A few of you have asked how it could be that President Obama appears to be surging into a small lead and yet the PollTracker Average just moved Mitt Romney slightly ahead. Very good question. So let me explain a bit about our methodology. (More in our FAQ here.) Read More
Never underestimate how much of a campaign’s tempo can be affected by arbitrary facts of the lives of the reporters who cover it. In this case, campaign reporters are coming off two weeks of convention reporting and travel. So there’s been a weird calm of sorts over the campaign. What has turned people’s attention, though, is increasing — though still incomplete — signs that President Obama got a significant bounce out of his convention after Gov. Romney got little if any.
But in addition to that there’s been a jagged and ragged quality to the Romney campaign over the last couple days. Read More
Simple formula: the more Romney goes hard Culture War, the more his campaign chiefs are getting freaked by the polls.
On a morning when newspapers across the country are splashed with a feel-good image of President Obama getting man-hugged by a burly Florida restaurant owner, Mitt Romney is embroiled in a bizarre controversy over unfurling, seemingly, three or four different and contradictory positions on ‘Obamacare’ and the fate of people with pre-existing medical conditions.
Some of this is a sign of a disorganized campaign (one I suspect was caught off guard by the potency of the Democratic convention) and some is new evidence of Romney’s ingrained flipfloppery. But some of it, I suspect, goes to the heart of the candidate in a different way. Read More
That Biden photo everyone is talking about was apparently an attempt to recreate this classic scene from movie history. Vid after the jump. Read More
Romney pollster Neil Newhouse has put out a new memo telling fretting supporters not to worry, it’s all good. “While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly,” he writes. But that’s kind of a problem since Romney’s been losing basically for the entire year. And the convention was supposed to be the fabled Romney campaign unicorn. Sarlin and Leighton have the story.
Obama jumps to 6 point lead in new CNN poll. One week ago CNN had the two candidates tied.
All the caveats. But it looks like we may have a run on Romney on Intrade.
Everybody’s talking about the Obama bounce coming off the Democratic convention. But look at this chart after the jump … Read More