Understanding the Polls in Ohio

I’ve mentioned a few times that there’s a pattern in the Ohio polls. The premium polls seem to consistently show better results for Obama than the others. Now ‘premium’ can mean a lot of things. But in this case I mean in part a subjective read of the pollster’s quality and reputation and also the ones who use live interviewers and are thus allowed to call cell phones. We did a systematic look at all the Ohio polls. And it’s true. The premium polls — which means the ones who can call cell phones — show a consistently larger lead for President Obama. See the chart.