As we’ve discussed on various occasions, the Gallup Poll has consistently been slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney than most other premium polls. Particularly, it’s the Gallup Tracking Poll. But the difference seems to apply to their full polls as well. Gallup picked up the Obama convention bounce. But then it subsided back to the roughly tied race they’ve been showing for months.
But now we’re getting our first real look at Gallup after the 47% brouhaha.We can’t say why Gallup is moving. But we can say that a dramatic new move for Obama coincides pretty much exactly with the release of the 47% remarks on September 17th.
Gallup is a 7 day running sample. That tied period after the convention bounce starts on the 19th and ends on the 21st, just as the post-17th sample would have begun to build up in the 7 day sample.
Today’s number, where Obama ballooned to a 6 point lead, is the first day the entire sample is after September 17th.
Again, no proof of cause and effect. But the correlation is extremely tight.