How Many People Have Died In NYC During The COVID Pandemic?

New York City released new numbers on the COVID pandemic on Tuesday, bringing the death toll to more than 10,000.

But even those new numbers don’t capture the pandemic’s true toll.

Continue reading “How Many People Have Died In NYC During The COVID Pandemic?” →

There’s Been a Spike in People Dying at Home in Several Cities. That Suggests Coronavirus Deaths Are Higher Than Reported.

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

In recent weeks, residents outside Boston have died at home much more often than usual. In Detroit, authorities are responding to nearly four times the number of reports of dead bodies. And in New York, city officials are recording more than 200 home deaths per day — a nearly sixfold increase from recent years.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the United States had logged more than 592,000 cases of COVID-19 and more than 24,000 deaths, the most in the world, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. But the official COVID-19 death count may, at least for now, be missing fatalities that are occurring outside of hospitals, data and interviews show. Cities are increasingly showing signs of Americans succumbing to the coronavirus in their own beds.

ProPublica requested death data from several major metropolitan areas. Its review provides an early look at the pandemic’s hidden toll.

Experts say it’s possible that some of the jump in at-home death stems from people infected by the virus who either didn’t seek treatment or did but were instructed to shelter in place, and that the undercount is exacerbated by lack of comprehensive testing. It’s also possible that the increase in at-home deaths reflects people dying from other ailments like heart attacks because they couldn’t get to a hospital or refused to go, fearful they’d contract COVID-19.

Mark Hayward, a sociology professor at the University of Texas-Austin who’s an expert on mortality statistics, said all of those deaths are part of the “overall burden of the pandemic.” He said an uptick in deaths, specifically in ProPublica’s findings for Massachusetts and Detroit, indicates an undercount is occurring.

You should think about the official coronavirus death counts, he said, “as just the tip of the iceberg.” The quality of the deaths data will improve as testing expands and fewer people die without getting tested, he added.

The reason having accurate death statistics is important is because they help signal the location of hot spots and prompt officials to deploy resources. Knowing someone died of COVID-19 also enables health officials to alert their contacts so they can quarantine themselves.

New York City was among the first to provide data on at-home deaths. Officials said last week that roughly 200 residents were dying each day outside of hospitals and nursing homes. That’s compared with about 35 per day on average between 2013 and 2017, according to city records.

ProPublica found similar patterns beyond America’s largest and most hard-hit city. Our review examined parts of states like Massachusetts, Michigan and Washington state, drawing upon information from vital-records departments, health agencies, 911 call centers and police departments. ProPublica then compared those findings with historical deaths provided by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In Middlesex, Massachusetts’s most populous county and home to Cambridge, Somerville and Lowell, officials reported 317 at-home deaths in March. That’s about a 20% increase from the same time period for the past three years, in which deaths ranged from 249 to 265. In late February, a Cambridge-based biotech firm hosted a conference in nearby Boston that was later reportedly linked to more than 100 infections; it’s unclear if anyone died.

Older people are particularly vulnerable to dying from COVID-19. In all of Massachusetts, deaths for people 65 and older increased by 3.6% in March from the same month, on average, during the previous three years. The comparison to 2019 was particularly dramatic, an additional 250 deaths across Massachusetts. At the same time, the data shows that increase can’t be accounted for by the official coronavirus tally alone: only 89 deaths statewide were attributed to the virus in March, according to state Health Department data.

The rise in deaths of the elderly is “a pretty dramatic change,” Hayward said, that’s “very consistent with COVID-related deaths.” (As of Monday, Massachusetts’ official COVID-related death count was more than 840.) The Massachusetts Health Department said that the data is preliminary and that there are year-to-year fluctuations.

In Detroit, authorities responded to more than 150 “dead person observed” calls in the first 10 days of April. It was around 40 during the same period for the past three years, according to city 911 call data. Almost all of the incidents in this year’s period occurred in areas where the median household income was less than $45,000, census data shows. Lower-income areas have been particularly hard hit by the coronavirus.

While specifics of each death weren’t available, a review of Detroit radio transmissions revealed instances of individuals found “dead on scene,” such as a March 31 call to a low-income apartment complex northwest of downtown. “Use your precautions here,” said the dispatcher after broadcasting a medical code but few other details. Detroit-area officials couldn’t immediately provide totals on at-home deaths.

In other parts of the U.S., 911 calls for medical assistance have dropped. In Seattle, an early epicenter of the pandemic, data shows that EMT and paramedic calls dropped by more than 25% in the first 10 days of April compared with the same time frame last year. It’s unclear how much, if any, of that drop is due to people being fearful of interacting with the health care system.

Guidance from the CDC says that coroners and medical professionals can list “probable” or “presumed” COVID-19 on death certificates in cases where the symptoms match, even if the person wasn’t tested. For the most part, official death tallies from the disease haven’t included people who died before they were confirmed positive.

Bureaucratic delays and restrictive laws are also contributing to an incomplete picture. Some state officials told ProPublica it would take weeks to provide complete death numbers because of thin staffing or antiquated computer systems. In California, a Health Department spokesman said a request for detailed figures on statewide deaths would take a month to process and would cost $325. (ProPublica plans to pay for it.) Hawaii has suspended the processing of public records.

When a city’s health care system is overwhelmed, the true scope of deaths due to the pandemic is easily missed “in the fog of war,” said Lorna Thorpe, director of the epidemiology division at New York University’s Langone Medical Center. The official numbers provided by health departments are imperfect, she said, and mostly used for “situational awareness” to show which areas are hardest hit.

“One of the reasons we count deaths is to allocate resources to where they need to go,” said Robert Anderson, the chief of the CDC’s mortality statistics branch. “It becomes a little more time sensitive when you’re dealing with something like a pandemic.”

He said it’s particularly important to catch potential hotspots before they explode. If officials can direct adequate resources to places early, “maybe we can keep things from going crazy.”

Given that the U.S. doesn’t have enough tests in the first place, the majority of the screenings are “probably marked for people who are alive,” and the shortage is particularly acute in rural areas with few confirmed cases, said Hayward, the University of Texas professor.

The CDC is logging COVID deaths by collecting death certificates from every state, territory and the District of Columbia, a meticulous process that involves time lags and is vulnerable to errors. Hayward, who is part of a CDC advisory council on vital statistics, said the quality and speed of the data coming in varies so much that it can feel like wrangling reports from more than 50 countries.

Even for routine illnesses like the flu, the national count based on death certificates is always an underestimate. The CDC uses a model that adjusts for the real toll of flu deaths every year, Anderson said, and his staff will create a new model for the coronavirus by comparing the total deaths recorded in the past few months against historic death rates.

At the beginning of the pandemic, “the undercount is going to be really high,” Hayward said. “I couldn’t give you a number. There is no good news on that front.”

Claire Perlman contributed reporting.

Filed under:

 

NYC’s COVID-19 Death Toll Soars By 3,778 After Probable Cases Added

New York City on Tuesday added 3,778 fatalities to its count of COVID-19 deaths by including cases in which the presence of the viral disease was likely at fault — even if it had not been confirmed with a test.

Continue reading “NYC’s COVID-19 Death Toll Soars By 3,778 After Probable Cases Added” →

Student Lawsuit Accuses Liberty U Of ‘Profiting From The COVID-19 Pandemic’

A student at Liberty University filed a lawsuit in federal court Tuesday accusing the school of keeping its dorms open amid the COVID-19 pandemic to avoid refunding students for room and board.

Continue reading “Student Lawsuit Accuses Liberty U Of ‘Profiting From The COVID-19 Pandemic’” →

Sen. Richard Burr Sold D.C. Townhouse To Donor At A Rich Price

ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

The chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Richard Burr, has come under fire in recent weeks for unloading stock holdings right before the market crashed on fears of coronavirus and for a timely sale of shares in an obscure Dutch fertilizer company.

Now the North Carolina Republican’s 2017 sale of his Washington, D.C., home to a group led by a donor and powerful lobbyist who had business before Burr’s committee is raising additional ethical questions.

Burr sold the small townhouse, in the Capitol Hill neighborhood, for what, by some estimates, was an above market price — $900,000 — to a team led by lobbyist John Green. That is tens of thousands of dollars above some estimates of the property’s value by tax assessors, a real estate website and a local real estate agent. The sale was done off-market, without the home being listed for sale publicly.

Green is a longtime donor to Burr’s political campaigns and has co-hosted at least one fundraiser for him. In 2017, the year of the sale, Green lobbied on behalf of a stream of clients with business before Burr’s committees.

Ethics experts are generally troubled when politicians enter into business transactions with donors or lobbyists with matters before them. The legality of this sale hinges on whether the home was purchased for fair market value. If it was purchased for more than that, it would be considered a gift. Gifts of significant value from lobbyists are generally banned by Senate ethics rules, and those that aren’t are typically required to be publicly disclosed. Neither Burr nor Green disclosed any such gifts. Gifts that are intended to influence official actions are illegal.

“This appears to be extremely problematic,” said Kedric Payne, general counsel for the Campaign Legal Center and former deputy chief counsel of the Office of Congressional Ethics.

Other ethics experts agreed. “This has every appearance of being a violation of the gift ban,” said Craig Holman, a lobbyist for the watchdog group Public Citizen. “The gift ban is one of the most basic legal frameworks for preventing corruption. Lobbyist gifts to lawmakers is akin to a bribe.”

Holman, however, said proving such transactions went for above market value is difficult. He compared the scenario to former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt renting a Capitol Hill condo for a discounted rate from the wife of a lobbyist who sought to influence the agency’s decisions. EPA officials initially defended the rent as market rate, and the case did not result in any sanction or prosecution against Pruitt.

In a statement, a Burr spokesperson said the price was the fair market value, “directly in line with comparable properties recently sold in the area.”

“The sale was finalized in February 2017 after a months-long process, which included an independent appraisal confirming the building’s market value and legal review of the title and contract,” the spokesperson said. “The Senate Ethics Committee was notified before the sale and the Committee’s guidance was followed on all relevant public financial disclosures.”

The ethics committee is not known for its aggressive scrutiny of members. “The Senate Ethics Committee is an insider’s club — it is members overseeing each other,” Holman said. “The committee is more widely known for providing cover to colleagues, and it would appear that is what happened in this case.”

In a short statement, Green said, “I have not lobbied the Senator or worked on an issue with his office personally since 2016.”

Tax assessors valued the Washington, D.C., home for $796,720 in 2017, more than $100,000 less than Green and his business partner paid for it. But tax assessment values in the city often come in under market prices. Burr paid $525,000 for the place in 2003.

Redfin, the real estate website, estimated the home’s value to be $813,973 in the month the house was sold, though the company’s valuations are far from exact.

Bob Williams, a Coldwell Banker real estate agent who helps buy and sell homes in the Capitol Hill neighborhood, reviewed the listing for ProPublica and said that he would estimate that in early 2017 Burr’s home would have sold on the market for around $850,000, possibly more if there were multiple competing offers.

Dare Johnson Wenzler, another Washington real estate agent, said it’s difficult to come up with a precise value estimate without knowing more details about the home, but that the price seemed about right.

“Sometimes a buyer will pay more just so they don’t have to compete,” she said. “And it saves the seller from staging the house and putting it on the market. It’s a huge hassle.”

Green’s spokesman provided ProPublica with an analysis that the purchasing entity, a limited liability company, commissioned from a real estate firm to value the property. The analysis is dated December 2018, almost two years after the sale was completed. Asked why it was done well after the sale was done, the spokesman said “one of the LLC members wanted to review the transaction after the fact to document it.”

The analysis found that comparable properties in the immediate vicinity sold in the year preceding for between $725,000 and $989,000, with an average sale price of about $855,000. But the analysis found that Burr’s home included a one-bedroom rental unit and is within walking distance of the House of Representatives, making it more attractive. The analysis found two similar homes, which sold for $898,000 and $989,000.

“The subject Property was sold off-market, which some would consider a lucky break and will often pay more than market value to secure, due to the pressures of supply and demand,” the report states.

Green lobbied the Senate on behalf of Merck on the Right to Try Act, legislation that passed and allows terminally ill patients to get experimental drugs and limits the liability of health care companies. Burr, who sits on the Senate health committee, co-sponsored the legislation on Feb. 7, 2017, the same month that the sale of the house was being worked out.

Green also lobbied on behalf of the pharmaceutical industry on legislation that renewed the Food and Drug Administration’s ability to collect fees from drug and medical device companies to fund a fast approval process, which had bipartisan support. In hearings on the issue, Burr stood out for his pro-industry stances.

And Green worked on behalf of the National Rifle Association on the Hearing Protection Act of 2017, legislation that went before the finance committee, which Burr sits on. The bill would have restricted the ability of states and cities to regulate the sales of firearm silencers. It did not pass.

Green’s other clients include Google’s parent company, Alphabet; AT&T; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Koch companies; Northrop Grumman and the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the trade group for drugmakers. Green has also represented Altria, the tobacco company. Burr has long resisted some government regulation of tobacco. In 2018, the year after the home sale, Burr blasted the FDA’s attempt to ban menthol cigarettes.

There is no evidence that Green tried to influence Burr’s actions as a senator or discussed any legislation with him specifically.

The townhouse transaction was made through a limited liability corporation named after the property address: 450 New Jersey Ave SE Associates. Business records connect the LLC to Green, the lobbyist; two partners at his lobbying firm Crossroads Strategies, Mathew Lapinski and Hunter Moorhead; Gerrit Lansing, who at the time was chief digital officer at the White House; and Lee Dunn, a lobbyist for Google. None of them responded to requests for comment.

Green’s team intended to use Burr’s home — a half mile away the Capitol Building — as a lobbying office, a venue for political fundraisers and a place for clients and associates to sleep overnight instead of a hotel, a person familiar with the transaction told ProPublica.

Burr appears to have used the proceeds from the sale to buy a house in Nags Head, a beach town on North Carolina’s Outer Banks.

Records show that the professional lives of Burr and Green have intersected for years.

Green has donated at least $13,300 to Burr’s political committees going back to at least 2001. He served as Burr’s Washington steering committee chairman back when Burr, then a member of the House, was first running for Senate in 2005. In 2010, he co-hosted an evening fundraiser for him.

After beginning his career in Washington in the mid-1990s as a Republican Senate staffer, Green became a lobbyist and has founded two major lobbying firms, most recently Crossroads Strategies.

Last month, ProPublica reported that Burr unloaded a significant portion of his total portfolio — between $628,000 and $1.72 million of stock — a week before the market crash triggered by the coronavirus outbreak. The sales came soon after he offered public assurances that the government was ready to battle the virus.

Federal authorities are now reportedly scrutinizing those trades, and the FBI has contacted him. Burr has denied allegations of insider trading, saying that he based his decisions solely on public information, including CNBC reports, and not on information he obtained as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee or as a member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

Filed under:

Continue reading “Sen. Richard Burr Sold D.C. Townhouse To Donor At A Rich Price” →

Postal Workers Say USPS Isn’t Telling Them When Colleagues Test Positive for COVID-19, Despite Promising To

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

The U.S. Postal Service appears to be continuing its checkered response to the coronavirus. Workers across the country say they’re not being informed when colleagues have tested positive for COVID-19, despite a Postal Service policy to do so.

At the end of March, after workers complained, the Postal Service told its employees they would be notified if someone “in your workplace is confirmed to have COVID-19.”

But workers at 11 locations told ProPublica they found out about cases through colleagues or were only told by management days after word had already gotten out.

“People are scared because management has stopped communicating,” said David Denton, a mail handler at a Long Island processing plant. “We have a right to know from management exactly how many cases are confirmed in the building.” Denton said he’s heard of several positive cases at his location, but employees haven’t been told anything by management.

Three letter carriers in New Haven, Connecticut, said they only heard through co-workers — not management — that a colleague had the coronavirus. Their local union president, Vincent Mase, confirmed to ProPublica that one employee at their location had tested positive.

And a letter carrier in New Orleans who tested positive said his supervisor didn’t ask whom he had been in contact with until five days after the worker had raised it. An employee who had been in close contact with him said he didn’t receive any notification from management.

Some post offices are following through on the new policy. Managers at a post office in Gays Mills, Wisconsin, told employees when one of their colleagues tested positive for the coronavirus, asked those who were in close contact with him to quarantine and closed the site for cleaning.

USPS spokesman David Partenheimer said employees at postal facilities are being notified about cases in their facilities. He did not comment on workers saying that hasn’t happened.

Eleanor Murray, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Boston University School of Public Health, said that people who have been in close contact or shared objects with someone who has the coronavirus should be quarantined for 14 days.

“If someone in the workplace has tested positive, then there’s a good chance that at least a couple other people have been infected already even if they don’t feel sick,” she said. “Since we still don’t have great testing capacity, if you’ve been in direct contact with someone who has coronavirus symptoms but hasn’t been tested, then it’s a good idea to quarantine.”

The continued concerns come as the Postal Service nears potential financial collapse. The head of the agency told Congress last week that the agency will run out of money by September. The president rejected a bailout for the agency proposed by lawmakers in the $2 trillion stimulus.

The Postal Service announced its notification policy and other protections for workers after thousands of employees signed a petition for a safer workplace and ProPublica and other outlets reported letter carriers’ concerns over lack of protective equipment and being pressured to work despite having symptoms.

Senators recently wrote to Postmaster General Megan Brennan demanding answers about how the agency is protecting its workers. The Postal Service sent a five-page response outlining its efforts to implement Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.

Filed under:

 

‘Reopening the Economy’ and the Great Do-Over

Sometimes we adopt a metaphor for a big societal question that, even though we know it’s a metaphor, still significantly distorts our thinking about what we’re talking about. I’m thinking here of when we “reopen the economy”. At least in its more antic forms, President Trump himself seems to be the big driver of this catchphrase. So that may explain the confusion behind it. The economy isn’t closed and we’re not going to reopen it. Not any time soon.

Continue reading “‘Reopening the Economy’ and the Great Do-Over” →

Republicans Dismiss Trump’s Claim Of ‘Total’ Authority To Reopen The Economy

Shortly after President Trump asserted during a White House coronavirus task force briefing that his “authority is total” when it comes to reopening the economy, several prominent Republicans pushed back on the President’s baseless claim. Continue reading “Republicans Dismiss Trump’s Claim Of ‘Total’ Authority To Reopen The Economy” →

Only A Handful Of States Are Ready For The Mail-In Voting Election COVID-19 Will Bring

How easy is it for voters to safely cast ballots amid the global pandemic? That depends — like many things in election administration — on where they live.

Continue reading “Only A Handful Of States Are Ready For The Mail-In Voting Election COVID-19 Will Bring” →