The Florida GOP primary is set for January 31st, ten days after Saturday’s South Carolina vote, and as of right now former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the polls in both states. A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey shows Romney with 42 percent of the field, which was conducted Saturday through Monday. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is second in the poll with 26 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 11 and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) with ten.
“Our current polling suggests Mitt Romney is the man to beat in both South Carolina and Florida,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling in a release. “The top concern of voters this year is the economy and Romney is the candidate they trust most on that issue. He’s also managed to neutralize social conservatives. The GOP nomination contest may be functionally over by the end of the month.”
Romney has also opened a larger lead in South Carolina after a cluster of polls before the weekend showed the race tightening. However, numbers from the last two days seem to show Romney rebounding and a resurgence from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich being held off for the moment. In Florida, Romney’s stock has been rising since he won the first caucus state of Iowa. The current TPM Poll Average shows Romney with 41.5 of the vote, far ahead of the field.
There’s been an enormous shift in Florida since PPP last polled the state right after Thanksgiving. Romney’s gained 24 points, going from 17% to 41%. Meanwhile Gingrich has dropped 21 points, going from 47% to 26%. Romney has extremely impressive favorability numbers in the state with 68% of Republicans seeing him positively to only 24% with a negative opinion. And even if most of his opponents were to drop out before the primary, Romney would still be in a good shape. In hypothetical head to head match ups he leads Gingrich 50-38, Santorum 59-29, Perry 69-21, and Paul 76-17.
Romney leads Gingrich 42-25 as the candidate voters most trust on the economy. And as much as he’s been attacked for his business record it’s proving to be an undeniable asset with primary voters- 70% have a favorable opinion of it to only 18% with a negative one.
