote. So the thinking from the House GOP was: you’re going to put us in a very tough position if you pass the bill and send it to us. So kill it in the Senate first. At least for now, that’s just what their Senate colleagues did.
Continue reading “Epic Senate Border Bill Post-Mortem/Wraithing Update”READ: Trump Not Immune From Prosecution, DC Circuit Rules
Donald Trump is not immune from prosecution for his efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 presidential election, the D.C. Circuit said in a Tuesday ruling.
Continue reading “READ: Trump Not Immune From Prosecution, DC Circuit Rules”Trump Is Doing To The GOP What He Wants To Do To America
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
Beware The Perils Of Schadenfreude
I want to return to what will be a recurring theme this year: Donald Trump’s total takeover of the Republican Party as a precursor to what he wants to do to America.
For the center-left, there’s an abundance of schadenfreude watching Trump humiliate, demean, and marginalize any Republican who opposes him. The ritualistic dignity loss carries an amusing undertone, especially when the target had already prostrated themselves at the altar of Trump, to no avail.
I enjoy it in a way, too, so I’m not scolding here. But the truth is that Trump’s consolidation of the GOP as a far-right party is already accomplished. He did that in his first term. What we’re witnessing now is his conversion of it from a political party into a tool of his personal political power. He wants it to be obedient to him, to serve him, to vanquish his enemies internal and external, to be an extension of himself. I’m not sure we’ve seen before the complete absorption of a major U.S. political party into a cult of its leader’s personality.
The WaPo has a story up this morning on Republican fears that they will be the targets of Trump’s promised retribution if he is re-elected. You should read it. It’s an important story. But what’s happening on the Hill right now is, in its own way, a far better measure of what Trump is doing to the GOP than the vague, contingent fears of what he might do to Republicans down the road.
Trump has demanded loyalty on the border issue that he is making a centerpiece of his campaign, and Republicans have fallen in line with remarkable speed, ditching months of negotiations in which they got much of what they asked for. Trump has humbled not just backbenchers or vulnerable incumbents, but Mitch McConnell himself.
To those who argue this isn’t new, that Trump has been doing this to Hill Republicans for eight years now, I can only say that all the reporting over the past few months points to a Trump demanding whole new levels of blind loyalty while amassing a coterie of sycophants to serve as enforcers within the party and ultimately within the federal government. A primary goal of Trump II is to eliminate the barriers that constrained Trump I.
Trump’s plan is to hitch this cult of personality to the powers of the office of the presidency and run roughshod over the rule of law and any person or thing that stands in his way, including the co-equal branches of government, the states, and our allies abroad. The fact that he’s doing it first to his ostensible allies in the GOP should be a bright red flashing light of what is to come.
Ukraine-Border Package Deal Collapses
Senate Republicans backed away from the Ukraine funding-border package so fast, it set a land speed record for crawfishing.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is desperate to pass Ukraine funding, gave the greenlight to filibuster the bill he had just allowed to be negotiated. It’s so bad that even the top Republican negotiator, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), said he would vote against proceeding to a vote on his own handiwork.
With Senate Republicans running for cover and the House GOP loudly proclaiming the bill DOA, the whole enterprise seems quite doomed.
I’m not sure it’s fair to call anything a “deal” when one side of the negotiation can’t deliver the support it purported to have. The whole exercise becomes surreal. And so here we are.
Bogus Impeachment Of Mayorkas Expected Today
In the absence of actual governing (see above), the House GOP gets back to its performative bullying with an expected impeachment vote today against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas – despite the absence of any high crimes or misdemeanors.
Trump Jan. 6 Trial Remains In Limbo
Still nothing on immunity from the DC Circuit Court of Appeals. Meanwhile, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan indicated in open court that she might still be able to try the case over the summer
With the March trial date gone now and the immunity appeal dragging on, squeezing the trial in before the election gets harder with each passing day. But the March trial date always had a little cushion, with the possibility it could be pushed back to the summertime.
For her part Chutkan yesterday sounded prepared to cancel an August trip abroad if necessary for a new trial date.
Welp …
Four convicted Jan. 6 rioters are running for Congress this cycle.
Project Veritas Settles Lawsuit Over Bogus Voter Fraud Claim
NBC News: “Conservative provocateur James O’Keefe and his former organization Project Veritas have settled a lawsuit filed by a Pennsylvania postmaster after the group spread a Postal Service worker’s false claims of voter fraud during the 2020 presidential election.”
2024 Ephemera
- In the face of Trump’s vitriol, Nikki Haley seeks Secret Service protection.
- Democrats invoke George Santos in last-minute ad buy for his empty NY seat.
- Why Trump and Nikki Haley won’t appear on the same ballot in Nevada.
The Travails Of Lauren Boebert
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) granted a temporary restraining order against her ex-husband.
The Threat Of A Far-Right EU May Be For Real
In 2024, the right-wing surge in the polls seems bigger and bolder, with one predicting the nationalist right and far right could pick up nearly a quarter of seats in the European Parliament in June.
Even if the center right — currently tipped to come first in the election — refuses to form a governing coalition with ever more powerful firebrand fringe parties, there’s still a significant chance the far right will, for the first time, be able to influence Europe’s policy agenda. That will enable it to threaten the EU’s sacred values on rule of law and human rights, and block or even overturn major green and climate laws.
EU To Unveil Ambitious New Emissions Goal
Reuters: “The European Commission is poised to recommend on Tuesday the EU reduces its net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040…”
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Nevada Republicans’ Caucus Adds Chaos And Confusion To The State’s Presidential Primary
This article first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.
When Sarah Lee Hooper’s mail-in ballot for Nevada’s presidential primary arrived last month, the Las Vegas Republican was utterly confused.
The candidate she wanted to vote for, Vivek Ramaswamy, wasn’t included. Neither were Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and, most notably, former President Donald Trump. The only name she recognized was former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
“What the heck? This is weird,” she remembered thinking. “Are they trying to convince people Nikki is the only option?”
A quick internet search turned up the answer: The Nevada Republican Party opted to eschew the state-run presidential primary on Feb. 6, in favor of running its own caucus two days later, which will decide who wins Nevada’s delegates to the national GOP convention. Presidential contenders who participate in the primary are prohibited by the party from also being candidates in the caucus.
While legal, the party’s decision to host a competing nominating contest in the state has confused and angered GOP voters.
Hooper had no idea there would also be a caucus or that Ramaswamy opted to participate in it instead of the primary before dropping out of the race.
“If you don’t want me to be a conspiracy theorist, then be transparent,” Hooper said. “Send me all of the information at once.”
Since Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election, supporters have cultivated an ecosystem of confusion around election processes through unfounded claims of voter fraud, demands for paper ballots and hand counts, and state-by-state efforts to subvert the 2020 results.
Leaders of the caucus effort are among those who tried to keep Trump in power. Three caucus overseers face felony charges for their roles in trying to overturn the 2020 election. Others running the caucus have been on the vanguard of those pushing unfounded election fraud allegations in the state.
These Republicans claim the caucus will serve as a model for how to run a more secure election — a claim disputed by election experts who note the drastic differences between a caucus, which attracts a fraction of the electorate to decide a single race, and elections, where many more voters cast ballots for local, state and federal offices.
The primary election is run by state election officials and adheres to Nevada’s voting laws — which allow for mail-in ballots, early voting and same-day registration. The Nevada Republican Party’s rules for its caucus reflect some GOP leaders’ efforts to limit voting. Participation requires registering as a Republican 30 days in advance, arriving at a set location and time, and presenting identification.
The confusion created about how elections work, including fraud allegations and now around how Nevada will choose who it backs in the Republican primary, has provided fertile ground for conspiracy theories and misinformation to take hold, experts say, causing a greater share of voters to distrust election results and democratic institutions.
“It does make the misinformation environment more dangerous,” said Gowri Ramachandran, deputy director of elections and government for the Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program. “These information gaps about voting, how it works, that sort of thing, can get filled in by incorrect information.”
“It’s clear from Jan. 6 that when that kind of misinformation spreads, it has a negative impact on people’s trust in elections and willingness to abide by the results,” she added. “It’s had a negative effect on democracy over the years.”
Confusion Over Competing Contests
When primary ballots absent Trump’s name began hitting mailboxes, Republicans across the state reacted with angry bewilderment.
Some thought he had been kicked off the ballot by a court because of his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, as happened in a Colorado case that is now pending before the U.S. Supreme Court. (A judge in Nevada rejected a similar challenge.) Others latched on to a false rumor that an inept campaign staffer forgot to file paperwork to get Trump on the ballot. Voters also wondered whether they could participate in both contests, or if casting a primary ballot and caucusing would constitute an illegal attempt to vote twice. (Nevada’s attorney general and secretary of state have assured voters they are free to participate in both.)
“I haven’t heard anybody who is happy with this unless they are with the state party and the county parties,” said Assemblywoman Danielle Gallant, R-Las Vegas, who has spent recent weeks explaining the situation to her constituency of mostly older voters.
The Nevada Republican Party’s decision to force candidates to forgo the primary if they wanted to be included in the caucus will likely hand the state’s 26 convention delegates to the former president. (At this point only one other obscure candidate remains in the caucuses.) It also foreclosed on any of Trump’s opponents building momentum from a strong showing in the state’s primary even as the field has shrunk since Iowa and New Hampshire, leaving Haley and a handful of lesser-known contenders.
Trump’s allies in the state, including Nevada’s popular Republican governor, Joe Lombardo, have urged GOP voters who participate in the primary to mark “none of these candidates” on the ballot rather than vote for a candidate. They hope to avoid Haley emerging with a larger vote total in the primary than Trump receives in the caucus, a possibility because more voters are expected to cast a ballot in the primary than attend the caucus.
In a Jan. 27 campaign visit to Las Vegas, Trump urged supporters to skip the primary entirely, describing it as a “con job” and a “meaningless event.” The caucus, he said, “is the right way and the legitimate way.”
“Don’t go on Tuesday, Feb. 6,” he told the crowd. “Don’t do it. Don’t use the mail-in ballot.”
“We Will Deliver You 100% of the Delegates”
Because of the primary-caucus confusion, candidates and the national political press have largely ignored Nevada’s “First in the West” contests despite the state’s early spot on the presidential nominating calendar. Trump is the only candidate to visit the state more than once since August.
Democrats have worked since 2007 to establish Nevada as an important early primary state. The effort was spearheaded by the late U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., who used caucuses as a party-building exercise. Since then, both parties have held early caucuses with varying success at making them relevant and competitive.
A couple of years back, that looked to be changing. With the caucus process coming under fire for hindering participation, the Nevada Legislature passed a law in 2021 to create this year’s presidential preference election. Although that effort was led by Democratic lawmakers, Republicans had tried years earlier without success to swap the caucus for a primary.
The Nevada GOP rejects the notion that by holding a caucus it has rigged this year’s contest for the former president. But Trump has been actively preparing to secure the nomination for the past year, including courting party insiders across the country. Those efforts extended to Nevada. Early last year he wooed GOP leaders — including Nevada Republican Chairman Michael McDonald, National Committeeman Jim DeGraffenreid and Bruce Parks, chairperson of the second-largest county party — at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
McDonald, DeGraffenreid and Jim Hindle are under indictment for acting as fraudulent electors for Trump in his effort to overturn the 2020 election — charges to which they’ve pleaded not guilty and are arguing to have dropped. Hindle, as Storey County clerk, is responsible for administering elections, putting him in the novel position of overseeing parts of both the primary and the caucus.
“I’m just doing the job I was elected to do,” Hindle said.
Despite claims of neutrality, McDonald has referred to Trump as the “next president of the United States.” At Trump’s January rally, McDonald stated his intentions more explicitly, referring to Trump simply as “the president.”
“When I talked to the president, I said, ‘I guarantee you Nevada will show up and we will deliver you 100% of the delegates for the state of Nevada to Donald J. Trump,’” he said.
While the caucus favors Trump, the party was transparent with Republican voters and GOP presidential candidates in creating it, McDonald argued.
McDonald blamed the state’s lack of a voter identification requirement for the party’s decision to run a caucus, saying Republican voters don’t trust the system without it.
Parks, chairperson of the party in Washoe County, home to Reno, has also been a leading voice in promoting unfounded election fraud allegations. Under his leadership, the county party adopted a resolution in 2022 declaring Joe Biden’s presidency to be illegitimate. Trump endorsed Parks in his reelection bid for county party chair last year, which Parks described as “one of the proudest moments of my life.”
In an interview with ProPublica, Parks said the party’s central committee decided not to participate in Nevada’s new presidential preference primary election because it wants to demonstrate what he contends is the proper way to run an election: required identification, paper ballots and hand-counting with results reported on the same day.
“There was much discussion — the pros and cons were weighed and measured — and in the end, the people decided we are going to do a caucus because it is more secure and more transparent than a universal mail-in system that does not require ID,” he said.
“Anybody who wants to observe is welcome to,” he said before catching himself. “Let me rephrase that: Anybody who is a Republican and can participate in the process is welcome to observe.”
Until ProPublica raised the issue with the state party, Parks said he wouldn’t allow the news media into Washoe County sites. Now, he said he will allow a few reporters into a single caucus site. McDonald said each county’s chairperson decides whether reporters can observe the proceedings. In the past, reporters have not been barred from observing caucuses held by either party in Nevada.
When asked why the GOP was changing its policy, Parks said, “For obvious reasons. There seems to be a shortage of honest reporters. We’re not going to open the doors and allow a particular narrative to be put out there that is not truthful. That is just not going to happen.”
Anyone who disagrees with the way the caucuses are being run can register with the party and keep an eye on things themselves, he said. “You want to make sure everything is above board? Get involved. Most importantly, change your registration and become a Republican,” he said.
Counting caucus results is not the same as counting election results, Ramachandran said. Hand-counting an election with hundreds of thousands of voters and dozens of races is neither efficient nor accurate.
“It’s really important when people are looking at those issues not to make the mistake of comparing apples to oranges,” she said.
Unknown Impact on the General Election
How the confusion and resulting disinformation from the presidential nominating process will influence general-election voter behavior is difficult to forecast. Ramachandran said it’s challenging to study how disinformation affects turnout.
“It’s hard to know who’s been subjected to that confusion or has become susceptible to misinformation, and it’s really hard to tie that to impact on turnout or specific candidates,” she said.
Gallant, who is running for reelection to the Assembly this year, isn’t so sure. Beliefs about unfounded voter-fraud accusations kept Republican voters home in 2020, she said, describing it as “oops, we screwed up.” Polling has backed that up, with surveys showing claims of fraud have made Republicans less likely to vote.
“We’ve done a lot of reeducation around that,” Gallant said, referencing the national party’s “Bank Your Vote” campaign that now encourages Republicans to vote early and by mail.
Jeremy Hughes, a Republican political consultant who is not involved in any of the presidential campaigns this year, said too much is being made over the caucus confusion.
“Donald Trump would have won the primary and he will win the caucus, so the mode of voting isn’t going to matter,” he said. “I have zero concern with it affecting voting behaviors.”