At Risk Of Being Primaried, Joni Ernst Throws Pete Hegseth A Line

INSIDE: Kari Lake ... Lara Trump ... Rupert Murdoch
WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 19: U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) speaks to reporters as she walks to a Senate luncheons at the U.S. Capitol on November 19, 2024 in Washington, DC. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is pressu... WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 19: U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) speaks to reporters as she walks to a Senate luncheons at the U.S. Capitol on November 19, 2024 in Washington, DC. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is pressuring the Senate to pass his Cabinet nominees, potentially using Recess Appointments. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) MORE LESS
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A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Divide And Conquer

The steady drumbeat of headlines last week – including at Morning Memo – portended a quick and merciless end to Pete Hegseth’s nomination for secretary of defense. But Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) seems to have singlehandedly breathed new life into Hegseth’s all-but-dead confirmation prospects.

After meeting with Hegseth Monday on the Hill, Ernst signaled she would not oppose his confirmation, a shift from her position last week after their first meeting. Ernst, a veteran and sexual assault survivor, has been considered a key bellwether for Hegseth, who settled a sexual assault allegation against him and whose own mother has deplored his treatment of women.

Ernst has come under intense pressure from MAGA world to back Hegseth or face a primary challenge in 2026, as the NYT reported:

Ms. Ernst stopped short of promising to support Mr. Hegseth, but in sending a strong signal that she was favorably inclined, she appeared to clear away a major potential hurdle to his confirmation. At the same time, her shift suggested that Mr. Trump’s MAGA base was ready, willing and able to bully Republicans into submitting to his desires.

While Hegseth’s confirmation remains imperiled, the bulk of the public reporting from the Hill has noted a sea change since late last week, as exemplified by Punchbowl: “Buoyed by continued support from President-elect Donald Trump, the crisis atmosphere enveloping Hegseth’s nomination has cooled somewhat, although the former Army National Guard officer and Fox News host is still far from a sure thing for confirmation.”

One dynamic here could be that as as long as GOP senators cluster together in an anonymous, undifferentiated herd, they can slow roll or block Trump when its in their interest to do so. But if a senator gets separated from the herd, like Ernst did, they can be picked off by MAGA world’s bullying, threatening, and retribution. Stay tuned.

Trump II Clown Show

  • MAGA culture warrior Harmeet Dhillon is Trump’s pick to oversee the Justice Department Civil Rights Division.
  • Trump is considering Kari Lake for ambassador to Mexico.
  • Clarence Thomas confidante Mark Paoletta is returning to OMB as general counsel. Sharped-eyed readers will recall Paoletta as depicted in this painting that hangs at billionaire GOP donor Harlan Crow’s private resort in the Adirondacks:

A painting that hangs at Camp Topridge shows Crow, far right, and Thomas, second from right, smoking cigars at the resort. They are joined by lawyers Peter Rutledge, Leonard Leo and Mark Paoletta, from left. Credit: Painting by Sharif Tarabay

Nepotism Alert

Lara Trump has stepped down as co-chair of the RNC, and her father-in-law is talking to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) about appointing her to fill the seat Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will vacate if he’s confirmed as secretary of state. If appointed, she wouldn’t face voters until a 2026 special election.

Bracing For Trump II

  • WaPo: LGBTQ+ Americans stockpile meds and make plans to move after Trump’s win
  • Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Gov. Tony Evers says “we’ll do whatever we can to avoid” mass deportations in Wisconsin
  • WaPo: Colleges scramble to shield programs amid growing hostility from GOP

Mass Deportation Watch

  • AP: Republican-led states are rolling out plans that could aid Trump’s mass deportation effort
  • WLS TV: Incoming border czar Tom Homan promises mass deportation: ‘Going to start right here in Chicago’
  • CNBC: Trump’s mass deportation plan could threaten workforces in industries from agriculture to health care

The Corruption Is Open And Obvious

NBC News’ Jane Timm: “When President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House next year, he’ll do so with a more sprawling business empire and far fewer promises about how he’ll avoid conflicts of interest.”

Troll-in-Chief

Alito’s Double Standard

With conservative jurists ascendant, Justice Samuel Alito wants to lower the high bar he himself previously set for legal standing (i.e. who has a right to sue), as Chris Geidner points out in this great piece on a new Supreme Court order in which Alito also managed to infuse some anti-trans propaganda:

Noted

The home of a Jewish member of the University of Michigan Board of Regents was vandalized with pro-Palestine graffiti and broken windows Monday:

“We were woken this morning at about 2 a.m. by the sound of crashing glass,” [Jordan] Acker said. “We were really confused. And then the police rang the doorbell, maybe a minute to a minute and a half later, and we saw that our car had been spray painted (with) some messages of threats…They had thrown two mason jars through our front window.”

Acker’s law office was vandalized in June with pro-Palestinian graffiti.

Good Read

The WSJ has the best insta-profile of Luigi Mangione, the private school and Ivy League grad charged with the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

Succession In Real Life

Rupert Murdoch and his four oldest children are engaged in a Succession-inspired dispute over who will control his media empire after his death. The NYT has a fabulous writeup on the dispute and the stinging ruling Murdoch and his son Lachlan just received in the family’s ongoing legal battle.

Golden Dukes 2024!

We’re taking nominations for the 2024 Golden Dukes. You know the drill. (If you don’t, here’s how it works.) Get excited!

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Notable Replies

  1. There are no words for these people.

  2. Avatar for docd docd says:

    Is it just me, or does Hegseth seem to be a little panicked that he won’t be confirmed? He seems a little too desperate.

  3. Joni Ernst, profile in courage.

  4. Anyone else having trouble believing that there is a 26 year old named Luigi?

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