The Colorado Senate race is now leaning toward a Democratic victory, according to the Cook Political Report, which made the change following Sen. Cory Gardner’s (R-CO) announcement that he would support a vote to confirm President Trump’s pick for the Supreme Court.
Gardner was one of three key GOP senators who joined ranks with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) earlier this week in backing his controversial move to fill the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat.
Gardner’s support of a Senate floor vote to fill Ginsburg’s seat is a change of heart from his remarks in 2016 after late Justice Antonin Scalia’s death, saying that the “next election is too soon.”
The Cook Political Report noted that the support of a Senate floor vote by Gardner —an endangered incumbent who represents a crucial seat in Republicans’ fight to keep the Senate and is trailing former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in the polls — is a position that “will surely be at odds with many Colorado voters.” Gardner represents a state that Trump lost by 5 points. That margin is expected to widen in the November election, Cook said.
According to the Cook Political report, Colorado has been steadily trending toward Democrats in the past two election cycles. The nonpartisan political analysis site cited Democrat Jared Polis’ win during the 2018 gubernatorial race by more than 10 points, and moderate Republican Rep. Mike Coffman losing re-election in the Denver suburbs by 11 points.
Surprised they’re just moving it to Lean Dem. Polls seem to show Hickenlooper up by a good margin.
What am I missing?
Great news, may the GOP destroy themselves
All the analysts are scared of a 2016 happening again.
So unless the Dem is up by 20 points, they are calling it a horse race.
All of these pundits are especially conservative (small c) with their evaluations after 2016, and they still think incumbents have the upper hand, despite so many going down in general elections in 2018. 538 is the same way, and even think Trump’s incumbency gives him an advantage, despite Trump’s apparent attempt to squander it at every turn.
On the other hand Cook has written that the presidential election is fully baked in Biden’s favor. I agree, and as pollsters start polling while people have started to early vote, and it favors Ds by 2-1, their “likely” voter evals will move a critical point or two in favor of Ds and, perhaps, demoralize R voters and entice swing voters to pick the likely winner. That’s how you can generate a rout like in 1980.
Incumbency for one thing. But also there is really a skew in the polls, due to republican voters refusing to state their preference due to either shame or resentment of being looked down. So all those “undecided/don’t know/didn’t tell” are for the most part republican voters and you have to consider that in your analysis.