EDINBURGH, Scotland (AP) — Will the ayes have it, or will Scotland say naw thanks?
No one is certain. Excitement and anxiety mounted across the country Wednesday, the final day of campaigning before Thursday’s referendum on independence.
With opinion polls suggesting the result is too close to call and turnout expected to reach record levels, supporters of separation feel they are within touching distance of victory — but wonder whether their surge in the polls will be enough.
Scottish voters who want to stay in the United Kingdom along with Britain, Wales and Northern Ireland fear the nation they live in may soon cease to exist.
The battle for Scotland has all the trappings of a normal election campaign: “Yes Scotland” and “No, Thanks” posters in windows, buttons on jackets, leaflets on street corners and megaphone-topped campaign cars cruising the streets.
But it is, both sides acknowledge, a once-in-a-generation — maybe once-in-a-lifetime — choice that could redraw the map of the United Kingdom.
The gravity of the imminent decision was hitting home for many voters as political leaders made passionate, final pleas for their sides. More than 4.2 million people are registered to vote, 97 percent of the eligible electorate.
Cathy Chance, who works for Britain’s National Health Service in the Scottish capital of Edinburgh, said she would leave Scotland if it becomes independent.
“I don’t want to live under a nation that’s nationalistic,” she said. “I don’t think the world needs another political barrier.”
Roisin McLaren, a Yes campaigner, said she was finally letting herself believe independence might be possible.
“My family has campaigned for independence for a long, long time, and it’s always been a pipe dream,” the Edinburgh University student said as she knocked on doors in a last-minute effort to convert wavering electors. “Just in the last few days it’s seemed possible, within reach. I can almost taste it.”
Politicians on both sides expressed confidence in the Scottish public, but uncertainty rippled below the surface.
Opinion polls have failed to put either side decisively ahead. Bookmakers, however, tell a different story, offering odds of about 3-1 on a Yes victory and much shorter odds on a No triumph. One firm, Betfair, has already paid out on a No win, and bookmaker William Hill slashed its odds on a No triumph three times on Wednesday, to 2-11.
Alistair Darling, who leads the anti-independence “Better Together” campaign, said if voters had doubts about independence “be in no doubt you have to say ‘No.'”
“If we vote to leave, there is no going back,” he said.
But “Yes Scotland” campaign chairman Dennis Canavan told voters: “Let’s go for it.”
Amid the uncertainty, even the opinionated Rupert Murdoch is hedging his bets. The media mogul, whose newspapers were long considered a powerful force in British elections, traveled to Scotland last week and wrote a series of tweets that seemed supportive of independence.
But on Wednesday his Scottish tabloid newspaper said it would not endorse either side. It ran opinion columns by Yes and No leaders and told Scots: “The Scottish Sun has faith in you to make the right choice.”
A Yes vote will trigger months of negotiations between Scotland and the British government over the messy details of independence, which Scottish authorities say will take effect on March 24, 2016, the anniversary of the date in 1707 that Scotland decided to unite with Britain.
In Edinburgh, an unscientific but popular sweet-toothed survey has backed pollsters’ predictions that the result will be close. For 200 days, the city’s Cuckoo Bakery has sold referendum cupcakes — vanilla sponge with a center of raspberry jam, topped with white chocolate icing — in three versions, adorned with a Scottish Saltire, a British Union Jack or a question mark.
On Wednesday, the bakery announced the result of its cupcake referendum: 47.7 percent No, 43.5 percent Yes, and 8.8 percent undecided.
Co-owner Vidya Sarjoo said the number of undecideds had plummeted over time.
“At first people really weren’t sure — a bit scared, maybe, to make their decision,” she said.
The cupcakes, she stressed, “are all exactly the same flavor. And they all taste delicious.”
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Associated Press Writer Pan Pylas contributed to this report.
Follow Jill Lawless on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/JillLawless
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Whatever they decide, hopefully all of Scotland will embrace it.
The English language has more words in in than any other tongue on the face of the earth; around 171,000 and change. That doesn’t include the obsolete words, of which there are more than 47,000; yet all this impressive verbiage does not even BEGIN to describe how much I don’t give a shit what Scotland does.
Highly unlikely. The single most stupid, divisive plebiscite ever.
A Yes vote will simultaneously create a weak, economically very vulnerable and possibly unsustainable small nation AND have a negative impact on the remaining United Kingdom.
There also seems to be some sort of myth amongst American commenters that somehow Scotland is escaping from English Empire. They are not. They are breaking, or threatening to break, a 300+ year UNION which has had significant and, in fact, disproportionate Celtic influence (and there is nothing wrong with that - so long as the Scots don’t pretend not to have been part of all of the ills and pluses of the UK over that time).
England subsidises Scottish welfare. This has been done with little complaint, recognising that in a country like ours some economic balance needs to be achieved. The divorce will be messy. England, Wales and Northern Ireland will not take kindly to a Yes decision being feather bedded. Even if the answer is No, the promises made by the Better Together campaign will tip the citizens of the other 3 nations in to vociferous reaction to yet more benefits accruing to our friends north of the border.
The emotion appears to be outweighing common sense (it is difficult to make the status quo plus benefits sound as exciting as “independence” - I put that in quotes because it’s an illusion; they will remain enthral to either London or Brussels.
One unholy mess.
One point I’m not seeing in these articles is what their commonwealth status is if the Yes wins. Does their status as part of the Union mean they are not part of the Commonwealth? Is there a legal distinction that a Yes win would also leave them outside the Commonwealth?
Anyone know the answer to this?
Every former British colony remained part of the Commonwealth, unless they explicitely opted out of it. Even a country like Mozambique, which was never part of the British Empire is a Commonwealth nation. Why on earth should Scotland be treated worse than those countries? They have already claimed that they want to keep the Queen as head of state (like Australia or Canada, among others). The Commonwealth membership seems to be obvious.