Will Bannon Get A Special Trump Family Prison Visit Too?

Justice Department prosecutors on Tuesday asked the judge who presided over former Trump White House strategist and far-right conspiracy theorist Steve Bannon’s contempt of Congress case to order Bannon to begin serving his prison sentence.

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Musing That Racism Isn’t As Bad As It Was, 5th Circuit Mulls Further Neutering Voting Rights Act

Conservatives on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals occasionally sounded like Fox News talking heads Tuesday as they weighed whether coalitions composed of multiple minority groups are protected under the Voting Rights Act.

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Is Biden in ‘Denial’ about the Polls?

Axios has a new piece out today with the headline: Biden’s Polling Denial. It’s not spin, the article says. The President and his top advisors actually don’t believe his bad poll numbers. “That bedrock belief has informed Biden’s largely steady-as-she-goes campaign,” says Axios. The article notes yesterday’s NYT-Siena poll of swing states and another recent Bloomberg set of swing state polls as examples of bad polling numbers the White House refuses to believe, before then shifting gears to note that other polls actually show him doing significantly better.

The factual questions here aren’t terribly complicated and they’re not really the reason I note this article or write this post. Most polls currently show Biden just behind Trump in a tight race. Others show him either tied or just ahead. And there is a theory of the election that those polls, with a greater emphasis on high propensity voters and the concentrating effect of the final months of the campaign, will put Biden on top in November. I’ve tried to air these different arguments here in the Editors’ Blog. You can believe one or the other.

I note the article because of what it says about the group psychology of each party and the related and intertwined factor of how the political press treats those parties.

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Mike Johnson Joins The Pathetic Parade To The Trump Trial

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

GOP Electeds Prostrate Themselves At The Altar Of Trump

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to pay his respects to Donald Trump this morning by showing up at the courthouse where the former president is on criminal trial, joining a steady line of GOP electeds who have seen it as in their own political interest to make the pilgrimage to Manhattan.

The pathetic display of slavish devotion has a third world tinpot dictator feel to it – which is of course in keeping with Trump’s bogus casting of his own fate in terms of political repression by the current ruling regime.

While the GOP pols who see fit to kiss the ring are themselves a dubious collection of easily mocked figures – Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) and J.D. Vance (R-OH) among them – watching the “law and order” and “faith-based” party kneel before a criminal defendant in a case involving a porn star no less is another marker of how far things have fallen.

But when your party has unified around insurrections past and still to come, anything is possible.

Michael Cohen Cross-Examination Could Start Today

TPM’s Josh Kovensky arrived at the courthouse this morning just after 5 a.m. ET to make sure he snares a seat for Day 2 of Michael Cohen’s testimony.

Prosecutors moved swiftly through the bulk of his direct testimony Monday, and the highly anticipated cross-examination of Cohen by Trump attorney Todd Blanche could begin as early as today.

Kovensky will resume liveblogging the trial this morning. Here’s his wrap on yesterday’s testimony.

I Can’t Let The Mar-a-Lago Case Go

A great thread by Lawfare’s Roger Parloff on what U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon is up to in the classified documents case.

I Missed This

Late last week, Politico published an unusual inside account of the work of the Arizona grand jury that brought indictments in the fake electors probe there:

The Arizona grand jury that recently indicted 18 people for their roles in former President Donald Trump’s scheme to subvert the 2020 election cast a far wider net than state prosecutors had publicly foreshadowed.

The panel of 16 Arizonans displayed unusual independence from the prosecutors supervising the investigation, according to a rare inside look at the secret proceedings based on interviews with eight people familiar with the probe and documents signed by a top prosecutor.

The upshot is that at least one person told my prosecutors they weren’t a target of the investigation ended up indicted within days by this very independent grand jury.

Ratfuckery, 2024 Style

TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: Far-Right Group Recruits Followers To Overwhelm Election Offices With Voter Roll Challenges

Quote Of The Day

If you threaten to harm or kill an election worker, volunteer or official, the Justice Department will find you and we will hold you accountable. The public servants who administer our elections must be able to do their jobs without fearing for their safety or their families. We will aggressively investigate and prosecute those who threaten election workers.

Attorney General Merrick Garland, at a meeting of DOJ’s Election Threats Task Force 

On SACR And Extremist Ideology

Drawing in part on TPM’s work, researcher Beth Daviess takes a closer look at the Society for American Civic Renewal, focusing on its gender ideology and accelerationism.

Abortion Watch

  • Louisiana: Legislators are considering designating the abortion pills mifepristone and misoprostol as “controlled dangerous substances.”
  • Arizona: The state Supreme Court delayed until August enforcement of the Civil War-era abortion ban it revived, which may give the legislature’s repeal of the ban enough time to kick in without the ban ever being enforced.

2024 Ephemera

  • Primary elections are being held today in Maryland, West Virginia, and Nebraska.
  • MD-Sen: The most closely watched race is the Senate Democratic primary, where Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks will face off for the right to take on former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the general election. Trone, with his Total Wine & More fortune, has outspent Alsobrooks by something in the neighborhood of 10-1, an enormous $60 million in a primary. But Alsobrooks has the support of many major Democratic figures.
  • Democratic super PAC launches a $25 million ad buy in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania featuring abortion rights testimonials.
  • Wisconsin Supreme Court signals it will overturn a 2022 decision and reinstate ballot drop boxes for absentee voting.

Where Are Senate Democrats?

House Democrats – who wield no subpoena power but understand the messaging value of hard-hitting investigations – have launched a probe of Donald Trump’s meeting last month with oil executives at Mar-a-Lago, where he implored them to funnel $1 billion to his campaign and touted it as a good investment.

More Of This, Please

An important rules change by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (so sexy) that is intended to ease the approval process for the massive expansion of the electrical grid necessary for the transition to a non-carbon energy economy.

We’re Still Not Talking About This The Right Way

A lot of focus in recent weeks on what is being dubbed the “insurance crisis” but which is really the climate crisis coming home to roost. Insurers, especially property insurers, are the canary in the coal mine that real estate values are artificially inflated because they don’t take into account heightened risks from climate change. Obviously that has profound implications on the real estate market, and it is deeply frustrating to homeowners, for example, not to have access to affordable property insurance. But I get the sense the public conversation is focused on building a head of steam to address the insurance piece of this complicated problem and continue to ignore the underlying causes.

David Sanborn, 1945-2024

The saxophone great has died after a long bout with prostate cancer:

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NYT-Siena Obsessing Addendum

Let me expand a bit on today’s Backchannel about that Times-Siena poll and polling issues more generally. I mentioned keeping an eye out for the delta between Likely Voter screens and Registered Voter ones. As we’ve noted a few times, this has become a consistent pattern in this presidential race: Joe Biden does substantially better in likely voter polls. And this isn’t an arbitrary difference. It’s not like saying Trump does better in the NYT-Siena poll than he does in the ABC-Ipsos one, so I prefer the latter. A Likely Voter screen is the pollster’s attempt to poll the actual voting electorate as opposed to the population of registered voters. So that distinction is very key. And if they diverge you really want to be doing better with Likely Voters, as Biden is.

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Trump Enlists Deputy To Thank Peter Navarro For His Service In Prison

While the former president couldn’t be bothered to make the trek amid a campaign schedule that has to be juggled with in-person appearances at his criminal trial in New York, Donald Trump sent a deputy in his stead to make sure Peter Navarro felt appreciated for his Trump family loyalty, as he does time for refusing to comply with a congressional investigation.

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Far-Right Group Recruits Followers To Overwhelm Election Offices With Voter Roll Challenges

True the Vote is enlisting private citizens to help it overwhelm under-staffed and under-resourced election offices with voter roll challenges ahead of election day.

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The Dismal (Polling) Science

If you’re continuing to rise and fall with the latest polls, you know that the NYT/Siena poll came out today with pretty unwelcome news for the Biden campaign. Biden is close to tied or just behind in the key midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but he is far back in the sunbelt states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Possible preview: if Biden won the first three and lost the second three he would win the Electoral College with 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268. These are bad numbers. There’s no arguing that. The NYT/Siena poll hasn’t been friendly to Biden, but it’s also a quality poll. I would recommend focusing on the averages which suggest a slightly, though not dramatically, different picture. Also, pay close attention to Likely Voter screens as opposed to Registered Voter screens.

I won’t lie to you. I don’t like the look of this poll. But the overall picture continues to be one in which the polls have continued to tighten, albeit not as quickly as I’d like, since around the beginning of March.

But I want to flag a different point: Congress.

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