Republican donors seem to be suffering from a case of buyer’s remorse.
Two-thirds of the Republican freshman who ousted Democratic predecessors in the GOP’s 2010 takeover in the House have seen their fundraising dip in the past quarter, USA Today reports.
Campaign finance reports show that several of the new incumbents, such as Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) have been significantly outraised by their challengers. In total, 43 of 65 freshman Republicans raised less in the third quarter than in the previous quarter.
At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has seen its fundraising surge, collecting $6.6 million in September – nearly double its August haul. The National Republican Campaign Committee raised just $3.8 million in the same time period.
Democrats need 25 seats in order to retake control of the House. “I can’t guarantee that we’ll take the House back in 2012,” said Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), “but it will be razor close.”
GOP leaders disagree. In a recent editorial, Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) pointed to Republican victories this fall in Nevada and New York special elections for House seats as evidence that Democrats have not heeded voters’ anger at DC.
“House Democrats stand up for the deeply unpopular Obamacare law, voting against the House Republican attempts to repeal it,” Sessions wrote in The Daily Caller. “They push for more government as Republicans wage war against job-destroying regulations and tax increases.”
Independent campaign experts agree that the financial advantage doesn’t necessarily spell doom for the GOP freshmen, as the political and economic climate currently favors Republicans. “Very few of them are in danger of losing their seats to Democrats,” said David Wasserman, the House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
In addition to the favorable political and economic climate, the role that SuperPACs will play in this campaign cycle may negate the Democratic candidate’s fundraising advantage. SuperPACs, with their ability to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, make candidate fundraising “less important than ever before,” according to Wasserman.
