Probably the best argument for a Romney victory next Tuesday is the so-called “incumbent rule” — under which undecided voters will break disproportionately for the challenger in a close election. Mark Blumenthal at our friendly competitor Pollster has a good run down of the recent poli sci and statistical evidence showing that the rule doesn’t apply much anymore at the presidential level. Read More
TPM Electoral Scoreboard: Obama 285, Romney 191.
Toss-up states: Ohio, North Carolina, Florida.
Today’s brand spanking new poll charts in all the big races across the country. Check ’em.
TPM 2012 campaign reporter Evan McMorris-Santoro is holding a Live Chat right now about all things campaign 2012. Get your questions in now.
Dick Morris now sees possible bumps on the way to the 400+ EV Romney landslide.
Going into the weekend things are looking good for Barack Obama. Not terribly different than they looked mid-week or a week ago. But there are a slew of polls which show either a confirmation of his relatively strong position in key states or the slightest move in his direction. And with that we’re starting to see the first take from those who’ve spent the last weeks either unskewing the polls or flagging the Romney-mentum. Read More
I can report that power went back on in much of Lower Manhattan between 5 and 6 this evening. The news reports I’ve seen suggest it’s back up in most but not all of Lower Manhattan and in various parts of Brooklyn and Staten Island. I can only report first-hand that it’s back on in the Chelsea neighborhood where TPM’s New York office is, as well as my apartment a few blocks away.
NBC/Marist is out with two new polls show Mitt Romney in a tough position going into election day. Read More
From the Las Vegas Sun …
Investigators today arrested a Southern Nevada woman suspected of trying to vote twice this week at two different polling locations.
Roxanne Rubin was taken into custody as she arrived for work at the Riviera hotel-casino, investigators said. Rubin, 56, is a registered Republican who lives in Henderson, according to the Clark County Registrar.
As we’ve noted many times, voter fraud is rare. But it does happen. What’s extremely rare is voter impersonation fraud — mainly because it’s really hard to do in any scaled and organized way without getting caught. It’s also much more efficient and effective getting real voters to the polls. The big fraud gets done by officials working in the voting process, which makes sense when you think about it.
And along those lines, this from the Willamette (Oregon) Week … Read More