From our interview with Nate Silver:
One thing people maybe don’t grasp as a very basic thing is the more time runs off the clock, the more holding a narrow advantage is likely to hold up. If you were making an assessment of what Obama’s chances were in the spring, then you have to worry about a blowup in Europe, you have to worry about something happening in the Middle East — maybe it still will in the Middle East. Maybe instead of having merely mediocre jobs numbers, actually going back into a recession. There are all these shoes that can drop on you and they haven’t.
Early voting starts now, when Romney is unquestionably behind in the presidential contest. With more than a third of votes cast before November 6th, the window may be closing on Romney faster than we think.
Rather than subsiding, Obama’s post-convention “bounce” seems to be solidifying and growing. See the state of the race chart after the jump … Read More
National Republicans pile back onto the Todd Akin bandwagon.
TPM Reader DS wonders whether we’re still underestimating the impact of “the 47%” …
Looking at TPM’s really nice “state of the race” chart, it seems to me that it is Romney’s numbers that are falling fast rather than additional gains by Obama (although there may be some of that too). Running the cursor on the chart seems to suggest so, as it appears that Obama’s numbers had come down slightly after peaking on Sept 13 and Romney’s had flattened out around the same time, until David Corn’s Mother Jones piece came out on Sept 17, and then Romney’s numbers started to go down fast.
A new site called Newsbound has a nice graphical take on just what the battle over Voter ID is all about.
How did no one tell me about this until now. TPM Reader BL sends along this epic Romney dignity loss moment.
Vid after the jump … Read More
Dan Lungren becomes most recent Republican to dump on Mitt Romney and his 47% remarks, which Lungren called a “major mistake.”
Video after the jump … Read More
As we’ve discussed on various occasions, the Gallup Poll has consistently been slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney than most other premium polls. Particularly, it’s the Gallup Tracking Poll. But the difference seems to apply to their full polls as well. Gallup picked up the Obama convention bounce. But then it subsided back to the roughly tied race they’ve been showing for months.
But now we’re getting our first real look at Gallup after the 47% brouhaha. Read More