A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.
The Unforgiving Geopolitics of Oil and Gas
I wanted to use the occasion of the resignation of a prominent climate scientist from NASA, citing the Trump administration’s attacks on climate science, to note how Trump’s foreign misadventures are inextricably intertwined with his retrograde energy policy.
In the face of overwhelming evidence of catastrophic climate change fueled by manmade carbon emissions, Trump spent the first year of his second term decimating domestic wind and solar and doubling down on hydrocarbons, making the United State more — not less — dependent on global energy markets while exacerbating carbon emissions and delaying the inevitable energy transition.
It’s no coincidence that Trump’s two decapitation strikes — Venezuela and Iran — involve countries whose geopolitical significance results almost exclusively from their status as petro-states. Trump wanted to go back to the ways of the old economy, and he got exactly what he bargained for, whether he likes it or not. It’s a reminder — one we didn’t really need — that while the abundance of oil and gas has produced amazing riches and unprecedented global economic growth and development for more than a century, it has come at an enormous price.
From a long-term perspective, the ultimate price of our oil and gas dependence will be a centuries-long rise in global temperatures that is expected to threaten the pillars of civilization and imperil human survival. Nothing major. Alternative forms of energy promised not just to wean us from our dependency but to begin to unshackle us from the unforgiving geopolitics of oil and gas.
Trumpian Chaos in Energy Markets
- WSJ: The liquid natural gas supply chain has been hit hardest by the Middle East conflict and will take much longer to recover than oil.
- Bloomberg: As part of its regular modeling of the effect of energy prices on economic growth, Trump administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices to as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy,
- WSJ: Beginning on April 26, the U.S. Postal Service will impose an 8% surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation.
Nothing to See Here at All
Suspicious trading has been observed ahead of other big Trump policy announcements, but the anomaly was especially notable this week right before Trump backed off his threat to strike Iranian power plants:
The Latest From the Middle East …
- WaPo: The Pentagon is considering diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East, although a final decision to redirect the equipment has not yet been made.
- NYT: Under threat from Iranian counterattacks, many of the 40,000 American troops based in the Middle East have had to disperse to hotels and office spaces because the 13 U.S. bases in the region are “all but uninhabitable.”
- WaPo: Iraq accused the United States of killing seven members of the Iraqi military and injuring 13 others in a strike Wednesday that hit a clinic on a military base in western Anbar province. The Pentagon issued a carefully worded denial that put a lot of weight on the word “target”: “U.S. forces did not target a medical clinic in Iraq.”
The Long Tail of the Alien Enemies Act
- A Venezuelan national deported under the Alien Enemies Act has filed a new lawsuit against the United States allegeing that he was wrongly identified as a member of the Tren de Aragua gang on the basis of his tattoos and endured “physical and psychological torture, solitary confinement, inhumane living conditions, and deliberate indifference to medical care” while detained at CECOT.
- U.S. District Judge James Boasberg of D.C. dismissed a lawsuit from immigrant advocacy groups that challenged the legality of the agreement under which the United States paid for El Salvador to detain the Alien Enemies Act deportees at CECOT. In a highly technical ruling, Boasberg concluded that the groups lacked standing because even giving them what they sought would not redress the harms they continue to face:
At bottom, Plaintiffs describe real injuries stemming from an unprecedented detention arrangement between the United States and El Salvador. They have thus directed their challenge at the nonbinding diplomatic instrument that preceded the agencies’ actions. But, legally, the Agreement is not what authorized the Government to render Plaintiffs’ clients to El Salvador and to pay the Salvadoran government to detain them. Instead, that power comes from statutes that predate the Agreement and that would stay in force no matter how the Court decides this case. Even if the Court vacated the Agreement, then, the Government could keep using those same statutes to inflict the same injury on Plaintiffs. And, as a practical matter, vacating this nonbinding exchange of notes would not change the Government’s willingness or ability to do so. Because the relief Plaintiffs seek would not likely redress their injuries, the Court must dismiss their claims for lack of standing.
Trump’s Mass Detention Policy Upheld
The uber-conservative 8th Circuit Court of Appeals — which covers Minnesota — became the second appeals court to uphold the Trump administration’s ahistorical and unprecedented policy of mandatory immigration detentions without bond in the interior of the country. The two appeals court rulings (the 5th Circuit is the other) stand in contrast to the hundreds of district courts that have found the policy to be unlawful.
The unilateral policy change by the Trump administration, which flew in the face of decades of practice and was contrary to past interpretations of federal statutes, has done more than anything else to flood the federal courts with immigrant habeas cases. Minnesota federal courts have been especially hard hit because of Operation Metro Surge.
Massive DOJ Fuckup
In an extraordinary admission this week, the Trump DOJ told a federal judge it had repeatedly misrepresented the substance of an ICE memo throughout months of litigation over the arrests of migrants at immigration courts.
“We deeply regret that this error has come to light at this late stage, after the parties have expended significant resources and time to litigate this case and this court has carefully considered plaintiffs’ challenge to the 2025 ICE guidance,” the DOJ attorneys told the judge as they formally withdrew their prior arguments about a core aspect of the case.
The DOJ lawyers blamed an unnamed ICE lawyer for the error: “Based on our discussions with ICE today, this regrettable error appears to have occurred because of agency attorney error.”
The Corruption: Mike Flynn Edition
Former Trump National Security Adviser Mike Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to investigators probing Russian interference in the 2016 election and was later pardoned by President Trump, will be paid $1.2 million in a corrupt bargain to settle his wrongful prosecution lawsuit.
The Trump I DOJ corruptly dropped the case against Flynn. Later, the DOJ under Biden successfully defended Flynn’s civil lawsuit. The Trump II DOJ — run out of the White House — is back to its old tricks. The president is looting the federal treasury to benefit his supporters, using DOJ to gussy it up with the language and procedural flourishes of a normal settlement of a legitimate legal dispute.
The Retribution: Letitia James Edition
Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte is at it again.
The Trump crony has sent two new criminal referrals against New York Attorney General Letitia James to U.S. Attorneys Jason Reding Quiñones of the Southern District of Florida and Andrew Boutros of the Northern District of Illinois.
The new bogus allegations are adjacent to his OG mortgage fraud allegations against James, which were dismissed and which two subsequent grand juries rejected. Pulte is now accusing James of homeowners insurance fraud for allegedly misrepresenting how properties in Florida and Illinois would be used.
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It is the biggest own-goal in history.
“Massive Final Blow”
He can “choose from one of four options”. He will choose all four.
“From a long-term perspective, the ultimate price of our oil and gas dependence will be a centuries-long rise in global temperatures that is expected to threaten the pillars of civilization and imperil human survival. Nothing major.“
Agreed. It’s only a flesh wound.
The US military is not large enough to do those.
Which means CF-DJT will order it done.