We’ll have a more detailed report on this later this morning. But while the polls themselves still show the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary basically too close to call, over the last three or four days it seems pretty much everyone has decided that Specter cannot win: the Republicans, the White House, all the pundits, etc.

Now to a great degree, they’re just following what the polls are telling them. And as you can see from the trend graph, even though it’s still basically a margin of error race, all the movement has been in Sestak’s direction. That late close you see on Sestak’s side is always a very bad sign for the other guy in the race. Still, Specter does have the state Democratic machine on his side. And normally you’d think that would count for something. But what’s struck me most in the last couple of days is that the people who run that machine or are in the best position to know it’s strengths don’t seem to think it’s going to be enough.

The final public opinion surveys in tomorrow’s big Senate races are coming in this morning. Nothing yet that suggests any dramatic shakeups:

Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary is still too close to call, according to Quinnipiac: Sestak 42, Specter 41.

In the Kentucky Republican primary, Public Policy Polling shows Rand Paul still holds a commanding lead over Trey Grayson, 52-34.

Senate Republicans are mostly on the sidelines of the financial reform battle this week as Democratic senators wrangle amongst themselves over how tough to make the bill. That and the day’s other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.

Texas textbook proposal would require teaching high school students about “alternatives regarding long term entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare” and “efforts by global organizations to undermine U. S. sovereignty.”

Neocon Daniel Pipes sees Muslim women winning beauty pageants and deduces an affirmative action bias — presumably because no Muslim woman could outshine Judeo-Christian women on the same stage.

In recent days I’ve been trying to get my head around what I guess everyone else is trying to get their head around. The catch phrase is the ‘anti-incumbent mood’ in the country. But I’ve been wrestling with it because I’ve always thought that that’s sort of pundit-speak that tells us very little or at least too little to give us any real insight into what’s happening in our politics. It’s still an open question what’s going to happen in Arkansas tomorrow. But it seems like a foregone conclusion that Mitch McConnell’s handpicked protege is going to get crushed by Ron Paul’s son Rand. And in Pennsylvania, all the signs seem to be pointing Sestak beating 30 year incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D). Read More

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick has had a pretty rough run as governor and looked ripe for a pick off. But recent polls show him pulling back into the lead in a three way race. So I was wondering who the GOP had managed to field and why they weren’t doing any better. And, well, sounds like I’ve got at least part of the answer. Charlie Baker may not make a mark at the polls but he’s breaking new ground in bizarre (though not at all unethical) campaign expenses. First there’s the grand for the mechanical bull, the $1500 for the American Gladiator style jousting arena (which actually sounds pretty cool) and how about the special green screen photo booth where you can have your photo taken arm in arm with Baker and his running mate? Rachel Slajda has the rest of the story.

Down in the Florida Senate race, for a while it looked like Kendrick Meek was getting left behind in the dust by Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio in the senate candidate with major ethics scandal derby. But now it looks like Meek is definitely back in the game.

We’ve gotten a lot of interesting responses to the call out below. And I’m going to publish more of them. But I wanted to start with this one from TPM Reader AH. The tone will strike some as elitist. And AH’s email doesn’t really get down to business until a few sentences in. But it strikes a chord with me and dovetails at least to some extent with the accelerating pace of political involvement over recent years. The gist is: has the accelerating pace of mass political involvement simply made our politics less stable? Read More

Scam Navy Vets charity gave big bucks to Virginia AG Ken Cuccinelli.