This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.
The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%.
The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.
With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.
This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court.
Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women.
A rising Poland
For much of the post-second world war era, Poland has had limited European influence.
This is no longer the case. Poland’s economy has boomed since it joined the EU in 2004. It spends almost 5% of its gross domestic product on defence, almost double what it spent in 2022 at the time of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Poland now has a bigger army than the United Kingdom, France and Germany. And living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan’s.
Along with Brexit, these changes have resulted in the EU’s centre of gravity shifting eastwards towards Poland. As a rising military and economic power of 37 million people, what happens in Poland will help shape Europe’s future.
Impacts on Ukraine
Poland’s new position in Europe is most clearly demonstrated by its central role in the fight to defend Ukraine against Russia.
This centrality was clearly demonstrated during the recent “Coalition of the Willing” summit in Kyiv, where Tusk joined the leaders of Europe’s major powers — France, Germany and the UK — to bolster support for Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
However, Poland’s unqualified support for Ukraine will now be at risk because Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees in his country and opposed Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and NATO.
Nawrocki was also backed during his campaign by the Trump administration. Kristi Noem, the U.S. secretary of homeland security, said at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Poland:
Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country.
Trump also hosted Nawrocki in the Oval Office when he was merely a candidate for office. This was a significant deviation from standard U.S. diplomatic protocol to stay out of foreign elections.
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki to the Oval Office 🇺🇸🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/EzjPgygMxI
Nawrocki has not been as pro-Russia as some other global, MAGA-style politicians, but this is largely due to Poland’s geography and its difficult history with Russia. It has been repeatedly invaded across its eastern plains by Russian or Soviet troops. And along with Ukraine, Poland shares borders with the Russian client state of Belarus and Russia itself in Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised enclave on the Baltic Sea.
I experienced the proximity of these borders during fieldwork in Poland in 2023 when I travelled by car from Warsaw to Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, via the Suwalki Gap.
This is the strategically important, 100-kilometre-long border between Poland and Lithuania, which connects the Baltic states to the rest of NATO and the EU to the south. It’s seen as a potential flashpoint if Russia were ever to close the gap and isolate the Baltic states.
Poland’s conservative nationalist politicians are therefore less Russia-friendly than those in Hungary or Slovakia. Nawrocki, for instance, does not support cutting off weapons to Ukraine.
However, a Nawrocki presidency will still be more hostile to Ukraine and its interests. During the campaign, Nawrocki said Zelensky “treats Poland badly,” echoing the type of language used by Trump himself.
Poland divided
The high stakes in the election resulted in a record turnout of almost 73%.
There was a stark choice in the election between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski.
Trzaskowski supported the liberalisation of Poland’s harsh abortion laws — abortion was effectively banned in Poland under the Law and Justice government — and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples.
Nawrocki opposed these changes and will likely veto any attempt to implement them.
While the polls for the presidential runoff election had consistently shown a tight race, an Ipsos exit poll published during the vote count demonstrated the social divisions now facing the country.
As in other recent global elections, women and those with higher formal education voted for the progressive candidate (Trzaskowski), while men and those with less formal education voted for the conservative (Nawrocki).
After the surprise success of the liberal, pro-EU presidential candidate in the Romanian elections a fortnight ago, pro-EU forces were hoping for a similar result in Poland, as well.
That, for now, is a pipe dream and liberals across the continent will now need to negotiate a difficult relationship with a right-wing, Trumpian leader in the new beating heart of Europe.
On May 7, just 28 minutes after a U.S. appeals court ordered that a Salvadoran man not be removed from the United States, the Trump administration deported him to El Salvador. The Trump administration told the Second Circuit in a filing last week that the wrongful deportation was the result of “a confluence of administrative errors.”
The fourth known wrongful deportation in the opening months of Trump’s anti-immigration jihad was first reported by the nonprofit news outlet Investigative Post.
The Trump administration’s admission that the deportation of Jordin Alexander Melgar-Salmeron was in error came only after the appeals court had ordered the government to respond to a list of nine questions about what had happened in the case. Among the pointed questions posed by the appeals court:
8. What is the Government’s overall understanding as to why Petitioner was removed on May 7, 2025 despite an express assurance made to this Court that the Government would forbear from removing Petitioner until May 8, 2025?
9. What is the Government’s overall understanding as to why Petitioner was removed at 10:20 a.m. EST on May 7, 2025 despite an existing order from this Court staying removal pending consideration of his Petition for Review?
Politico has a good rundown on the specific details of the underlying case. But for our purposes, the apparent violation of the appeals court order (the administration argues it was not a violation because it was an error …) is front and center. The appeals court has given both sides additional time to propose what the next steps in the case should be.
A lawyer for Melgar-Salmeron told Politico that he intends to ask the court to order his client’s return from El Salvador and to hold Trump administration officials in contempt.
Leave No Paper Trail Behind
With the Kash Patel era at the FBI in full swing, the bureau is shifting significant resources to immigration enforcement and away from other high priority cases, but agents have been told by higher-ups not to document the shift in order to avoid creating a paper trail, CNN reports.
Oops …
AP: Kristi Noem said an immigrant threatened to kill Trump. The story quickly fell apart
Trump’s Bogus Invocation Of The State Secrets Privilege
NYU law professor Ryan Goodman goes deep on the Trump administration’s invocation of the state secrets privilege. The TL;DR: “It is hard to escape the conclusion that the Trump administration is invoking the doctrine here to impede accountability and judicial remedies for official conduct that courts have found unlawful.”
For Your Radar …
As the House GOP megabill that enshrines the Trump II agenda heads to the Senate, a closer look at the provision that appears intended to weaken the federal judiciary by making it harder to enforce contempt of court violations.
I am not the kind of expert who can provide plausible predictions about whether the Federalist Society will prevail over the Trump administration, or vice-versa, or what terms they might meet if they find some compromise. My best guess – and it is just a guess – is that Emil Bove’s confirmation process will tell us a lot about what happens afterwards. But which side wins and which loses in the bigger contest will have important consequences for the kind of conservatism that prevails, and for the kind of America that we’re going to live in.
Law Firms Paying A Price For Capitulation
WSJ: “At least 11 big companies are moving work away from law firms that settled with the administration or are giving—or intend to give—more business to firms that have been targeted but refused to strike deals, according to general counsels at those companies and other people familiar with those decisions.”
The White House is looking to strike a deal with a high-profile school, said the first source, who is involved in the higher education response.
“They want a name-brand university to make a deal like the law firms made a deal that covers not just antisemitism and protests, but DEI and intellectual diversity,” this person said.
“They want Trump to be able to stand up and say he made a deal with so-and-so – an Ivy League school, some sort of name-brand school that gives them cover so they can say, ‘We don’t want to destroy higher education.’”
Asked if any of the schools are inclined to make such a deal, the source said, “Nobody wants to be the first, but the financial pressures are getting real.”
The Purges, Step 2: Install Cronies
We always knew the Trump purges were merely the first step in a plan to install loyalists throughout government, though “loyalist” doesn’t fully capture the mix of unqualified, deeply compromised, and/or unfit candidates Trump is selecting:
Inspectors General: After his mass purge of inspectors general, President Trump is turning to people like former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), who was defeated for re-election in 2024 after he was accused of putting his mistress and his fiancée’s daughter on his payroll. D’Esposito is Trump’s nominee for Labor Department inspector general.
State: “If you want to know who’s running the State Department these days, it helps to peruse the website of a relatively new, conservative-leaning organization called the Ben Franklin Fellowship,” Politico reports.
U.S. Office of Special Counsel: After terminating the U.S. special counsel without cause, Trump has nominated conservative lawyer Paul Ingrassia, 30, who has ties to antisemitic extremists.
What Comes After The Initial Trump II Blitz
A thoughtful reflection by M. Gessen as we settle in for the long haul: “As in a country at war, reports of human tragedy and extreme cruelty have become routine — not news.”
CDC Contradicts RFK Jr. On COVID Vax
The COVID vaccine remained on the CDC’s schedule for healthy children 6 months to 17 years old despite Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s earlier public announcement.
War On Science
The Guardian: “Senior officials at the US Department of Veterans Affairs have ordered that VA physicians and scientists not publish in medical journals or speak with the public without first seeking clearance from political appointees of Donald Trump, the Guardian has learned.”
Beyond Weird
After her epic town hall face plant dismissing concerns about Republican Medicaid cuts with the memorable line – “Well, we all are going to die.” – Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) doubled down with a creepy af video shot in a cemetery:
This article first appeared at ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.
These highlights were written by the reporters and editors who worked on this story.
Under the watchful gaze of security guards, dozens of people streamed through metal detectors to enter Temple Israel one evening this month for a town hall meeting on hate crimes and domestic terrorism.
The cavernous synagogue outside of Detroit, one of several houses of worship along a suburban strip nicknamed “God Row,” was on high alert. Police cars formed a zigzag in the driveway. Only registered guests were admitted; no purses or backpacks were allowed. Attendees had been informed of the location just 48 hours in advance.
The intense security brought to life the threat picture described onstage by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, the recipient of vicious backlash as a gay Jewish Democrat who has led high-profile prosecutions of far-right militants, including the kidnapping plot targeting the governor. Nessel spoke as a slideshow detailed her office’s hate crimes unit, the first of its kind in the nation. She paused at a bullet point about working “with federal and local law enforcement partners.”
“The federal part, not so much anymore, sadly,” she said, adding that the wording should now mention only state and county partners, with help from Washington “TBD.”
“The federal government used to prioritize domestic terrorism, and now it’s like domestic terrorism just went away overnight,” Nessel told the audience. “I don’t think that we’re going to get much in the way of cooperation anymore.”
Across the country, other state-level security officials and violence prevention advocates have reached the same conclusion. In interviews with ProPublica, they described the federal government as retreating from the fight against extremist violence, which for years the FBI has deemed the most lethal and active domestic concern. States say they are now largely on their own to confront the kind of hate-fueled threats that had turned Temple Israel into a fortress.
The White House is redirecting counterterrorism personnel and funds toward President Donald Trump’s sweeping deportation campaign, saying the southern border is the greatest domestic security threat facing the country. Millions in budget cuts have gutted terrorism-related law enforcement training and shut down studies tracking the frequency of attacks. Trump and his deputies have signaled that the Justice Department’s focus on violent extremism is over, starting with the president’s clemency order for militants charged in the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
On the ground, security officials and extremism researchers say, federal coordination for preventing terrorism and targeted violence is gone, leading to a state-level scramble to preserve efforts no longer supported by Washington, including hate-crime reporting hotlines and help with identifying threatening behavior to thwart violence.
This year, ProPublica has detailed how federal anti-extremism funding has helped local communities avert tragedy. In Texas, a rabbi credited training for his actions ending a hostage-taking standoff. In Massachusetts, specialists work with hospitals to identify young patients exhibiting disturbing behavior. In California, training helped thwart a potential school shooting.
Absent federal direction, the fight against violent extremism falls to a hodgepodge of state efforts, some of them robust and others fledgling. The result is a patchwork approach that counterterrorism experts say leaves many areas uncovered. Even in blue states where more political will exists, funding and programs are increasingly scarce.
“We are now going to ask every local community to try to stand up its own effort without any type of guidance,” said Sharon Gilmartin, executive director of Safe States Alliance, an anti-violence advocacy group that works with state health departments.
Federal agencies have pushed back on the idea of a retreat from violent extremism, noting swift responses in recent domestic terrorism investigations such as an arson attack on Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in April and a car bombing this month outside a fertility clinic in California. FBI officials say they’re also investigating an attack that killed two Israeli Embassy staff members outside a Jewish museum in Washington in a likely “act of targeted violence.”
Federal officials say training and intelligence-sharing systems are in place to help state and local law enforcement “to identify and respond to hate-motivated threats, such as those targeting minority communities.”
The Justice Department “is focused on prosecuting criminals, getting illegal drugs off the streets, and protecting all Americans from violent crime,” said a spokesperson. “Discretionary funds that are not aligned with the administration’s priorities are subject to review and reallocation.” The DOJ is open to appeals, the spokesperson said, and to restoring funding “as appropriate.”
In an email response to questions about specific cuts to counterterrorism work, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said Trump is keeping promises to safeguard the nation, “whether it be maximizing the use of Federal resources to improve training or establishing task forces to advance Federal and local coordination.”
Michigan, long a hotbed of anti-government militia activity, was an early adopter of strategies to fight domestic extremism, making it a target of conservative pundits who accuse the state of criminalizing right-wing organizing. An anti-Muslim group is challenging the constitutionality of Nessel’s hate crimes unit in a federal suit that has dragged on for years.
In late December, after a protracted political battle, Michigan adopted a new hate crime statute that expands an old law with additions such as protections for LGBTQ+ communities and people with disabilities. Right-wing figures lobbed threatening slurs at the author, state Rep. Noah Arbit, a gay Jewish Democrat who spoke alongside Nessel at Temple Israel, which is in his district and where he celebrated his bar mitzvah.
Arbit acknowledged that his story of a hard-fought legislative triumph is dampened by the Trump administration’s backsliding. In this political climate, Arbit told the audience, “it is hard not to feel like we’re getting further and further away” from progress against hate-fueled violence.
The politicians were joined onstage by Cynthia Miller-Idriss, who leads the Polarization & Extremism Research & Innovation Lab at American University and is working with several states to update their strategies. She called Michigan a model.
“The federal government is gone on this issue,” Miller-Idriss told the crowd. “The future right now is in the states.”
“The Only Diner in Town”
Some 2,000 miles away in Washington state, this month’s meeting of the Domestic Extremism and Mass Violence Task Force featured a special guest: Bill Braniff, a recent casualty of the Trump administration’s about-face on counterterrorism.
Braniff spent the last two years leading the federal government’s main office dedicated to preventing “terrorism and targeted violence,” a term encompassing hate-fueled attacks, school shootings and political violence. Housed in the Department of Homeland Security, the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships treated these acts as a pressing public health concern.
Part of Braniff’s job was overseeing a network of regional coordinators who helped state and local advocates connect with federal resources. Advocates credit federal efforts with averting attacks through funds that supported, for example, training that led a student to report a gun in a classmate’s backpack or programs that help families intervene before radicalization turns to violence.
Another project helped states develop their own prevention strategies tailored to local sensibilities; some focus on education and training, others on beefing up enforcement and intelligence sharing. By early this year, eight states had adopted strategies, eight others were in the drafting stage and 26 more had expressed interest.
Speaking via teleconference to the Seattle-based task force, Braniff said the office is now “being dismantled.” He resigned in March, when the Trump administration slashed 20% of his staff, froze much of the work and signaled deeper cuts were coming.
“The approach that we adopted and evangelized over the last two years has proven to be really effective at decreasing harm and violence,” Braniff told the task force. “I’m personally committed to keeping it going in Washington state and in the rest of the nation.”
A Homeland Security spokesperson did not address questions about the cuts but said in an email that “any suggestion that DHS is stepping away from addressing hate crimes or domestic terrorism is simply false.”
Since leaving government, Braniff has joined Miller-Idriss at the extremism research lab, where they and others aspire to build a national network that preserves an effort once led by federal coordinators. The freezing of prevention efforts, economic uncertainty and polarizing rhetoric in the run-up to the midterm elections create “a pressure cooker,” Braniff said.
Similar discussions are occurring in more than a dozen states, including Maryland, Illinois, California, New York, Minnesota and Colorado, according to interviews with organizers and recordings of the meetings. Overnight, grassroots efforts that once complemented federal work have taken on outsized urgency.
“When you’re the only diner in town, the food is much more needed,” said Brian Levin, a veteran extremism scholar who leads California’s Commission on the State of Hate.
Levin, speaking in a personal capacity and not for the state panel, said commissioners are “pedaling as fast as we can” to fill the gaps. Levin has tracked hate crimes since 1986 and this month released updated research showing incidents nationally hovering near record highs, with sharp increases last year in anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim targeting.
The commission also unveiled results of a study conducted jointly with the state Civil Rights Department and UCLA researchers showing that more than half a million Californians — about 1.6% of the population — said they had experienced hate that was potentially criminal in nature, such as assault or property damage, in the last year.
Prevention workers say that’s the kind of data they can no longer rely on the federal government to track.
“For a commission like ours, it makes our particular mission no longer a luxury,” Levin said.
Hurdles Loom
Some state-level advocates wonder how effectively they can push back on hate when Trump and his allies have normalized dehumanizing language about marginalized groups. Trump and senior figures have invoked a conspiracy theory imagining the engineered “replacement” of white Americans, as the president refers to immigrants as “poisoning the blood” of the country.
Trump uses the “terrorist” label primarily for his political targets, lumping together leftist activists, drug cartels and student protesters. In March, he suggested that recent attacks on Tesla vehicles by “terrorists” have been more harmful than the storming of the Capitol.
“The actions of this administration foment hate,” Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown, a Democrat, told a meeting last month of the state’s Commission on Hate Crime Response and Prevention. “I can’t say that it is solely responsible for hate activity, but it certainly seems to lift the lid and almost encourages this activity.”
A White House spokesperson rejected claims that the Trump administration fuels hate, saying the allegations come from “hoaxes perpetrated by left-wing organizations.”
Another hurdle is getting buy-in from red states, where many politicians have espoused the view that hate crimes and domestic terrorism concerns are exaggerated by liberals to police conservative thought. The starkest example is the embrace of a revisionist telling of the Capitol riots that plays down the violence that Biden-era Justice Department officials labeled as domestic terrorism.
The next year, citing First Amendment concerns, Republicans opposed a domestic terrorism-focused bill introduced after a mass shooting targeting Black people in Buffalo, N.Y.
The leader of one large prevention-focused nonprofit that has worked with Democratic and Republican administrations, speaking on condition of anonymity because of political sensitivities, said it’s important not to write off red states. Some Republican governors have adopted strategies after devastating attacks in their states.
A white supremacist’s rampage through a Walmart in El Paso in 2019 — the deadliest attack targeting Latinos in modern U.S. history — prompted Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to create a domestic terrorism task force. And in 2020, responding to a string of high-profile attacks including the Parkland high school mass shooting, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis released a targeted violence prevention strategy.
The pitch is key, the nonprofit director said. Republican officials are more likely to be swayed by efforts focused on “violence prevention” than on combating extremist ideologies. “Use the language and the framing that works in the context you’re working in,” the advocate said.
Still, gaps will remain in areas such as hate crime reporting, services for victims of violence and training to help the FBI keep up with the latest threats, said Miller-Idriss, the American University scholar.
“What feels awful about it is that there’s just entire states and communities who are completely left out and where people are going to end up being more vulnerable,” she said.
Cautionary Tale From Michigan
On a summer night in 1982, Vincent Chin was enjoying his bachelor party when two white auto workers at a nightclub outside of Detroit targeted him for what was then called “Japan bashing,” hate speech stemming from anger over Japanese car companies edging out American competitors.
The men, apparently assuming the Chinese-born Chin was Japanese, taunted him with racist slurs in a confrontation that spiraled into a vicious attack outside the club. The men beat 27-year-old Chin with a baseball bat, cracking his skull. He died of his injuries four days later and was buried the day after his scheduled wedding date.
Asian Americans’ outrage over a judge’s leniency in the case — the assailants received $3,000 fines and no jail time — sparked a surge of activism seeking tougher hate crime laws nationwide.
In Michigan, Chin’s killing inspired the 1988 Ethnic Intimidation Act, which was sponsored by a Jewish state lawmaker, David Honigman from West Bloomfield Township. More than three decades later, Arbit — the Jewish lawmaker representing the same district — led the campaign to update the statute with legislation he introduced in 2023 and finally saw adopted in December.
“It felt like kismet,” Arbit told ProPublica in an interview a few days after the event at Temple Israel. “This is the legacy of my community.”
But there’s a notable difference. Honigman was a Republican. Arbit is a Democrat.
“It’s sort of telling,” Arbit said, “that in 1988 this was a Republican-sponsored bill and then in 2023 it only passed with three Republican votes.”
Some Republicans argued that the bill infringes on the First Amendment with “content-based speech regulation.” One conservative state lawmaker told a right-wing cable show that the goal is “to advance the radical transgender agenda.”
Arbit said it took “sheer brute force” to enact new hate crimes laws in this hyperpartisan era. He said state officials entering the fray should be prepared for social media attacks, doxing and death threats.
In the summer of 2023, Arbit was waylaid by a right-wing campaign that reduced his detailed proposal to “the pronoun bill” by spreading the debunked idea it would criminalize misgendering someone. Local outlets fact-checked the false claims and Arbit made some 50 press appearances correcting the portrayal — but they were drowned out, he said, by a “disinformation storm” that spread quickly via right-wing outlets such as Breitbart and Fox News. The bill languished for more than a year before he could revive it.
In December 2024, the legislation passed the Michigan House 57-52, with a single Republican vote. By contrast, Arbit said, the bill was endorsed by an association representing all 83 county prosecutors, the majority of them Republicans. Those who see the effects up close, he said, are less likely to view violent extremism through a partisan lens.
“These are real security threats,” Arbit said. “Shouldn’t we want a society in which you’re not allowed to target a group of people for violence?”
I’ve been observing the ongoing debates about which of the several “reckonings” Democrats need to have to improve their fortunes with what I can only describe as a mounting frustration and disgust. There’s the one over Joe Biden being old. There’s the one about Democrats becoming too “woke” and speech police-y. There’s the one about having betrayed or fallen short about this or that left-leaning cause. On the merits I agree with some of these more than others. Some I think are genuinely important. But as things Democrats should be focusing on now, taking accountability for, repositioning, whatever(!) they all, taking together, strike me as different sorts of pathetic, out-of-touch and myopic distractions.
Parties succeed and gain traction by doing far more than by self-analyzing. And my own theory of the case is that core driver and cause of the low standing of the Democratic Party right now is not wokeness or immigration or Joe Biden’s age but the fact that Democrats are simply not effective at advancing the policies they claim to support or protecting the constituencies they claim to defend. Put simply, they are some mix of unable and unwilling to wield power to achieve specific ends.
Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has brought us so much, including sext scandals, bulls**t citations (more on that below), and admittedly bad medical advice. Now, the gravelly voiced political scion wants to bless us with flightless birds that are quite possibly infected with a deadly virus.
The birds in question are about 400 ostriches that are currently living on a farm in Canada’s western British Columbia province. (I was today years old when I learned that a group of ostriches is apparently called a “wobble.”) This particular wobble was hit with a bird flu epidemic last last year that claimed the lives of 69 ostriches. Not very nice.
Given concerns that bird flu, or H5N1, has spread to humans and could cause a major outbreak, officials in Canada have ordered the owners to kill the surviving members of the wobble. (I am taking every opportunity I can to use the word “wobble” here because I find it inherently amusing.)
Karen Espersen and Dave Bilinski, who run Universal Ostrich Farms — which is home to the aforementioned wobble — have pushed back and argued that studying the birds could be beneficial. Most veterinarians and experts do not agree with this take, and the Canadian courts have not either.
The fact scientists see the wobble as a public health threat has not deterred the Canadian right, which has turned the ostriches into something of a cause célèbre. Over on Facebook (of course), Esperson has styled herself as a “digital creator” and “leader in the ostrich industry in Canada.” In between making posts about sleeping among the possibly infected birds, Esperson has tried to amp up her support.
“We need people to come and surround our farm,” Esperson wrote on May 13.
The call to action has apparently resulted in flag-waving busloads reminiscent of the anti-COVID-mandate trucker convoy protests that galvanized the Canadian right prior to its losses in this year’s elections, which were widely seen as a referendum on President Trump. It also inspired some members of the Trump administration to get involved in yet another example of their efforts to connect with the global right wing.
Last week, Kennedy sent a letter to Canadian officials urging them to spare the wobble and study it. Dr. Mehmet Oz, the former reality television star who is Trump’s administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, took things a step further and offered to house the animals on his massive Florida ranch.
So far, Canada has seemingly remained unmoved by these appeals. For her part, Esperson has tried to co-opt liberal-coded language to bring them on board. Her posts about the standoff included one meme with a bold declaration:
“I IDENTIFY AS OSTRICH”
— Hunter Walker
Here’s what else TPM has on tap this weekend:
A preview of what Republicans are up against as they prepare to wrestle the Big, Beautiful bill through the Senate.
A look at the Trump administration’s often comically misguided reliance on AI.
A suggestion that we take the long view on society’s recent lurch toward ultranationalism and isolationism.
“We’re all going to die,” Sen. Joni Ernst reminds us.
Let’s dig in.
Thune Is Up
The Senate is preparing to take up the House-passed reconciliation package starting next week.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will have to coordinate opposing demands for changes to the bill from the senators in his caucus, just as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had to in the House. Some are asking for more spending cuts than what the House bill included in order, they say, to shrink the amount by which the bill would increase the deficit. Others are unhappy with the cuts to Medicaid and the rollback of the Biden-era clean energy tax cuts.
Thune can only lose three votes, so he will have to walk a fine line to find a compromise for those in his caucus. But he will also have to avoid making major changes to the package, because those changes would then have to be voted on again by the House. Any change could backfire, breaking the delicate balance on which Johnson spent weeks building the bill.
So far, it is unclear if Senate Republicans will hold committee markup hearings or take the package straight to the Senate floor, where senators would still have the opportunity to make changes. Markup hearings would also mean Democrats could force the members on each committee to take uncomfortable votes on amendments they propose to specific provisions, getting Republicans on the record for their stance around the unpopular cuts to the safety net programs.
“Why would we subject ourselves to a whole bunch of amendments from Democrats when the Republican members in various committees certainly have all the opportunity… to have their say without needing to go through the brain damage of an official markup?” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said according to Punchbowl.
We will know more in the coming days, but considering the pushback House Republicans received from the public during their hearings, Senate Republicans could very well skip that step and avoid the spectacle.
— Emine Yücel
It Keeps Happening
In mid May, the Trump administration rolled out its “MAHA report,” a purported effort to get to the bottom of America’s poor health outcomes. The report was cast as a collaboration between various Cabinet secretaries and advisors, including, of course, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the secretary of Health and Human Services.
As you likely already know, it now appears that an AI chatbot was among the report’s true authors. The DC news outlet NOTUS first determined on Thursday that many of the studies referenced in the report don’t exist. The report misstated the findings of others. In some cases, the report cited real researchers, but claimed they had authored papers or come to conclusions they had not.
The Washington Post soon sought an answer to the obvious question, and found Chat GPT appears to be at least partially to blame. Some of the URLs cited, the Post found, include “oaicite,” a marker inserted into citations generated by OpenAI, the company behind Chat GPT.
This isn’t the first time the administration has turned to AI to help it complete its work on time, a move more expected of high school students than advisors to the president. DOGE reportedly used a Meta AI model to review federal workers’ Elon Musk-demanded lists of the five things they had done that week. Trump’s mathematically unsound “liberation day” tariffs were widely speculated to be the work of artificial intelligence, making use of a formula that many AI chatbots recommend. “A number of X users have realized that if you ask ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or Grok for an ‘easy’ way to solve trade deficits and put the US on ‘an even playing field,’ they’ll give you a version of this ‘deficit divided by exports’ formula with remarkable consistency,” the Verge reported. (Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tried to laugh off the possibility AI was involved during a Face the Nation interview.)
Tech CEOs flood us with increasingly dire warnings of what their products will do to our society: AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white collar jobs in five years, Anthropic’s CEO claimed in a round of media appearances this week. But, for now, it appears these products are not quite ready to replace government experts. At least, not with the prompts administration officials have been giving them.
— John Light
Grand Opening, Grand Closing
We might have imagined that, with the rise of the internet and the ability to communicate with anyone, anywhere, we’d move toward a more open, dynamic world. Yet, in 2025, the opposite appears to be the case: a cycle of contraction. In the United States, the Trump administration is clamping down on immigration in the name of border security, safety and “Western values.” Italy’s right-wing government recently restricted immigration, paring back its long-standing Jure Sanguinis policy throughwhich someone — me, for example — could claim citizenship by demonstrating an unbroken chain from my great-grandpa, who emigrated to America, to myself. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Cabinet this week announced its intent to abolish a fast-track-to-citizenship program in an attempt to restrict migration into Germany. Earlier this month, the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the desire to end what he called the “failed experiment in open borders.”
Where to begin? Border security is a fraught issue and the concerns are not exclusive to the right, as Starmer illustrates. But, in the end, we all lose. The demonization of immigrants in the name of safety, or the even greater canard of “protecting culture,” only serves to weaken the human spirit. It becomes more difficult to share wisdom and learn about the rich and glorious constellation of lifeways that exist. We doom people to lives they don’t want to live and foreclose opportunities that may exist elsewhere. It’s easy to forget that the “nation state” as we conceive of it didn’t exist until the 16th century. The indigenous peoples of America used to range for hundreds of miles, learning from and trading with others.
It’s not a given that the world will move, linearly, toward greater and greater interconnectedness and integration, as many predicted just a decade ago. As technological innovation expands our abilities to communicate and to travel, this thinking went, the world should get smaller. Cultures should synthesize and understanding of the other should deepen. But that progress — a word some may take issue with — is anything but linear. If you pick a point in time long ago and compare it to today, it may appear that way. But hidden within the millennia and centuries and decades are cycles of greater and lesser freedom of movement and greater and lesser acceptance of other cultures.
In many ways, recent years see us trending toward a more static, staid way of life. I tend to believe these things are cyclical, this trend won’t last forever. But that doesn’t necessarily help in the short run for those of us alive right now.
— Joe Ragazzo
Words of Wisdom
“Well, we’re all going to die.”
That was Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-IA) response this week when she was confronted by constituents shouting at her during a town hall that cuts to Medicaid and SNAP would cause people to die.
The Iowans were, of course, referring to the reconciliation package that the House passed last week, adding additional, last-minute Medicaid cuts to appease House Freedom Caucus members who were threatening to sink the bill without steeper cuts to shrink the amount by which the bill would increase the deficit.
Ernst’s response received raucous pushback from the crowd.
“For heaven’s sakes. For heaven’s sakes, folks,” Ernst continued. “What you don’t want to do is listen to me when I say that we are going to focus on those that are most vulnerable. Those that meet the eligibility requirements for Medicaid, we will protect. We will protect them.”
We’re in the midst of a storm of articles — variously encomiums, valedictories, friendly morality tales — about Elon Musk’s purported departure from service in the federal government. I’m going to note a couple quite unflattering pieces in a moment. But for now, I want to focus on the bulk of them, which tend to portray Musk as someone who tried to tame government spending but was simply over-matched by “Washington’s ways” and finally failed. You get the image of a guy who is chastened, heading back to his regular life, no match for Sodom any more than most of us would be.
The pattern of defiance is so familiar now that there is almost no benefit of the doubt left for federal judges to give the Trump administration.
This morning, in one of the key cases in which the U.S. government has been ordered to “facilitate” the return of a deported individual,U.S. District Judge Stephanie Gallagher of Maryland set the stage for contempt proceedings against the administration after finding that it “utterly disregarded” her order to provide a status report on the pseudonymous plaintiff“Cristian” in a closely watched Alien Enemies Act case.
Gallagher called the government’s late-filed status report on Tuesday “the functional equivalent of, ‘We haven’t done anything and don’t intend to.'” She thwacked the government for being late with the status report and ignoring the substance of what she had asked it to contain.
Cristian, a Venezuelan national, was deported to El Salvador on March 15 under the Alien Enemies Act in violation of a 2024 settlement agreement barring the removal of asylum seekers like him. Following the lead of the Abrego Garcia case, Gallagher ordered the Trump administration to facilitate Cristian’s return. After the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals last week declined the government’s request to pause her order while it appealed, Gallagher quickly ordered the Trump administration to provide her with a status report within a week on Cristian’s status and the steps it had taken and planned to take to facilitate his return to the United States.
As I noted here, the administration filed the status report after her deadline and did not substantively answer her questions. “Instead, Defendants simply reiterated their well-worn talking points on their reasons for removing Cristian and failed to provide any of the information the Court required,” Gallagher concluded in her latest order.
Gallagher pulled no punches, writing that the administration’s status report:
“adds nothing to the underlying record”
“reflects a lack of any effort”
“shows zero effort to comply”
is “patently insufficient”
shows a “blatant lack of effort”
What happens now?
Gallagher all but urged Cristian’s counsel to initiate contempt of court proceedings against the Trump administration, inviting them to give her input on “a process to create an appropriate record on Defendants’ lack of compliance with this Court’s Orders.” In the meantime, she gave the administration until 5 p.m. ET Monday to cure its noncompliance with a more fulsome status report.
In the slow-moving, drawn-out constitutional clash in the handful of “facilitate” cases, the Cristian case is quickly catching up to the others as a flash point in whether the judicial branch will hold or be able to hold the line against a defiant executive.
Everyone has a newsletter now, even the United States Department of State. And, since taking to Substack in late April, the agency tasked with articulating and representing America’s foreign policy interests on the world stage has published a manifesto of sorts touting the need for this country and Europe to “recommit to our Western heritage.”
The Office of Personnel Management has a new hiring plan which instructs government agencies to cease collecting any demographic information on their workforces and rolls out a political loyalty tests which asks new employees to list their favorite presidential executive orders and how they envision bringing the President’s EO vision to fruition.
New details about the extent of the Trump administration’s stonewalling in the case of the mistakenly deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia were revealed in a court filing Thursday. After six weeks of what was originally supposed to be two weeks of expedited discovery, the government has provided virtually no meaningful discovery responses, Abrego Garcia’s lawyers report.
Normal discovery disputes would not usually be newsworthy, but this comes in the context of a contempt of court inquiry. The administration’s defiance on discovery and the associated gamesmanship cut against its already-dubious claims that it has complied with the order by U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis of Maryland to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return – an order endorsed and echoed by the Supreme Court.
Judge Xinis had ordered the discovery into Abrego Garcia’s status and what the government had done and planned to do to facilitate his release from imprisonment in his native El Salvador for two reasons: (i) to pressure the Trump administration to abide by her Supreme Court-backed order to facilitate his return; and (ii) to determine whether the administration had violated her order with sufficient bad faith to constitute contempt of court.
After the Trump administration late Wednesday asked for an extension of the May 30 deadline by which all discovery is to be completed, Abrego Garcia’s lawyers filed a blistering response demonstrating how little discovery the government has produced so far. It was already clear from public filings that the government had offered witnesses for deposition who had little or no personal knowledge of the facts of the case, in contravention of the judge’s order. The precise details of that defiance are unclear because many filings remain under seal.
The new details show how desultory the government’s document production has been, too. As of two weeks ago, the government had only produced 34 actual documents. In the subsequent two weeks it was given in which to produce rolling discovery, it coughed up a total of one additional partial document, according to Abrego Garcia’s filing.
“This is far from a good faith effort to comply with court ordered discovery. It is reflective of a pattern of deliberate delay and bad faith refusal to comply with court orders,” Abrego Garcia’s lawyers argued in opposing the extension request. “The patina of promises by Government lawyers to do tomorrow that which they were already obligated to do yesterday has worn thin.”
Abrego Garcia’s lawyers say the government document production has included what they characterize as “makeweight,” non-responsive copies of existing filings in the case and of other publicly available materials that aren’t new or pertinent. “Zero documents produced to Plaintiffs to date reflect any efforts made to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s release and return to the United States,” they say (emphasis theirs).
Judge Xinis wasn’t buying it either.
“Assertions of diligence notwithstanding, Defendants have offered no explanation as to why they could not produce any additional documents on a rolling basis, as they had agreed could be accomplished during the May 16, 2025 hearing,” Xinis wrote yesterday when she denied the administration’s request to extend the discovery deadline.
In addition to the paucity of document production, the government has still not fully responded to the limited set of interrogatories that the judge approved for the expedited discovery, Abrego Garcia’s lawyers say.
The Trump DOJ lawyers have also engaged in low-rent gamesmanship, Abrego Garcia’s lawyers say. While the government told the court that it had attempted to confer with them about the request to extend the deadline, in fact the DOJ lawyers reached out at 11:35 p.m. and filed their request an hour later without waiting for Abrego Garcia’s lawyers to respond.
“This is hardly a good faith attempt to obtain Plaintiffs’ position,” Xinis observed in a footnote.
Petty gamesmanship aside, the constitutional and real-world implications of the Abrego Garcia case remain enormous. The pace of the defiance has slowed since the flurry of activity in mid-March, but the constitutional clash is no less real now that it was then.
“[T]he Government has engaged in a pattern of intentional stonewalling and obfuscation—all in service of delaying the inevitable conclusion, which is that it has not done anything to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return,” his lawyers concluded in their latest filing. “More time will not change this, but it will multiply the prejudice to Abrego Garcia, who remains in unlawful custody in El Salvador.”
Going Deeper On the Key Constitutional Clash Cases
The big constitutional clashes are happening in anti-immigration cases where the underlying facts are often less important than the Trump administration’s conduct in court, which can be hard for laypeople to follow. The action (and often inaction) can devolve into complicated procedural maneuvering and legal arguments, so the challenge in covering these cases is to find ways to breathe life into them because they’re so important:
In one of the best pieces I’ve read in a while, Adam Unikowsky unpacks the Alien Enemies Act case out of Texas that the Supreme Court has already weighed in on and which appears to be a likely vehicle for the big decisions it will make on the AEA.
Steve Vladeck unravels the third country deportations case out of Massachusetts which didn’t seem nearly as urgent as the AEA cases until the Trump administration started its extreme shenanigans.
Dan Bongino has a nice cry on Fox & Friends: "I gave up everything for this. I mean, my wife is struggling… I stare at these 4 walls all day in DC, you know, by myself, divorced from my wife. Not divorced, but I mean, separated. And it's hard."
(Note that Brian Kilmeade has to encourage him lol)
NYT: Trump Taps Palantir to Compile Data on Americans
Have A Good Weekend!
Passing through Nashville last night, I caught a freewheeling set of mostly Beatles covers by the bluegrass band Greenwood Rye. Here’s a recent sampling (with a different lineup of musicians):