Best sign that Richard Mourdock is in a world of trouble in Indiana? His own campaign today released a poll today showing him tied.

Indulge yourself with today’s update to Polltracker’s top races.

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) was taken to University Medical Center in Las Vegas this afternoon after his security motorcade was involved in a multi-car accident.

There is no information currently available on Reid’s condition.

Late Update: Subsequent reports are that Reid was able to walk into the emergency on his own feet and is apparently fine. We’ll bring you updates as we receive them.

Brace yourself for the Frankenstorm:

Full size version.

I’ve mentioned a few times that there’s a pattern in the Ohio polls. The premium polls seem to consistently show better results for Obama than the others. Now ‘premium’ can mean a lot of things. But in this case I mean in part a subjective read of the pollster’s quality and reputation and also the ones who use live interviewers and are thus allowed to call cell phones. We did a systematic look at all the Ohio polls. And it’s true. The premium polls — which means the ones who can call cell phones — show a consistently larger lead for President Obama. See the chart.

Sen. Reid’s office releases statement on auto accident.

Karen Tumulty has a piece in tonight’s Post on the non-trivial chances that we could have a split between the popular vote and the electoral college. Read More

WaPo poll of Virginia: Obama +4

TPM Reader AW reports in …

I was in our local bakery, Colozza’s, today here in Parma, OH. They are selling cookies with portraits of Obama and Romney on them, and tracking the number of sales. As of this afternoon, Obama was up 283 to 270. (I was tempted, but I decided I liked cannolis better than either of them.)

If you simply can’t get enough of the campaign numbers geekery at this point. Here’s another interesting take. Middlebury presidential scholar Matthew Dickinson looking at the latest from Drew Linzer — who’s got another complex model (somewhat like Nate Silver’s) to crunch together all the numbers and tell us what to expect on the 6th.

Linzer’s forecast seems even more bullish for Obama than a lot of people are figuring. But Dickinson walks us through the underlying assumptions and what alternate assumptions could produce different results.